Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:41PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:18 AM EDT (05:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:47PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 908 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north northwest in the morning, then becoming north northeast 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet building to 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet after midnight. Inland waters rough. Showers likely.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 8 to 11 feet with occasional seas up to 14 feet. Inland waters very rough. A chance of showers.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Inland waters choppy.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Friday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 908 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis.. High pressure will shift east of the waters...while a cold front approach the waters from the west Monday night...generating moderate south to southwest winds across the waters. The front will move across the waters Tuesday. Strong high pressure will build well north of the waters, resulting in a nor'easter event with a substantial increase in winds and seas above advisory criteria late Tuesday through Thursday. Winds and seas will decrease on Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 23, 2019 at 1200 utc... 60 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 72 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 80 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 250133
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
933 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will persist through early Monday. Low pressure
will cross the region Monday night followed by a strong cold
front Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the north
during mid week and then persist from late week into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Forecast looks good and matches current trends well. No changes
are needed at this time.

The region will remain along the western flanks of subtropical
high pressure tonight. Low-level moisture will slowly increase
from the south, but should remain shallow enough to support
only shallow ground fog. No meaningful impacts are anticipated.

A band of high clouds will move from west-east this evening,
clearing the middle south carolina coast after midnight.

Stratocumulus will develop across northeast florida and far
southeast georgia after 3 am, and approach portions of mcintosh
and long counties by daybreak. It will be a considerably warmer
night with lows ranging from the lower 50s inland to the upper
50s near 60 along the beaches.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
Monday: high pressure offshore will continue to pump a SW to s
return flow into the forecast area. This should result in even
milder temps with surface dewpoints mostly in the lower to mid 50s.

Most of the clouds early will be high level clouds with moisture
advection at 850 mb likely to result in scattered cumulus fields
into early-mid afternoon. Temps are expected to warm to the mid and
upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80 degrees inland. A few spotty
showers may develop in the afternoon along the sc resultant sea
breeze but the GFS was an outlier with it's amount of convective qpf
across the chs tri-county. Late in the day, an approaching upper
wave will dig into the southeast states with showers and isolated
tstms developing upstream. This activity is expected to reach our
inland areas closer to sunset.

Monday night and Tuesday: increasing deeper level moisture and
upper forcing is expected to result in scattered numerous showers
and perhaps a few tstms into our region Monday night. Isolated to
scattered showers may persist on Tuesday, especially ga zones.

Our highest pops in the 60 percent range are along north of
i-16. Overall instability is not impressive and surface dew
points in the 50s suggest our potential for strong thunder is
low, especially since much of convection will occur after dusk.

Qpf amounts will also tend to be lower-end less than 1 4 inch.

Low pressure off the carolina coast early Tuesday will move away,
allowing a strong backdoor cold front to drop into the area from the
north. Cooler northeast flow will increase from N to S across the
region Tuesday with temps struggling to get into the 60s if clouds
tend to hang in all day which easily could happen. Shower chances
appear a bit higher across southern ga where a secondary short wave
will swing through late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday: another coastal low will develop offshore of the florida
coast and it appears wet weather will reside off our coast and down
over florida with this synoptic setup. Our region will see a strong
wedge of high pressure extending across ga and the carolinas.

Skies should become partly sunny by the afternoon with highs
only in the lower 60s north to mid 60s inland south ga. Gusty
northeast winds should persist along the beaches and barrier
islands most all day.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Dry high pressure will gradually move offshore, bringing a
return to the warm temperatures. Next weekend looks particularly
warm with highs reaching 80f or higher in many spots. The next
front could approach late in the weekend.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Vfr. Shallow ground fog could impact both kchs and ksav prior to
daybreak, but no meaningful impacts are expected. There is a
chance vsbys could vary greatly at the ksav ASOS if a fog bank
settles near the sensor during non-observer augmented hours.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions possible Monday
night through Tuesday night.

Marine
Tonight: E SE winds to start will turn toward the S SW at 5-15
kt later on as high pressure retreats offshore and low pressure
approaches from the west. Seas of 2-3 feet are expected.

Monday, s-sw flow could become gusty in the chs harbor during
the afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. The main marine concern with
a strong backdoor cold front moving south through the waters
with significant northeast surging and building seas in it's
wake. A secondary low moving to the south Tuesday night through
Wednesday will enhance the gradient even further. Gale
watches warnings may be required for some of our waters given
the potential for enhanced gradients and periods of 40-50 kt low
level geostrophic flow. We expect scas and or possible gale
watches to go up sometime on Monday as this event unfolds.

Rip currents: there will be enhanced risk for rip currents
beginning Tuesday as elevated northeast winds and swell impact
the beaches.

Tides coastal flooding
Between strong high pressure building from the north and low
pressure developing off the coast, strong northeast winds will
create elevated tide levels along the coast Tuesday through
Thursday. While astronomical factors do not favor tidal
flooding, probabilistic guidance depicts a low chance for minor
salt water flooding, especially Wednesday. We will continue to
assess this scenario during the next several days.

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service. Repairs are expected to
be completed Monday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi78 min SE 7 65°F 1022 hPa (+0.0)60°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi28 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 63°F2 ft1021.9 hPa (-0.0)62°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi18 min 63°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi30 min 66°F 64°F1022.7 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi23 minSW 410.00 miFair63°F59°F88%1022.3 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi85 minSE 610.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1022 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E12E9E9E8SE8SE9
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1 day agoW5W5W5W4W3W3CalmCalmN5NE7NE9NE9NE6E6E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     8.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM EDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.78.17.66.241.6-0.1-0.30.523.75.36.57.175.841.90.3-0.10.61.93.55.1

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EDT     7.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:35 PM EDT     6.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.77.56.54.931.1-0.1-0.30.72.44.25.86.76.864.731.40.2-0.10.72.345.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.