Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:59PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:29 PM EDT (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:41AMMoonset 11:57PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..East northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with a few gusts to 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters rough. A chance of showers.
Saturday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers through the night.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Sunday night..East southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 311 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis.. Strong high pressure will be to the north tonight, then to the northeast over the weekend. An area of low pressure will track eastward across area from the northern gulf coast early next week. This low will be to the north toward the middle of next week. Elevated winds and seas will continue through this period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 202000
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
400 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail into Sunday. A low
pressure system will approach the area late Sunday and will then
slowly move up the coast through the middle of next week. Weak
high pressure will return late next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
The mid-levels will consist of a ridge approaching from the
west. At the surface, high pressure located over the great lakes
region in the evening will shift towards the oh valley
overnight. The southeastern periphery of this high will continue
to bring subsidence to our region, resulting in dry weather.

Clear to mostly clear skies are expected for the bulk of the
area, with the exception being around mcintosh county where some
clouds may persist. The combination of clear skies, very light
or calm winds, and low dew points will allow for good
radiational cooling. We generally went under guidance, a few
degrees in some locations. Lows should bottom out in the mid
40s, except lower 40s far inland. The beaches and vicinity
should be in the lower 50s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Saturday and Saturday night: aloft, low amplitude riding will
translate across the forecast area ahead of a deep upper low
crossing the central conus. Surface high pressure will sit off to
the northeast and drive a cool northeast to easterly flow through
the day. Clouds during the day will be mainly confined to coastal
georgia where stratocumulus will begin to spread onshore in the
afternoon. Highs will be cool and below normal, ranging from the mid
70s inland to the upper 60s low 70s at the coast. Overnight, little
change to the pattern with lows ranging from the upper 40s to the
mid 50s along the georgia coast.

Sunday through Monday: the forecast becomes increasingly active late
in the weekend and early next week as a strongly forced system moves
into the region. On Sunday, the aforementioned upper low will move
into the lower mississippi valley, and the first shot of shortwave
energy will move through ahead of the low. Overall Sunday will bring
increasing cloud cover and notable moistening of the column. There
may be enough forcing and subtle low level convergence to kick off a
few showers in the afternoon, and the forecast features 20-30
percent rain chances.

The most interesting part of the forecast comes late Sunday night
and Monday. Precipitable water values are progged to surge into the
1.4-1.6 inch range (in excess of the 90th percentile based on
climatology), coincident with excellent difluent flow aloft and
strong low level convergence isentropic ascent. There is good model
consensus showing precipitation rapidly breaking out in the early
morning hours on Monday across southeast georgia and spreading
northeastward through the afternoon. There is even good agreement on
a subtle surface wave feature along the coastal trough that could
further enhance the rainfall potential. Models have seemingly
increased the rainfall total potential and place the forecast area
in the bullseye. Following the most up to date wpc forecast results
in a very beneficial widespread 2-3 inches with potential for
locally higher amounts. There remains some thunder potential, though
mainly for southeast georgia and the adjacent coastal waters. The
severe threat looks to be rather low though, and this system
certainly looks to be more of a rain maker. Precipitation coverage
and intensity will focus more into southeast south carolina later in
the day, and should begin to diminish across southeast georgia. Rain
chances across the entire day are in the 90-100 percent range.

Long term Monday night through Friday
A closed upper low over the southeast on Tuesday will get absorbed
by a stronger shortwave dropping out of the midwest during the
middle of next week. Concurrently at the surface, an area of low
pressure will lift northeast out of southern georgia Monday night
and then move slowly up the coast. Weak high pressure will return
late week as the surface low continues to move away from the area
into the northeast u.S. Main chances for rain will come early in the
period as the low drifts directly over the area. Temperatures will
be near normal.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
18z tafs:VFR.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions in reduced
ceilings and visibilities are expected to develop and spread
across the region Sunday night. These conditions should persist
through at least Monday night with breezy southeasterly winds.

Marine
Tonight: high pressure located over the great lakes region in
the evening will shift towards the oh valley overnight. The
southeastern periphery of this high will continue to influence
the coastal waters, allowing modest pressure rises. E to ne
winds should prevail, strongest over the ga waters where the
gradient will initially be more enhanced, gradually weakening
overnight. The small craft advisory for amz354 is still
scheduled to expire at 7 pm. Models hint that some 6 ft waves
may persist around the 18-20 nm portion of the zone for maybe
1-2 hours beyond that, but we currently don't feel this
necessitates a large enough area or time span to warrant
extending the advisory. The advisory for amz374 will be in
effect all night due to wind gusts and elevated seas.

Saturday through Wednesday: high pressure to the northeast will
drive elevated east or northeasterly flow across the local waters
into Sunday. Winds will generally top out in the 15-20 knot range.

Seas up to 6 feet will continue in the outer georgia waters into
Saturday night. Then Sunday and Sunday night, an area of low
pressure will approach from the west and work to tighten the
pressure gradient. Winds will steadily increase Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in winds in the 25-30 knot range and solid small
craft advisory conditions across all waters. There is even a low end
chance for gales to develop depending on exactly how the southeast
flow sets up with the pinched gradient. Seas are expected to
increase significantly on Monday as a result, with 10 ft seas
possible inside of 20 nm. Conditions will improve Tuesday into
Wednesday as the surface low pulls away from the region.

Rip currents: elevated onshore winds in the 15-20 knot range,
astronomical influences, and some swell energy will result in a
moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches on Saturday.

A prolonged stretch of moderate to perhaps strong onshore winds and
larger surf, first due to high pressure, then as low pressure passes
nearby early next week, will lead to an enhanced risk of rip
currents at the beaches.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for amz354.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Ect
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi150 min NE 19 62°F 1026 hPa (+0.0)51°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi40 min NE 23 G 29 59°F 65°F7 ft1023.7 hPa (-1.0)51°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi30 min 66°F7 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi42 min N 9.9 G 22 62°F 67°F1024.5 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi35 minNNE 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast63°F48°F60%1024.7 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi37 minNE 17 G 2610.00 miOvercast63°F51°F65%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jones Creek entrance, Hampton River, Georgia
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Jones Creek entrance
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Fri -- 12:46 AM EDT     8.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:24 PM EDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.38.57.75.93.71.50.1-00.92.44.15.56.576.95.8420.3-0.10.62.145.8

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:35 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:32 PM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:49 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.17.66.44.82.91.20-0.112.74.55.96.66.664.73.11.50.2-0.20.62.44.56.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.