Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Douglas, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:10PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 8:08 AM MST (15:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:39PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Douglas, AZ
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location: 31.4, -109.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 201151
afdtwc
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
451 am mst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis Cold this morning with a brief spell of dry weather.

Then, a major winter storm produces valley rain and substantial
mountain snow Thursday and Friday. Dry conditions return by the
weekend. Well below normal daytime temperatures continue through
Saturday then gradually warmer to near normal next by next Tuesday.

Discussion Cold morning area wide with temperatures at 4 am
ranging from the single digits to low teens in the mountains, mid
teens to lower 20s coldest eastern southern valleys and mid 20s to
lower 30s elsewhere. A few spot will be close to daily record lows
before sunrise. Highs today will remain on the very cool side,
running 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

Our attention continues to focused on major winter storm that will
bring periods of moderate to heavy rain at the lower elevations
and a substantial amount of snow to the mountains of southeast
arizona where 3 to 4 feet of snow is possible above 7000 feet.

The storm bringing all of this rain and snow was over washington,
oregon and northern california this morning. A 125-150 knot upper
level jet on back side of this system will drive it south today.

Clouds increasing this evening area wide with scattered showers
developing west of tucson after midnight. Showers and mountain
snow will then increase in areal coverage on Thursday. Snow
intensity will also be on the increase and start a bit earlier
than previously forecast. With that in mind and in coordination
with neighboring office, we upgraded the winter storm watch to
warning above 5000 and started it six hours earlier for most of
the mountain chains. The chiricahua mountains will be the last of
the ranges to see snow, thus the warning doesn't start until
Thursday night which also includes the oracle area. More on snow
below 5000 feet further down in this discussion.

Snow intensities in the mountains will be the greatest late
Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning as this will be the
time for the best dynamics aloft and strong upslope flow, thanks
to 40-50 kts winds, will be the greatest. Snowfall rates above
6000 feet could be as high as 2" per hour for about a 10-12 hour
period, like between 8 pm Thursday to 8 am Friday. With that in
mind snowfall accumulations were increased, especially across the
catalina, rincon and santa rita mountains where two to three feet
are likely with localized spot potentially seeing up to four
feet. Incredible. The gusty winds will produce blizzard conditions
for the mountains for this event. See climate section below on
historical snow storms for mount lemmon.

Can't forget the lower elevations where widespread rain will be
occurring Thursday and Friday. The best time frame for moderate to
heavy rain will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. Total qpf
for this storm for the lower elevations will range 0.70" to 1.50"
with localized flooding issues a possibility.

As the core of the upper level trof pushes across the state on
Friday, the snow levels will be crashing down to 3000 to 4000 feet
and then 2000 to 3000 feet Friday night into early Saturday
morning. These elevations could see some accumulating snow mainly
in the trace to 3" range which includes the tucson metro area.

Cold overnight lows Saturday morning with most of the area below
freezing. A hard freeze possible again for the tucson area west.

Conditions improve on Saturday as the system moves east of the
area. Highs Friday quite chilly with most of the lower elevations
not getting out of the 40s.

Dry Sunday into Tuesday with a gradual warming trend.

Aviation Valid through 21 12z.

Expect skc conditions at ktus and few cirrus at 25k ft agl along the
international border through this afternoon then sct clouds AOA 15k
ft agl area wide thereafter. Winds through the morning less than 10
kts becoming southwesterly at 8-12 kts this afternoon. Late this
evening through the end of the TAF period winds begin to pick up out
of the south southwest at 10-15 kts with gusts to 22 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather After a short dry spell through Wednesday, a
significant winter storm arrives Thursday morning into Saturday
morning with valley rain and heavy mountain snowfall. 20-ft winds
become breezy at times, especially Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night as southwesterly winds reach 15-25 mph. After Saturday expect
dry conditions into the beginning of next week with normal diurnal
winds.

Climate Below are historical 2 and 3-day snowfall totals for
mount lemmon since 1950. Only 3'+ totals are listed for 2 day events
and 4'+ totals for 3 day events.

2 days
49 inches in 1997 (feb 28 to mar 1)
46 inches in 1998 (feb 8-9)
37 inches in 1991 (mar 1-2)
36 inches in 1998 (mar 29-30)
36 inches in 1997 (jan 13-14)
3 days
56 inches in 1997 (feb 27 to mar 1)
50 inches in 1998 (feb 8-10)

Twc watches warnings advisories
Hard freeze warning until 8 am mst this morning for azz502-
504>506.

Freeze warning until 8 am mst this morning for azz501.

Winter storm warning from 5 am Thursday to 5 pm mst Friday for
azz510-511-513>515.

Winter storm warning from 11 pm Thursday to 5 pm mst Friday for
azz506-512.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bisbee Douglas International Airport, AZ5 mi73 minS 410.00 miFair11°F7°F84%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from DUG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW8NW14
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NW11W7N7N6SE5N4SE3E3NE4NE5CalmSE5CalmS4Calm
1 day agoS5S7S13
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2 days agoSE33W6W17
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W12SW8SW7SE5SW10SW9CalmE5E3SE3E5E7E7E4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.