Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 1010 Am Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south late. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tonight - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.

GMZ600 1010 Am Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.

FXUS64 KJAN 201635 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1135 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 847 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Rest of today...

Warm & dry day is expected across the Gulf Coast region. Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate mean ridging at the sfc & aloft building across the Gulf Coast states through the Appalachians into the . Any limited patchy ground fog has dissipated, with satellite imagery indicating sunny skies & any cloud cover being limited today. Mean RH's aloft have dried, with 20-30% range RH's in the 850-300mb & 700-300mb layer, which is evident in drying in 12Z observed soundings across the region. Subtle low-level WAA at 925mb has occurred as local radar VAD wind profiles indicate return flow has begun to on the western periphery of the sfc high in the Appalachians. Expect another seasonably warm aftn with highs some 3-5 degrees above normal in the 88-92 deg F range, while conceivable a site could briefly peak in mid 90s. Updates will be out shortly. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Today and Tonight: Quiet start to the morning as a surface ridge continues to influence our weather. Patchy fog development will be possible near the Pine Belt and northeastern portions of the area during the early morning hours and dissipate after sunrise. The ridge is expected to amplify throughout the day, bringing seasonably very warm temperatures (upper 80s/lower 90s), sunny skies, and dry conditions to the region. Quiet conditions remain into the evening with low temperatures expected to be in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Due to clear skies and light winds, patchy fog will be possible once again in the Pine Belt early Tuesday morning. /SW/

Tuesday through Sunday: The long term forecast continues to be be best described as hotter than normal with increasing chances for storms. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most influence on our weather, and with H850 temperatures approaching 20 deg C in the global models, a few locations should reach the mid 90s at some point. While the boundary layer RH is not expected to be particularly impressive through the work week, it does appear that humidity will increase by the weekend, and we will need to monitor for impactful heat stress during that time.

As we go into mid/late week, active westerlies over the Plains/MS Valley will likely suppress the ridge some and allow a cold front to approach our area. This will increase thunderstorm chances Wednesday night for northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, where increased increased moisture convergence and mid level flow could help to organize potential storms. As of now, there is a marginal risk for a few severe storms in the upper ArkLaMiss region, but it is likely that the anticyclone will delay storm impacts for most of the area until at least a day or two later, so will continue to hold off on messaging severe weather in the graphics until confidence increases. Going into Thursday and Friday, the frontal boundary will linger and promote additional chances for storms over mainly northern potions of the area. Otherwise, expect the heat and humidity to potentially build more as described earlier. /EC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Light southerly winds and VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. /HUN/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 89 65 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 91 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 89 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0



JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Mon -- 03:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Mon -- 03:58 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM CDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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Mobile, AL,