Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 11:32 AM   Moonset 12:59 AM

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PMZ017 Northern Gulf Of California- 627 Pm Pdt Tue May 14 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.Wed night - S to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 4 seconds. Thu - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds. Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds. Fri - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds.Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second. Sat - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 2 seconds.Sat night - S to sw winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds. Sun - Variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 1 second. Sun night - S to sw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 2 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS65 KTWC 142033 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 133 PM MST Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm, mostly dry and locally breezy conditions will persist this week. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected each day through Thursday in the White Mountains. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Thursday, with highs warming to several degrees above normal Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Sunny to partly cloudy skies this afternoon across southeast Arizona with latest visible satellite imagery showing some cloud build-ups mainly along/near the higher terrain from Tucson eastward. Little if any precipitation is occurring except for the White Mountains where some light showers may be occurring. At this time, we haven't seen any lightning strikes in our forecast area.
This is all due to some mid level moisture in combination with strong daytime heating and a weak just off the southern California coast.

Over the next couple of days this aforementioned mid/upper low will shift eastward and as it does so will transition into an open wave.
While the system is weak, the combination of the mid level moisture in place along with the aid of some additional lift will continue to result in additional cloud build-ups Wednesday and especially Thursday. Once again, these will be focused mainly on the higher terrain of Graham and Greenlee Counties, where a few mainly dry thunderstorms are possible Wednesday/Thursday. Meanwhile, breezy winds will continue each afternoon this week, especially east of Tucson.

For Friday into the weekend, shortwave ridging will move through the area and with that, dry conditions return area-wide. With heights and thicknesses increasing, temperatures will nudge upward and Tucson will be approaching the 100 degree mark for the first time this season. The latest NBM has lowered probabilities a little bit with a 19% chance of hitting 100 Saturday and 16% Sunday.
Regardless, as temperatures heat up to above normal levels, it's a good time to keep heat safety in mind before triple digit heat really sets in over the upcoming weeks. Thereafter, a couple of dry weather systems will pass by early next week with additional breezes and a few degrees of cooling.

AVIATION
Valid through 16/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 9-12k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind SWLY thru WNWLY this afternoon at 8-15 kts becoming light and variable after 15/04Z. Tomorrow, SFC winds becoming SWLY thru WNWLY after 15/17Z at 9-16 kts.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through Thursday. Highs then warm to 3-5 degrees above normal Friday and 6-8 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the single digits to lower teens the next 7 days, with values in the mountains generally between 10- 20 percent. 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal wind trends this week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds appear to be Wednesday and Thursday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph. Southwest winds are expected on Wednesday and west-northwest winds on Thursday. There will be just enough mid level moisture in place through Thursday for a few buildups during the afternoon and early evening hours in the White Mountains, especially Thursday. Any storms that do develop will be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no measurable rainfall.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Puerto Penasco
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Tue -- 12:59 AM MST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:06 AM MST     1.81 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 AM MST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM MST     2.09 meters High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 AM MST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:34 PM MST     1.30 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:22 PM MST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM MST     3.09 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Tue -- 01:04 AM MST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:41 AM MST     -0.38 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:41 AM MST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM MST     -0.31 meters High Tide
Tue -- 11:35 AM MST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:57 PM MST     -0.52 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM MST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:00 PM MST     1.12 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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