Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:55 AM EDT (05:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:32PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 1017 Pm Edt Wed Jul 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday through Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1017 Pm Edt Wed Jul 18 2018
Synopsis.. Offshore winds will prevail through the weekend as waves of low pressure develop and move eastward along a stalled frontal boundary that will extend across the georgia waters. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms will impact the coastal waters from Thursday afternoon through the weekend. Atlantic high pressure will then gradually build westward towards the florida peninsula early next week, pushing low pressure westward towards the lower mississippi valley.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 190309
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1109 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the region from the north tonight
and will stall over or close our area Thursday and Thursday
night. The front will then slowly lift north as a warm front
Friday. A trough of low pressure will then persist into the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to diminish over the
area early tonight, while a few showers light rain remain over
interior parts of southeast georgia. Expect most areas to be dry
in the next hour or two and likely remain that way for much of
the night as the atmosphere has been well worked over. Guidance
suggests at least a few showers and or thunderstorms being
possible as a weak cold front slowly enters into the region from
the north late tonight, before stalling over the area through
daybreak. Given the position of the front reaching northern
areas later tonight, precip chances will be highest over the
tri-county area late, where chances of showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast.

Low temps will start off slightly cooler where the bulk of
evening convection occurred (tri-county area), but will likely
remain mild overnight, especially within a light southerly flow
south of the approaching front. In general, temps should dip
into the low mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. Late
tonight, patchy shallow fog will be possible for locations that
received rain. However, probabilities coverage are too low to
mention in the forecast at this time.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Saturday
Thursday through Friday: a cold front will stall over or close to
the region, and a deep-layered trough will reside over the region.

Pooling of rich moisture featuring pwats well over 2 inches will
translate to an active period with numerous widespread showers
thunderstorms. Maximum pops are capped at likely, with greatest
coverage from late morning into early evening both days. However,
locally greater pops will eventually be required, especially within
near term forecast updates. Also, convection could persist through
Thursday night without the usual significant diurnal decrease in
coverage. The primary concern focuses on the potential for locally
excessive rainfall. The threat for severe weather locally damaging
wind gusts should remain low. Clouds precipitation should hold
max temperatures in the 80s, below normal for mid-july.

Saturday: models agree that somewhat drier air will wrap around the
deep longwave upper trough over the eastern CONUS and into our
region. This should result in somewhat reduced coverage of diurnal
convection as compared with Thursday Friday, and temperatures should
respond by recovering into the more typical lower 90s away from the
coast. Warmer temperatures could produce stronger instability as
compared with the next couple of days, perhaps raising the threat
for a few pulse severe thunderstorms with brief isolated damaging
wind gusts.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The models are in good agreement showing a strong trough over the
east coast Saturday night through Monday, with it weakening on
Tuesday. However, they don't agree as much with the surface pattern.

The models hint at a trough inland Saturday night into Sunday.

Another cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Sunday
into Monday. Then, they disagree over whether the front makes it to
our area or stays to the north. Regardless, the end result will be a
rainy weather pattern.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Precip activity will then likely decrease with both terminals
experiencingVFR conditions for much of tonight. However, a few
additional showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out
approaching daybreak Thursday as a cold front approaches from
the north late tonight. Greater chances of showers thunderstorms
should occur Thursday afternoon evening as the front stalls
over the region. Vcts has been included to account for
afternoon evening thunderstorms beginning around 16z at the sav
terminal, then 19z at the chs terminal.

Extended aviation outlook: most of the timeVFR conditions will
prevail. However, episodes of flight restrictions are likely in
convection, and low ceilings could occur even outside any
showers thunderstorms during the late night early morning hours.

Marine
Tonight: showers and or thunderstorms will continue to drift
over coastal waters, before gradually decreasing in coverage.

However, additional showers and thunderstorms could develop over
the waters late as a weak cold front shifts into the area from
the north late, before stalling near the region around daybreak.

Given the setup, stronger wind gusts will be possible with
storms. Outside shower and thunderstorm activity, a southwest
wind is expected to remain around 15 kt or less until turning
north behind the front. Seas will be no higher than 3-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: thunderstorms will produce locally
hazardous conditions through the period. A cold front will stall
over the waters Thursday and Thursday night, pushing winds into the
east southeast at 15 kt or less. Then, the boundary will lift north
as a warm front Friday, and winds will turn into the southwest and
could increase into the 15-20 knot range at times through early next
week. Seas only 1-3 feet through Friday will build to 3-5 feet,
highest beyond 20 nm, this weekend into early next week.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Dpb
short term... Spr
long term... Ms
aviation... Dpb ned
marine... Dpb ned


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi55 min SSW 6 80°F 1014 hPa (+1.0)76°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi65 min SSW 14 G 16 84°F 85°F3 ft1013.7 hPa (+0.6)78°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi55 min 85°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi37 min S 2.9 G 6 82°F 87°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi60 minSW 510.00 miFair79°F71°F79%1014.2 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi62 minWSW 610.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3SW4SW7S8S8SW8SW3SE4S17
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW6SW5SW5SW6SW6SW6S7SE7SE5S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Thu -- 12:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:55 AM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:40 PM EDT     7.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.96.47.47.775.33.11.1-0.1-00.82.23.85.46.77.57.66.74.92.91.10.50.81.9

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     7.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     7.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.66.87.375.94.22.40.9-0012.64.45.977.36.75.642.310.50.92.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.