Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Level, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:07PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 11:59 AM CDT (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 1054 Am Cdt Tue Oct 23 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Rain.
Tonight..Northeast winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Rain likely in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1054 Am Cdt Tue Oct 23 2018
Synopsis..A moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will prevail over the marine area for the next several days. An approaching low pressure system over the gulf will bring increasing winds and showers and Thunderstorms late in the week, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Level, AL
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location: 31.33, -86.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 231452 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
952 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas below.

Update Have updated the current package to expend north the
higher rain chances currently over the marine portion of the
forecast area due to radar and tipping buckets showing general
rain coverage to the al fl state line. Lightning strikes have been
well south of the marine portion of the forecast area, so have
left any mention of thunder out with the update. Have also bumped
temperatures down a bit into the upper 60s. With current low 60s
across the forecast area and with the rain thick cloud
cover northerly winds, am not expecting much incoming heating from
the Sun nor warm advection. With the shortwave energy causing the
current activity taking a more southerly track this afternoon,
have bumped the higher pops back south a bit from this morning,
but still nudged upwards the pops over our coastal counties.

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Prev discussion issued 620 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Generally light northeast winds and cloudy skies
are expected throughout the day today. Light rain showers continue
generally south of a hattiesburg, ms to andalusia, al line.

Conditions should remain atVFR for most, though occasional
periods of moderate rain could temporarily lower CIGS vis to
MVFR levels right along the coast. Rain moves well offshore and
away from the area late this evening, withVFR conditions and
light north winds prevailing tonight. 49
prev discussion... Issued 445 am cdt Tue oct 23 2018
near term now through Tuesday night ... High pressure over the
southern gulf and low pressure over eastern canada maintain a
zonal flow pattern across much of the eastern CONUS through the
near term. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends east
over the central gulf from a weak surface low near the texas
coast. A shallow northeast flow prevails to the north of this
boundary, with winds quickly veering to southerly in the 925-850
mb layer. This is resulting in a weak upglide scenario in which
shallow ascent of mid- tropospheric flow occurs over a cooler
"dome" of air north of the surface boundary. This pattern will
maintain our cloudy skies and scattered light rain showers south
of highway 84 today. Periods of moderate rainfall could occur
along the immediate coast as a weak shortwave moves east across
the nearshore marine area and locally enhances lift, possibly
tapping into some weak elevated instability suggested in high-res
model soundings. Along and north of highway 84, a substantially
drier 850-500 mb layer will keep rain chances near zero as
evaporation becomes an issue and a stronger 850 mb temperature
inversion develops. Rain chances then taper off across the entire
area tonight as a large surface anticyclone settles into the
eastern CONUS and reinforces our dry northerly flow. Temperatures
today only reach the low 70s as cloud cover inhibits daytime
heating and our light northeast winds prevent WAA from the gulf.

Lows tonight range from upper 40s to around 50 well inland and mid
to upper 50s closer to the coast. 49
short term Wednesday through Thursday night ... A medium
amplified upper level ridge extending from a high pressure area
over the southern gulf of mexico northward to south central canada
will move eastward and become suppressed before reaching the east
coast. An upper level trough west of the ridge over the rocky
mountains will follow the ridge, with the axis reaching the length
of the mississippi river by late Thursday night. Meanwhile, the
surface low pressure area across the northwest gulf of mexico is
forecast to slowly move east-northeast, with the center most
likely brushing the coastlines of alabama and the western florida
panhandle Thursday night. Deep layer moisture will increase in
ahead of the upper trough Wednesday into Thursday, reaching peak
values between 1.7 to 2.2 inches Thursday morning. Cloud cover and
rain chances will increase from the southwest, mainly Wednesday
night and Thursday with the approaching surface low, with numerous
showers expected west of the tombigbee river by late Wednesday
night, with scattered coverage to the east. Definite rain chances
(90 percent) are forecast for Thursday, with widespread rainfall
amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches, and locally higher amounts to
2 to 4 inches where training occurs. Scattered to likley rain
chances will remain Thursday night, but slowly diminish from west
to east as the low exits the area. 22
long term Friday through Monday ... The upper level trough will
dig further south through the reaminder of the week as it moves
slowly eastward, with drier air filtering into the area from the
west. While the main shortwave energy is expected to move out over
the western atlantic early next week, a massive upper level trough
will be carved out over the eastern CONUS by Monday morning.

Meanwhile, the surface low will lift northeast along the eastern
seaboard, followed by surface high pressure building into the
region from the west. All rain will taper off from west to east
throughout the day Friday, with isolated light rain or sprinkles
to follow Saturday and Saturday night as the large trough covers
the eastern conus. Dry conditions are then forecast through early
next week. 22
marine... Moderate to at times strong east to northeast flow
continues into Thursday as surface high pressure builds north of
the marine area. A surface low develops over the northwester
gulf and moves east into our marine area late this week. Strong
flow is expected with this passing system and wind direction will
depend heavily on the track, though a general east to southeast
flow is expected out ahead of it. A moderate to strong northwest
flow then sets up Friday into the weekend as the low moves off to
our east. 49

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 69 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 70°F 74°F1021.3 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 79 mi60 min N 1.9 65°F 1022.4 hPa (+1.4)
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 82 mi48 min 66°F 77°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Andalusia, Andalusia-Opp Municipal Airport, AL17 mi2.1 hrsENE 410.00 miFair67°F57°F73%1022 hPa
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL18 mi67 minENE 310.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from 79J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7--E5E4E6CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3E3E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E4E4
1 day agoN10N9
G15
N6N6N9N6N3N4NE4NE3NE5NE4NE5NE4E4E3E4E4E4E4E7E8E8NE8
2 days agoSW7W9W9NW16
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NW12NW7NW6NW13NW7NW10N8N8N9NW7N6NW3NW4NW3N5N5N6NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Milton, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Milton
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:08 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:56 AM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:57 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.21.110.90.90.80.80.80.90.91111.11.11.11.11.11.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:36 AM CDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.21.21.110.90.80.80.80.80.90.9111.11.11.11.11.11.21.21.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Fort Rucker, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.