Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 209 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Southwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters becoming choppy late.
Sunday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest in the early afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters choppy.
Monday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters choppy.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of rain.
Tuesday..East southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Rain and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A chance of rain.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of rain and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of rain.
Thursday..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 209 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis.. A cold front will move across our coastal waters on Sunday morning, accompanied by scattered showers. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of the front this evening, followed by a surge of northwesterly winds behind the front on Sunday. High pressure will build eastward from the tennessee valley to the carolina coast by Monday evening, with winds becoming onshore by early on Monday morning. A warm front will approach our waters from the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Low pressure is then forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico on Wednesday, moving over the florida peninsula and into the atlantic waters by Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 182323
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
623 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

A cold front will pass through the area late tonight into
Sunday morning then will stall south and east of the region.

High pressure will build over the area and will prevail through
early next week. A series of low pressure systems could then
track northeast along the stationary front, producing unsettled
conditions later Tuesday through mid to late week. High
pressure will expand over the region late week or next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
A pronounced cold front is moving across tennessee into deep
south early this evening and is delineated by a sharp line of
showers tstms. The cold front and accompanying line of
convection will move steadily east tonight, reaching far
interior areas around 3 am and coastal areas by 6 am. Do expect
at least some weakening of the line as it moves across
southeast south carolina and southeast georgia during the
instability minimum, but upper forcing associated with the right
entrance region of the upper jet will remain robust. Rap
showalter values go slightly negative just ahead of the front
suggesting the presence of some weak elevated instability which
may be just enough to support a risk for a few tstms despite no
surface based instability. Plan to introduce a slight chance of
tstms for the early morning hours. High resolution models are
similar in showing a distinct line moving west-east across the
forecast area, so 30% pops may be a bit low. Will keep pops
capped at 30% for this update, these may need to be increased
with subsequent updates.

Lake winds: winds will increase on lake moultrie tonight ahead
of a cold front, then lull late as the front passes. At this
time it appears as though winds will mainly stay below advisory
levels 25 kt in the warm advection regime given the lake water
temperatures in the 50s leading to less than favorable vertical
mixing profiles. The strongest gusts will likely occur around
the lake shores.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Clouds and a few showers could linger early Sunday; otherwise, the
shortwave trough and associated surface cold front will push quickly
offshore Sunday morning, followed by sunshine and drier conditions.

Downslope flow and insolation will combine to offset cold air
advection, pushing high temps into the mid upper 60s most locations.

The cold front will eventually stall south east of the region, and
this stationary front could play a role in our weather beginning

Dry high pressure will expand over the area Sunday night, yielding
clear skies and light winds. Strong radiational cooling will result,
allowing temps to drop into the mid 30s inland and upper 30s to
lower 40s closer to the coast. Accordingly, we introduced a mention
of frost into the late Sunday night early Monday forecast, and we
may need to consider a frost advisory for Sunday night for some
portion of inland zones where the winds would be more likely to go
calm. A few of the chilliest inland locales could even bottom out
briefly around 32f early Monday, but the probabilities for freezing
temps remain too low to justify a freeze watch.

Cool high pressure will persist Monday, limiting high temps to the
upper 50s north to the mid 60s far south.

Monday night into Tuesday: east of an amplifying longwave upper
trough, forcing for ascent, moisture advection and a coastal trough
will combine to produce increasing thickening clouds, and showers
should eventually develop. Latest guidance suggests that sufficient
dry air will persist to maintain rain-free conditions at least
through Monday night. Then, the chance for showers should increase
Tuesday. Coverage of showers remains somewhat uncertain due to a
persistent south southeast to north northwest moisture gradient. The
latest forecast advertises Tuesday afternoon pops ranging from
likely far south coastal waters to slight chance well inland.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The period looks potentially unsettled though there are substantial
differences in the global models. A series of shortwaves jet maxima
will dive into the longwave trough anchored over the eastern u.S,
pushing the trough deeper into the gulf of mexico. Meanwhile, a
surface stationary front will persist south east of the forecast
area. This scenario could support serial surface cyclogenesis over
the gulf, with individual lows tracking northeast along the
stationary front and just off the southeast coast through mid to
late week. Given ongoing uncertainty regarding the
evolution positions of key features, maintained ongoing
conservative pops in the 20-30% range into late week.

Aviation 23z Saturday through Thursday
Primary concerns:
* wind shift associated with cold front
* low-end risk for llws
a cold front is on tap to cross the kchs and ksav terminals
early Sunday, roughly in the 09-11z timeframe. A broken line of
showers will accompany the front, but some weakening is
possible prior to the front reaching the terminals. Will carry
vcsh 09-12z with low-end ifr CIGS for now. There is a low-risk
for tstms given the presence of some elevated instability, but
the risk is too low to justify a mention. Pre-frontal low-level
jetting will intensify this evening, but there looks to be
enough surface winds to keep conditions below low-level wind
shear thresholds. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the
front with steady clearing expected.

Extended aviation outlook: periods of flight restrictions are
possible later Tuesday or Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Tonight: high pressure will be giving way to an approaching
cold front. Elevated south southwest winds will occur ahead of
the front, although will be limited somewhat given the warm
advection pattern leading to less favorable vertical mixing
profiles. Advisories will go into effect this evening across the
charleston county nearshore waters which will be first to see
25 kt wind gusts and 6 foot seas, then around midnight for the
rest of the waters, except charleston harbor which should hold
off until a bit later.

Sunday through Thursday: in the wake of cold fropa, offshore
winds will diminish, and small craft advisory conditions should
end by midday Sunday across nearshore waters and around mid-
afternoon beyond 20 nm.

Between high pressure building from the northwest and an offshore
stationary front, expect an extended period of northeast winds next
week. As a series of surface low pressure systems develop and track
along the stationary front off the southeast coast, the pressure
gradient is expected to increase mid to late week. Small craft
advisory winds and or seas could develop over portions of the waters
Wednesday night through Friday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 am est Sunday for amz330.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon est
Sunday for amz352-354.

Small craft advisory until noon est Sunday for amz350.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Sunday for amz374.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi85 min S 8.9 65°F 1012 hPa (+0.0)62°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi95 min S 16 G 18 70°F 69°F3 ft1011.8 hPa (-0.5)62°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi55 min 68°F3 ft

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi30 minS 310.00 miFair61°F55°F83%1012.9 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi32 minSSW 710.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4N3N3N4N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW10S12
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE8N10
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4NW5NW7NW5N6W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Sat -- 01:44 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EST     8.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:21 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:54 PM EST     7.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
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Sat -- 01:46 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EST     7.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:55 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:05 PM EST     7.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.