Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:18PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:18 AM EST (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:41PMMoonset 7:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Today..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog late.
Thursday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday and Friday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Sunday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 312 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis.. A trough of low pressure near the southeast georgia coast and a warm front over northeast florida today will move north of the area by tonight. Moderate winds and hazardous seas will remain over area waters today with patchy sea fog possible at times near the coast. Weak high pressure ridge will lift north to central florida tonight through Friday morning. Another backdoor cold front will move into the coastal georgia waters late Friday, lifting back north by Saturday. A stronger cold front will move into the region on Sunday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 18, 2019 at 1200 utc... 69 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 75 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 86 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 99 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, GA
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location: 31.32, -81.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 200547
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1247 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
An unsettled pattern is expected as a series of frontal systems
affect the area through early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1245 am: kclx indicated patches of light rain lifting
north across the cwa. In addition, recent observations indicated
a degree or two of warming across the region. I will update the
forecast to increase sky, adjust temperature trends, and
increase qpf.

Previous discussion:
between an inland wedge and a strengthen coastal trough we'll
experience an intensification of isentropic upglide, leading to
an expanding area of rain and showers. Pwat in the range of at
least 140-170% of normal with strong strong transport from off
the atlantic, deep moisture convergence and aided by some upper
difluence will lead to numerous or widespread coverage of
rainfall over much of the area tonight, except scattered
coverage far inland over southeast georgia. We continue to alter
the coverage of pop's based on recent and anticipated radar
trends, and yet again had to lower temps another 1-3f for both
the hourlies and minimums given evaporative cooling effects.

We considered a wind advisory for the coastal counties, but
conditions of the required 30 mph or greater for sustained winds
and or 40 mph or greater in gusts will cover too small of an
area. Thus no advisory is planned, despite a tight gradient
between the inland wedge and the offshore trough. Northeast
winds will average 10-20 mph and gusty far inland, and 20-25 mph
with gusts around 30 or 35 mph closer to coast.

We stayed close to the wpc guidance regarding QPF the remainder
of the night, equating to 1 10 to 3 10 inches most places,
except for some pockets closer to 1 2 inch over parts of the
coastal corridor.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday
Wednesday: a transitional day toward a much warmer pattern is quite
dependent on the progress of the both the coastal trough and an
advancing warm front over south ga earlier in the day. The day
is expected to start off unsettled with areas of light rains
decreasing in coverage inland from i-95, especially over inland
ga. Wet weather is expected to be ongoing along coastal sc as a
weak surface wave ridges along the coastal trough not far off
the coast. QPF amounts will likely be below 1 4 inch after 12z
along the chs coast but a few models do show some higher amounts
since the position of the coastal trough may nudge onshore in
the charleston area. Widespread low clouds will tend to hang in
much of day across the area with the surface wedge inland
resisting the progression of the front adjacent to the csra and
southeast sc midlands. There should be a large spread of
afternoon temps from the low mid 50s far northeast to near 70
degrees southern ga zones.

Wednesday night: the pattern favors fog development across the area
but the low level gradient atop the boundary layer appears a bit too
tight for dense fog, at least inland. We think widespread stratus
will tend to build-down along coastal zones. For now, we are showing
patchy to areas of fog in the forecast.

Thursday: our region will be in the warm sector with a strong mid
level anticyclone off the southeast coast keeping much of the region
dry. We maintained some low pops in the afternoon with weak moisture
convergence along the sea breeze corridor. Temps should approach
records at both chs and sav with highs from 80 degrees to perhaps a
few mid 80s in far south ga. Areas of fog are expected to develop
once again on Thursday night.

Friday: another warm day over southeast ga but a backdoor cold front
is expected to sag into the carolinas as high pressure builds into
the mid atlantic region from the great lakes. Models handle the
progression of this front in a similar fashion and while scattered
rains are possible, we maintained pops in chance ranges. After
morning fog dissolves, highs will range from the lower 80s south of
i-16 to the upper 60s north of charleston. Northern zones may end up
cooler if the front ends up a little faster.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
An inland wedge on Friday night with give way to a warm front on
Saturday. The warm front will lift north of the area Saturday night,
then a cold front will sweep through late Sunday. Cool high pressure
will build in Sunday night through Monday, then shift northeast as
gulf low pressure moves into the area on Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
The pressure gradient between inland high pressure and a trough
over the near shore waters will support gusty NE winds through
early Wednesday morning. The coastal trough will drift slowly
onshore during the daylight hours, becoming a warm front. Low
level lift ahead of the coastal trough warm front will support
MVFR ceilings and periods of light rain. The warm front is
forecast to slide west of the terminals by this evening. Flow
will shift from the south and sea fog is expected to develop
across the shelf waters, then advect onshore impacting the
terminals as ifr ceilings and possibly ifr visibility.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions, mainly due to low
ceilings, are likely Wednesday night through Thursday morning
along with a small possibility of low level wind shear. Another
round of restrictions is expected Friday night with potential
for low CIGS and fog. Additional restrictions are also possible
later Friday into Saturday as a front drops into the area.

Marine
A ship report of 40 knots about 20 nm off the daufuskie and
tybee island coast, and wind gusts of 37 kt at 02z at kssi,
prompted the expansion of the gale warning for the amz354
waters. The other gales for amz350 and 352 remain active, with
strong small craft advisories for amz330 and amz374.

Previous discussion...

tonight: the combination of high pressure over the northeastern
u.S. And a trough developing off our coast will cause the
pressure gradient to steepen further this evening. Models are
in good agreement showing northeast winds 20-25 kt in the
evening. With gusts to 35 kt across the sc waters, we upgraded
the advisory to a gale warning through most of tonight. The ga
waters remain under a small craft advisory as winds there are
currently around 30 kt. But this will need to be monitored
for possible inclusion within the gale warning. Regardless of
how strong the winds get, models indicate they should start
easing late tonight and around daybreak Wednesday, as the
gradient lowers. Very steep, wind driven seas are expected. Seas
should peak around 8-10 ft roughly 10-20 nm out and 10-12 ft
across the outer ga waters.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: marine conditions will tend to
slowly improve as a warm front breaks down the inland wedge
and advances northward. We maintained scas through the day
Wednesday as seas remain elevated, despite a decreasing trend
in wind speeds.

Winds will veer south to southwest Wednesday night and Thursday
with conditions below SCA criteria. Another backdoor cold front
is forecast to drop into the waters on Friday with increasing
northeast flow and surging especially north of the savannah
river. The wedge will be short-lived as a warm front progresses
north on Saturday with another cold front from the west expected
late Sunday.

We maintained patchy areas fog over the nearshore waters late
Wednesday night into Friday due to the likely development of sea fog
during this period. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will be
moving over cool shelf water in the upper 50s.

Tides coastal flooding
The Wednesday morning high tide is likely to be the highest of
the week given the persistently strong northeast winds leading
up to it. Major coastal flooding is possible along the southeast
south carolina and southeast georgia coast, so a coastal flood
watch has been issued.

The Wednesday evening astronomical high tide is the lower of the two
for the day. Wind directions will have shifted to southerly by then,
but residual anomalies could allow tides to approach advisory
criteria at least at charleston.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Coastal flood watch from 7 am to 10 am est this morning for
gaz117-119-139-141.

Sc... Coastal flood watch from 7 am to 10 am est this morning for
scz048>051.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 am est early this morning for amz352-354.

Gale warning until 7 am est this morning for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for amz374.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for amz330.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term... Jrl
aviation... Ned
marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 8 mi79 min NE 17 54°F 1023 hPa (-2.0)53°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 27 mi29 min NNW 1.9 G 7.8 62°F 58°F8 ft1021.3 hPa (-1.9)61°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 42 mi19 min 59°F6 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 45 mi31 min N 8 G 11 60°F 61°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA7 mi24 minNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1022.3 hPa
Brunswick, Malcolm McKinnon Airport, GA12 mi26 minNNE 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW7SW5S4SW5SW7SW9SW12N11
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N8NW6NW7NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmW4NW5N3NE7NE6NE5
2 days agoSW7W7CalmE5E4CalmE5E6SE6NE3E5SE6SE8SE7SE4SE4S5CalmS7S4S3S5S7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf Island, south end, Georgia
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Wolf Island
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Wed -- 03:11 AM EST     -2.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:53 AM EST     8.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:40 PM EST     -1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     7.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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30.8-1.1-2-1.40.63.46.17.88.37.86.44.42.20.1-1.3-1.5-0.32.14.66.67.77.56.5

Tide / Current Tables for Old Tower, Sapelo Island, Georgia
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Old Tower
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:38 AM EST     -1.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:55 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:40 AM EST     8.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:08 PM EST     -1.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     7.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.30-1.5-1.7-0.41.94.778.38.57.763.81.4-0.6-1.5-10.83.35.67.387.66.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.