Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Richton, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:50PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:12 PM CST (21:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:31PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 1245 Pm Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until midnight cst tonight...
Rest of today..South winds 13 to 18 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Patchy dense fog. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest. Waves around 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1245 Pm Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis..A moderate onshore flow continues over the marine area through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Frontal passage late tonight and early Sunday leads to a moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow Sunday through late Monday. Fog lingers near shore, including bays and sounds through this evening. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the cold front with the best coverage occurring this evening and overnight.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Richton, MS
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location: 31.5, -89     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 231921 aaa
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
121 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019

Severe weather expected today across arklamiss...

Update
Updated for early afternoon update

Discussion
Rest of today:
as previously noted, severe weather looks on track today. A
tornado watch has been issued across the area through 8pm for most
of the area, excluding mainly the pine belt. With juxtaposition
of strong mid-deep layer shear & efficient vertical effective
helicity, expect widespread isolated thunderstorms, including
some supercell thunderstorms with strong rotating updrafts &
eventually transitioning to a linear line of convection in the
wake. Very strong deep layer shear & fast mid level storm relative
wind will make for fast storm motions. Right now the only
potential limitation hindrance for efficient vertical rotating
updrafts is some mid-layer weak capping subsidence & veer-back-
veer (~600-500mb) in regional 15z & 18z surface soundings &
guidance. Local cams continue to indicate strong updraft
helicities, with some local SREF tornado ingredients bullseye
slightly shifting to the south. This would put some of the best
stp gradient still along & north of the i-20 corridor, still in
line with previous thinking. Some href probs have slightly shifted
south as well, potentially towards some local theta-e convergence
into NE louisiana & SW mississippi, leading to some slightly
further SW & initiation & development. Timing looks to be mostly
on track, with any earlier convection more isolated before the
main line & front moving in later into the afternoon. Only small
changes that may be needed in the forecast would be boost highs,
due to better mixing & winds. Wind advisory remains in effect due
to gusty winds & some potential residual flash flooding in the
north, due to very wet antecedent conditions & previous flash
flooding. Updates are out. Dc
prior discussion below:
the forecast is on track for significant severe weather across the
forecast area later today. While a weak mid level cap was evident
in morning soundings across the region, this should be overcome
by early afternoon with the expected heating in advance of the
convective line. Strong shear in place as well as 0-1km bulk
shear 30-40 knots and 0-3km bulk shear of 40-50 knots leading to
50+ mph thunderstorm movements and rotating updrafts. With the
strong low level shear and expected heating, deep mixing will
result in 30-40 knots of wind at the surface, especially in the
open lands of the arklamiss delta and over large lakes. 26
prior discussion below:
a significant severe weather episode is expected to unfold across
the region today as a strong storm system moves through. A potent
negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated jet energy will
lift northeast from the southern plains into the midwest today into
tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is underway across the texas panhandle
with a deepening low progged to lift through kansas and into north
central missouri. A robust warm sector continues to surge north this
morning with surface based instability and upper 60s dewpoints
already encroaching on the hwy 82 corridor. Widespread elevated
shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually shifted north during
the early morning hours and is now focused across far northern
mississippi and into tennessee. Scattered warm air advection showers
were also noted within the open warm sector and will continue
through the morning into the afternoon.

The main focus will quickly shift to organized and significant
severe weather from roughly noon to 8pm. Latest suite of hi-res cam
guidance is in fairly good agreement that upstream convection will
develop by mid morning across central louisiana and will push
through the CWA through the day into the early evening hours. This
convection will reside within a prefrontal surface trough ahead of a
pseudo dryline as the actual cold front will lag further northwest.

Low-level mass response to the deepening surface cyclone will help
increase low-level wind fields that will foster elongated
cyclonically curved hodographs. 50-55kts of deep layer shear
oriented off the initiating boundary will be more than sufficient
for discrete supercell development as mid-level height falls
overspread the area. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support
1000-1500 j kg of mlcape, with greater instability possible if gaps
in cloud cover can be realized. The most favorable parameter space
will reside across the hwy 82 corridor where a moderate risk area
has been introduced after collaboration with SPC and neighboring
offices. It is across this area where tornadoes, some of which could
be strong and long track, will be most likely. The enhanced risk
area was also expanded south to include all of the i-20 corridor
where discrete supercells will also be possible. Tornadoes, a few of
which could be strong, will also be possible across this area.

Further south, tornadoes will also be possible, however confidence
in both coverage and severity of storms begins to decrease further
south of the better parameter space and height falls. The lowest
confidence remains across the far southeastern portion of the cwa
where guidance has been less impressive with convective potential.

Will continue to advertise this lower threat with a marginal risk.

Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 c km will support large hail up
to golf ball size, especially with any discrete supercells that are
able to maintain intense updrafts. There are indications that a
broken qlcs could develop behind the initial discrete supercells. If
this scenario pans out damaging winds of 60-70mph will also be
possible.

Finally, flash flooding will remain a concern, especially across the
northern portion of the area that has seen numerous rounds of heavy
rainfall and significant flooding over the last few days. The good
news, though, is that by later this morning into the afternoon the
pattern will become much more progressive with one final round of
fast moving storms before conditions finally clear out. However,
anomalous moisture will remain in place and heavy rainfall rates
from any convection would easily exacerbate ongoing flooding. As
such, will continue the flash flood watch through the rest of the
day. Reduced the hwo graphics threat from extreme to elevated with
only 1-2" of additional rainfall as the greatest threat for higher
end flooding has shifted into far northern mississippi.

Last but not least, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s across much of the area and will promote strong mixing
upwards of 900mb. This depth of mixing will help bring down strong
wind gusts of 40-49mph to the surface, especially across the delta.

Will continue to advertise the ongoing wind advisory and
elevated limited gradient wind threat in the hwo graphics.

The actually cold front will drop into the area after midnight with
overnight low temperatures tonight dropping into the low 50s to mid
40s. Tw
Sunday through the next work week:
considering the variety of messy weather conditions that have been
persistent in the region for quite some time, the weather will be
trending very nice by Sunday as high pressure dominates in the
wake of the cold front coming through Saturday night. Look for
mostly clear (to, at worst, partly cloudy) conditions from Sunday
through late Monday with temperatures near seasonal norms. There
is potential for some frost Sunday night, but at this point the
prospect of more than very isolated locations getting down to the
freezing mark is low.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday night as a low amplitude
disturbance in fast zonal flow aloft interacts with a baroclinic
zone near (or south) of the coast. Some light rain showers getting
up to the highway 84 corridor are not out of the question late in
the night.

Thereafter, model consensus through the rest of the work week is
not terribly good. Main issue is that multiple low-amplitude short
waves are expected to progress through the lower mississippi
valley, occasionally interacting with a loose baroclinic zone
remaining mostly near the coast. The european model has been
most consistent with keeping most areas mainly dry through this
period. However, the GFS and GEFS have been showing more
amplification with a few of these pieces of energy and, thus,
greater chances for precipitation. Negotiated this uncertainty
by generally expressing slight chances of rain Tuesday through
Friday in the official forecast each day, with a little better
overall chance of measurable precipitation in southern zones.

Definitely expecting some refinement of the forecast for these
periods coming in the next day or two as models work out some of
the differences in the rather unsettled pattern aloft. But, all in
all, the forecast is not looking too bad considering the threat
for hazardous weather in the long term is quite low. Temperatures
should likely trend not too far from average with seasonably
chilly air having a hard time working south into the region. In
fact, at times where more Sun than clouds dominate then
temperatures on some days could end up being pleasantly mild. Bb

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
MVFR ceilings will continue through much of the afternoon,
althoughVFR ceilings may periodically occur. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will occur across the area this afternoon. A squall
line of thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front, will sweep across
the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening with
the cold front lagging shortly behind. Winds ahead of the front
will be strong from the south with sustained around 20 knots and
gusts from 30 to 40 knots. Winds will switch to the west and
northwest behind the front later tonight at 10 to 20 knots with
gusts from 20 to 30 knots. 26

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 47 60 36 63 65 2 2 2
meridian 50 63 36 63 84 4 2 1
vicksburg 45 59 37 62 15 2 2 1
hattiesburg 53 66 38 65 53 3 1 2
natchez 46 60 38 63 23 2 2 3
greenville 43 56 35 58 4 2 1 1
greenwood 44 57 34 60 37 2 1 1

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... Flash flood watch until midnight cst tonight for msz018-019-
025>042.

Wind advisory until midnight cst tonight for msz018-019-025>028-
034>037-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

La... Flash flood watch until midnight cst tonight for laz007>009-015.

Wind advisory until midnight cst tonight for laz008-009-015-016-
023>026.

Ar... Flash flood watch until midnight cst tonight for arz074-075.

Wind advisory until midnight cst tonight for arz075.

Dc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 75 mi43 min 70°F 58°F1015.1 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 77 mi43 min S 8.9 G 15 71°F 64°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS18 mi77 minS 14 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F70°F74%1012.3 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS21 mi80 minS 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F68°F67%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SE9SE10SE9SE8SE6SE6S10S12S9S9S7S8S7
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1 day agoN4N3NE4NE4N3NE3N4CalmCalmN4N3N5N3NE5NE3NE3NE3NE3NE5Calm--CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6CalmCalmNW3NW5N4N6N5N5NE4N5NW4N3--N5N7N6NE5NE6NE4NE5NE6NE5N6

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:24 AM CST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 AM CST     0.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:07 PM CST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:42 PM CST     0.80 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.40.50.50.50.50.40.40.30.30.30.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.80.70.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:34 AM CST     0.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:53 AM CST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:20 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:10 PM CST     0.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:25 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.