Saturday, May26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:23PM Saturday May 26, 2018 12:27 AM EDT (04:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:44PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 919 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots...decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms
showers likely in the afternoon
Sunday night..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night and Wednesday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 919 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will be east of area waters through early next week. Subtropical storm alberto is forecast to move north through the central gulf this weekend into early next week. As a result of the tropical system...winds and seas will increase over the weekend... Especially so on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 260150
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
950 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the atlantic will extend westward into the
forecast area on Saturday. Subtropical storm alberto will
slowly move northward across the gulf of mexico through the
weekend. Alberto could move onshore along the gulf coast early
next week and linger across the south through the middle of the
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The last of the lingering rains from earlier convection across
far western parts of jenkins and screven counties will come to
an end as cloud tops continue to warm and convective debris
clouds shrink in areal coverage. That leaves the area with
mostly a rainfree, warm and humid night, until maybe a few
showers advance onshore closer to daybreak along the south
carolina coast.

The biggest change with the late Friday evening update was to
include patchy fog along the NW tier after 2 or 3 am> this is to
account for some upslope flow in these areas, as well as to
account for the wet grounds from previous recent rains, plus the
formation and build down of stratus.

Previous discussion...

unlike the past couple of nights there is no longer any
evidence of the MCV and or mid level perturbation near the local
region. Because of that and the sea breeze having already
cleared the vast majority of the forecast region, plus we're
under the western fringes of surface and low level ridging, and
well within the mid and upper ridging, the risk for convection
has just about ended. The exceptions will be near and west of
us-301 in georgia through 9 or 10 pm, due to boundary
interaction and where we find our best moisture convergence. We
will carry pop as high as 40-50% as a result. Elsewhere, no
measurable rainfall will occur prior to midnight, except for
maybe a few hundredths in the charleston metro early this
evening as small and quick moving showers move onshore from the
ocean.

Then during the post-midnight period, there is enough low level
convergence and higher theta-e air that could spark a few
showers onshore the coast of our south carolina counties as we
draw closer to daybreak. Nothing higher than 20% chances are
necessary.

Stratus again appears favorable across our NW tier where there
is some upslope flow with onshore low level trajectories, but
not yet convinced on enough fog to warrant adding to the
forecast at this time.

Persistence in regards to low temps appears yet again the way to
go for tonight, with lows mainly a few degrees either side of
70f. Although a few parts of the francis marion could fall to
the mid 60s and some mid 70s can occur right along the immediate
coast.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Saturday and Saturday night: overall, this period should be
relatively quiet before rain chances increase through early next
week. Saturday will see the subtropical surface high extend into the
forecast area through the day. There could be some isolated
shower thunderstorm activity around in the morning along the coast
before the focus for rain chances shifts inland through the
afternoon. Aloft, ridging will actually temporarily strengthen and
extend back into georgia and the carolinas north of the circulation
associated with alberto over the gulf of mexico. This riding aloft
and lack of anything at the surface should keep late morning and
early afternoon convection to the isolated to scattered variety.

Then through the night the area should be rain free. Highs are
forecast to reach the upper 80s with very mild lows only in the
upper 60s and low 70s.

Sunday through Monday: the aforementioned ridge will shift northward
as alberto begins to approach the gulf coast. Deep tropical moisture
will spread in from the south with precipitable water values progged
to increase into the 2.2-2.4 inch range by Sunday night. There is
good model agreement that a heavy band of rainfall will lift
northward across the forecast area in the Sunday evening through
Monday morning time period. Rain chances are in the 80-90 percent
range during this time, and this will likely extend through much of
the day on Monday. All of the ingredients are there for a widespread
significant rainfall during this time, and the forecast features 1-2
inches as of now. Also, the forecast area remains in a slight risk
area for excessive rainfall from the weather prediction center.

Minor, nuisance flooding seems probable but it appears rainfall
should be progressive enough to preclude a significant flash flood
threat. With plenty of clouds and showers thunderstorms around,
temperatures will be held in check with highs topping out in the low
to mid 80s each day. Overnight lows will likely remain in the 70s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Unsettled weather will generally continue as the area remains
between low pressure near the mississippi valley and high pressure
over the sargasso sea. The expectation is for atmospheric moisture
content to trend downwards through the second half of the week,
though there is significant forecast uncertainty owing to
uncertainty in the position of the low as it progresses generally
northeastward. Temps will be near normal through the period.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Both kchs and ksav will be predominatelyVFR through 00z Sunday.

The higher probabilities of flight restrictions in low stratus
and or ground fog will occur inland from the terminals late
tonight and early Saturday, but some temporary reduction in
ceilings and or visibility is still possible.

The bulk of the shra tsra will be inland from the airports
Saturday afternoon, so nothing more than a few hours of vcsh
during midday as the sea breeze pushes through. Both sites will
experience modest wind gusts in the afternoon, getting a boost
from the sea breeze during peak heating.

Extended aviation outlook: increasingly unsettled weather is expected
Sunday through the early part of next week. Periods of flight
restrictions in showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Marine
Large high pressure centered over bermuda will remain over the
region tonight. South winds will continue with speeds averaging
around 10 or 10-15 kt, a little less in charleston harbor. Wave
heights are forecast to range from 2-3 ft within 20 nm to 3-4
ft beyond 20 nm. No more than isolated showers will occur, as
they advance from near the western wall of the gulf stream in
closer to shore by late.

Saturday through Wednesday: high pressure to the east will drive
southerly flow on Saturday. Winds will turn more southeasterly on
Sunday before a boundary lifts northward through the waters with a
return to southerly flow from Sunday night onward. Wind could surge
into the 15-20 knot range at times through the period. Seas will
gradually increase and could reach 6 feet on Sunday from near 20 nm
and out through Monday morning. A small craft advisory could be
needed during this time.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term... Bsh
long term... Ceb
aviation... Bsh
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi88 min S 8.9 77°F 1016 hPa (+1.0)74°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 77°F 77°F3 ft1016.1 hPa (+0.5)77°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi28 min 77°F3 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi40 min SSE 7 G 9.9 78°F 81°F1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi53 minS 710.00 miFair77°F71°F83%1016.3 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi35 minSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F85%1016 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S6SE6SE9
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1 day agoS5CalmS5SW3W5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE5SE5E7SE6SE9SE9SE6SE3SE4SE5CalmCalm
2 days agoS8S8S4S3CalmCalmCalmS5S8SW8SW5SW4S8SE9W9SE7SE8SE8SE9S6SE5S4S5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:45 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:24 AM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:57 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:03 PM EDT     8.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.4-00.623.75.36.67.37.164.32.20.4-0.30.21.43.256.77.88.27.76.34.1

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:10 PM EDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.400.82.54.466.96.96.24.93.31.60.3-0.20.31.83.85.87.27.77.56.653.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.