Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 7:09 PM Moonrise 1:09 PM   Moonset 1:45 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 162016 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 116 PM MST Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Locally breezy this afternoon, with a few showers and thunderstorms from central Pima County eastward. Dry conditions return areawide Friday into next week. High temperatures will warm to several degrees above normal Friday into early next week.

DISCUSSION
Partly to locally mostly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon as a circulation on the backside of a broader mid/upper low is moving through the forecast area from northwest to southeast. This has already produced an area of showers (though much of this in reality is virga) from Tucson and points north and westward. Not much lightning in our forecast area but we've seen some gusty winds up to around 40 mph with brief reductions of visibility to around 3 miles due to dust in Pinal County. Given the lift from this disturbance moving through and adequate moisture (PWAT values 0.6 to 0.7 inches), there is enough moisture for a continuation of these light showers (mostly virga) and dry thunderstorms. The best chance of wetting rains remains in the White Mountains. We'll see a continuation of this activity into the early evening hours before this system pushes to the east and shower activity starts to wane with the loss of daytime heating.

A return to dry conditions for our forecast area on Friday as shortwave ridging builds in. As heights increase into the weekend that will allow temperatures to warm to above normal levels with the warmest day being Saturday. Highs on Saturday will approach the century mark for the first time of the year in Tucson, though the latest NBM probabilities are around 15 percent for 100 degrees or hotter Saturday. Thereafter, a couple of degrees of cooling starting Sunday and continuing into early next week with highs near to slightly above normal.

Expect typical afternoon breezes each day through the forecast period with elevated winds most likely on Monday as a dry weather system passes to our north.

AVIATION
Valid through 18/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL thru 17/12Z, then diminishing thereafter. Sct -SHRA/-TSRA mainly from KTUS eastward thru 17/03Z.
SFC winds thru 17/03Z will be WLY/NWLY at 12-20 kts and gusts to 22- 30 kts, with the strongest SFC wind east of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK, KDUG and KSAD. Locally gusty outflow winds in excess of 30 mph also possible during this period but confidence in location/timing is low. SFC winds aft 17/03Z diminish to 12 kts or less thru 17/16Z, then become WLY/NWLY 8-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts thru the end of the period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
After some mainly dry thunderstorms today, dry weather returns Friday. While some wetting rainfall may occur in the White Mountains this afternoon, the majority of the thunderstorms will be dry, with gusty/erratic winds and lightning, but little to no measurable rainfall. Highs warm to 3-5 degrees above normal Friday and 6-9 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday, before lowering back to within a couple of degrees of normal next Tuesday. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 10- 20 percent range this afternoon and then in the single digits to lower teens Saturday into the middle of next week, with values in the mountains between 20-35 percent this afternoon and 10-20 percent Saturday through the middle of next week. 20-foot winds will generally follow typical diurnal wind trends through early next week, with afternoon and early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds will be this afternoon and next Monday, especially to the east of Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. West-northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with southwest-west winds on Monday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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