Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 5:01 AM   Moonset 6:59 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 331 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Friday - Southwest winds around 10 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 331 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis -
high pressure ridge will gradually shift south and east through Thursday with breezy south winds expected at times. Offshore winds develop by Thursday night as a cold front approaches the region. Evening southerly wind surges may lead to cautionary conditions for small craft each night until the cold front arrives by Friday night. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Brief period of strong northerly winds possible in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KCHS 071115 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 715 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
At daybreak, KCLX detected a cluster of showers and isolated thunderstorms was located just north of the Santee River, track to the east. This convection should remain just outside the forecast area. Temperatures will begin the day in the upper 60s to around 70.

The axis of a broad mid-level trough will ripple off the coast during the early daylight hours this morning. H5 heights will increase through the day as a ridge axis approaches from west, positioned over the forecast area tonight. The combination of mostly sunny conditions and rising 1000-850 mb thicknesses should support high temperatures in the low 90s across SE GA to around 90 across the SC Lowcountry. Recent runs of the HRRR indicates that a weak sea breeze will develop late this afternoon, possibly traveling one or two counties inland before sunset this evening. It is possible that isolated showers may develop along the sea breeze across portions of the SC Lowcountry late this afternoon, highlighted with SCHC PoPs.

Tonight: Conditions should remain dry as the H5 ridge axis passes over the forecast area. Conditions tonight will feature partly cloudy sky with light WSW winds. Low temperatures should favor values around 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Wednesday: The Southeast U.S. will still be positioned on the western grip of Atlantic high pressure as a series of surface lows pass across the northern CONUS. Conditions will remain dry with a mix of clouds and sun. The main focus for the day is on temperatures, with an unseasonably hot day forecast. Highs will reach the low 90s, with areas in southeast Georgia reaching the mid 90s. The beaches however will be cooler, topping out in the mid 80s.
Record setting high temperatures are possible Wednesday (see Climate section below). The good news is that dew points should mix out in the afternoon, keeping heat index values only a few degrees higher than the ambient air temperatures. Overnight temps will remain mild with mins in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A strong cold front will approach the area from the northeast Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. While the bulk of the day Thursday appears to be dry, thunderstorms could develop in the early evening and begin to move into the forecast area. Guidance shows signals of a MCV developing upstream, which complicates the forecast due to much dependence on its evolution and propagation. Additionally, the timing of the severe potential remains a bit uncertain with the NAM depicting storms to move through late Thursday night, meanwhile the global models trend toward an earlier evening arrival. Nonetheless, the environment could be supportive of a notable severe weather threat with another day of above normal temperatures, resulting in SBCAPE values in excess of 2,000 J/kg. Deep layer shear looks to be on the order of 35-45 knots. Temperatures Thursday will reach the low/mid 90s, with heat indices a few degrees higher, but below the 100 degree mark. Similarly, overnight we expect lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Guidance depicts another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday associated with a shortwave swinging across the northern Gulf states and the actual passage of the cold front. Timing is rather uncertain, but activity could be ongoing from the previous night, with deeper convection developing as early as late morning. Signals of yet another MCV approaching from the upstream Deep South/Gulf convection makes this forecast particularly tricky, especially in terms of the severe threat. Regardless, we will likely see convection at some point during the day Friday with deep moisture and forcing in place. Temperatures will be slightly cooler due to convection and the FROPA, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will gradually build in the wake of the front, bringing dry, rain-free conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFs: The terminals should remain VFR through the TAF period. Terminals will remain dry with southwest winds peaking during the heat of the afternoon around 10 kts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
High pressure will remain centered south of the region today and tonight. Winds should generally remain from the SSW between 10-15 kts through today and tonight. Seas are forecast to range between 2- 4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain hold over the local marine waters. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft are forecast through Wednesday night. Winds and seas will increase/build Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches. Small Craft Advisories are possible Thursday/Thursday night as gusts approach 25 kt, and again Friday night behind the FROPA. Conditions will improve over the weekend with high pressure gradually building in from the west. W/SW winds will drop to 10-15 kt and seas will diminish to 3 ft or less.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to elevated astronomical tides over the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including Downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides Tuesday through Thursday.

CLIMATE
May 7: KCHS: 93/1977 KSAV: 94/1977

May 8: KCHS: 93/1986 KSAV: 96/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Wolf Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM EDT     -1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM EDT     8.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wolf Island, south end, Georgia, Tide feet

Old Tower
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EDT     7.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:39 PM EDT     8.92 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia, Tide feet

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