Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:15 PM EDT (01:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:19PMMoonset 11:54PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north northeast in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis.. High pressure will move east of area waters through tonight. A cold front will slide into northern waters Wednesday afternoon, and move just to the south of area waters Wednesday night. Isolated to scattered Thunderstorms will be possible along this front. Strong high pressure will build to the north Thursday, then weaken and move to the northeast Friday. With the strong high to the north, a surge of higher winds is expected Thursday, with advisory level conditions possible into Friday. Another cold front is expected to move southeast across area waters Saturday night, with a high building behind it, which will result in another surge of higher winds into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 170028
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
828 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
Above normal temperatures will prevail until a cold front
crosses the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Cooler high
pressure will then move in through late week before a stronger
cold front pushes through Saturday night.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Tonight: isolated showers continue mainly along previous precip
outflow boundary collisions upstream and over inland most zones
early tonight. Expect isolated showers thunderstorms to struggle
strengthening considerably while slowly progressing east over
inland zones early tonight given diurnal heat loss and the
position of a mid upper lvl ridge of high pressure extending
from the atlantic over northern florida and southeast georgia.

However, an exception remains over the tri-county area early
tonight where sufficient moisture, instability and marginal bulk
shear remain along the northern fringes of the ridge well ahead
of a sfc front shifting slowly over the midlands and south of
more significant large-scale ascent associated with the right-
rear quadrant of a h250 jet passing north. Given the setup, a
stronger storm can not be ruled out over northern areas into the
first half of the night with strong winds gusts being the
primary concern, but a majority of precip activity should come
in the form of isolated to scattered showers and general
thunderstorms that slowly progress east over the area and
eventually to coastal regions later tonight, especially in
southeast south carolina.

Late tonight, the mid upper lvl ridge will flatten out in response
to a trough crossing the great lakes and the ohio valley. The result
will be the mid-level flow taking on a more westerly component,
which should then provide a stronger push to the upstream stationary
surface front. The proximity of the front should allow showers
to persist into daybreak. Fog and or low stratus are also possible
late tonight, mainly for locations that have seen precip before
daybreak. However, increasing clouds associated with the approaching
front should limit the overall fog coverage to patchy. Otherwise,
expect a rather mild night ahead of the front with lows only
dipping into the lower 70s inland to mid upper 70s at the coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Zonal flow aloft will push a cold front into the area late
Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, an unseasonably warm
and humid airmass will be in place with pws around 1.75". Partly
sunny skies and compression ahead of the front will push high
temps into the mid to upper 80s. Weak forcing along and ahead of
the front should support isolated to scattered showers, along
with a few tstms given modest instability. The better forcing
will be across southern sc during the afternoon where a weak
wave may develop along the front. Severe potential appears quite
low due to limited instability.

The front should push through in earnest Wednesday night,
pushing any residual precipitation off the coast and ushering in
cooler, drier air after midnight. Wednesday night will be 10-15
degrees cooler than the night before, while Thursday's low mid
70s highs will be about 15 degrees cooler.

Temps will warm a few degrees by Friday as the surface high
modifies and shifts off the nc coast.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Noticeably cooler and drier conditions will persist late week
heading into the weekend; only a brief period of temperature
moderation will occur as the surface high shifts offshore prior
to another cold front likely arriving into the area this
weekend, ushering in additional cooling. Chance pops are
advertised Saturday into Sunday given the proximity of the
front. Dry and much cooler high pressure then builds back in
behind the departing front.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions should prevail through much of the night at both chs
and sav terminals. However, flight restrictions are possible late
tonight, especially at the chs terminal where showers and or
thunderstorms slowly push toward the coast. For this reason, vcsh
remains at the chs terminal between 10-15z Wednesday. Confidence
remains too low to include mention of precip at near the sav
terminal. Fog and or low stratus will also be a concern late tonight
at both terminals. However, guidance remains split in regards to
impacts directly at the terminals. Should any precip occur before
daybreak at a terminal, the chances of fog and or low status will
increase substantially. Conditions should remain mainlyVFR outside
an isolated shower or thunderstorm possibility Wednesday afternoon
or evening.

Extended aviation outlook: low stratus and or ground fog are
possible during the morning hours.

Marine
Tonight: quiet conditions will prevail as a inland front draws
closer to the region through the night. This setup will promote
a modest southwest flow with speeds generally topping out in the
10-15 knot range. Seas will average 2-3 feet.

Small craft advisories increasingly likely by late Wednesday
night or Thursday as NE winds strengthen behind the cold front.

Thereafter, winds seas will gradually diminish as high pressure
shifts off the eastern united states coast. Winds and seas could
increase again Sunday as another cold front crosses the region.

Climate
Record high maximum and record high minimum temperatures will
be challenged until midweek. We have listed records that fall
within 2-3 degrees of forecast values.

Date location record high record high minimum
wed 10 17 chs - 70 (1999)
sav 91 (1921) -

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Dpb
short term... Jrl
long term... Jmc
aviation... Dpb jrl
marine... Dpb jrl
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi76 min SSE 5.1 80°F 1019 hPa (+1.0)75°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi26 min SE 9.7 G 12 82°F 82°F2 ft1019.5 hPa (+1.0)75°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi46 min 82°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi28 min SSE 6 G 8 82°F 83°F1020.4 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi21 minSSE 510.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1019.6 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi23 minSSE 610.00 miFair81°F75°F82%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW7SW6SW4W3W4SE4SE7SE8SE8CalmSE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E3CalmCalmCalmSE7SE8SE9E6E4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE7CalmCalmE9E7SE7E5E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf Island, south end, Georgia
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Wolf Island
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Tue -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:18 AM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:53 PM EDT     6.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM EDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.66.26.15.44.43.32.41.81.82.43.44.65.76.56.86.45.64.63.52.6222.6

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:40 PM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:01 PM EDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.166.46.15.242.921.61.92.73.956.16.86.96.45.44.232.11.82.12.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.