Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:27PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Tonight..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday through Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet in the afternoon. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 229 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Synopsis.. A coastal trough will linger over the local waters today through Monday with waves of showers. This trough will move farther offshore Monday in advance of a weakening surface cold front. The cold front will settle south of the area late Tuesday as high pressure builds northwest of the region Wednesday. Strengthening onshore winds develop Thursday as high pressure builds over the carolinas and low pressure develops across the gulf of mexico.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 181544
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1044 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
The region will remain situated between high pressure and a
coastal trough until a cold front moves through by mid week,
followed by high pressure through mid to late week.

Near term through tonight
Through this afternoon: a pool of pwats around 1 inch focused
near a coastal trough will continue to advect onshore,
supporting isolated scattered showers. In some areas between
ksav and kchs, raised pops to account for expected
precipitation coverage per recent radar trends latest high
resolution model guidance. Despite clouds showers, high temps
in the upper 60s to lower 70s will be common, highest away from
the beaches.

Tonight: the coastal trough lifts toward the north and
northeast, as high pressure off new england pulls further into
the atlantic. The proximity to the trough and considerable low
level moisture will still allow for at least isolated showers.

As the trough starts to lift northeast overnight, the
stratocumulus will build down into more of a stratus layer, and
that along with some wetness to the grounds will allow for
patchy fog to form overnight, mainly to the west of i-95. Lows
will be several degrees above normal given the cloud cover and a
warm southeast to south low level flow.

Short term Monday through Wednesday
Any lingering precipitation over the forecast area due to the
coastal trough will shift east and offshore by mid-Monday morning as
the axis of mid and upper level troughing moves towards the forecast
area. Expansive cloud cover likely remains in place until a much
drier column pushes into the southeast once the trough and
associated cold front cross Tuesday afternoon or evening. The 18 00z
suite of models are suggesting a period of mainly light
precipitation is possible Tuesday morning as the front approaches
but soundings show relatively dry profiles through the lower
atmosphere and GFS ensemble mean precipitation values fail to
inspire confidence in plausibility, so unmentionable pops will be
maintained in the forecast.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
Dry conditions will prevail behind the front, with a minor cooldown
before moderating into late week. Model divergence increases by the
end of the week. Onshore flow and increasing moisture levels will
set the stage and a developing coastal trough or possible surface
low could provide the forcing for precipitation production heading
into the weekend.

Aviation 16z Sunday through Thursday
Rest of today and this evening:VFR ceilings, with brief flight
restrictions possible in light showers. Later tonight into
Monday morning, flight restrictions possible in low clouds and
fog.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
both terminals through mid-week, although brief periods of flight
restrictions will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning due
to the potential for showers and low clouds fog.

Marine
Through this afternoon: a trough located about 20-30 nm off the
georgia and south carolina coasts will push closer toward shore
as the day progresses. NE winds as high as 15-20 kt outside
charleston harbor and 10-15 kt on the harbor will clock more e
this afternoon at slightly lower speeds. Seas will average 2-4
ft, highest beyond 10-15 nm off the coast, and will include a
9-10 second period swell from the ese.

Tonight: the coastal trough across the waters will lift to the
north-northeast, allowing for easterly winds around 10-12 kt
early to become more variable in direction at speeds around 5-10
kt thereafter. Seas will still be as high as 2-4 ft, although
now highest on the outer georgia waters.

Monday through Friday: relatively benign conditions are
anticipated into mid-week over marine zones with high pressure
remaining as the dominant influence. Through Wednesday, expect
winds to peak in the 10 to 15 knot range with seas averaging 2
to 4 feet. Better model agreement indicates that a tightening
pressure gradient Thursday afternoon into Friday evening could
result in winds and seas reaching small craft advisory criteria.

Unfortunately, forecast uncertainty continues to decrease late
in the week as model guidance diverges regarding formation and
evolution of low pressure.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Spr
short term...

long term... Jmc
aviation... Spr
marine... Spr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi64 min N 8 62°F 1024 hPa (+2.0)58°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi74 min E 3.9 G 7.8 65°F 69°F4 ft1023.3 hPa (+1.5)61°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi34 min 67°F4 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi34 min N 5.1 G 8 67°F 65°F1024 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi69 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast61°F55°F83%1024 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi71 minN 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F75%1023.5 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE5NE7
1 day agoW6W5NW7W7W8W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Sun -- 02:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 AM EST     7.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:12 PM EST     7.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:43 PM EST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.756.16.876.353.52.21.51.62.43.54.75.86.77.16.85.74.12.41.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:11 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:54 AM EST     6.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:14 AM EST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     6.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:43 PM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.74.15.46.46.76.25.34.12.91.91.41.62.53.756.16.76.65.94.73.3210.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.