Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seminary, MS

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:05PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 11:42 AM CDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 1059 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1059 Am Cdt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis..Persistent onshore flow is expected through the period as surface high pressure stays in place over the bahamas and eastern gulf and drifts slowly westward through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seminary, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 191526 aaa
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
1026 am cdt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Updated for morning discussion.

Discussion
Local radars showed a band of thunderstorms just west of the
mississippi river that are associated with a decaying MCS that has
pushed east this morning. Models are not handling the boundary
well but, this boundary will remain a focus for additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon as it drifts further into
mississippi. Some of the storms may become severe with damaging
wind gusts and hail. The hwo has been updated to reflect a greater
area to the south under a "slight" and "marginal" for this
afternoon and tonight. Have increased pops in the west and lowered
afternoon highs several degrees to account for the early
thunderstorm development. 22
prior discussion below:
today and tonight: impressive mid level shortwave moving through
southern ks at the moment responsible for MCS moving across ok north
tx. Cam guidance is mixed on evolution of this convective system as
it moves across ar and eventually toward our area later this
afternoon. At present the system looks to decay before moving into
the forecast area, but its outflow will be moving into a moist
unstable airmass over the arklamiss delta region this afternoon.

This should ignite scattered convection in these areas, but of
greater concern will be the next convective cluster that develops
over the ARKLATEX region during the late afternoon and eventually
moves into the forecast area later in the evening. By this time,
stronger shear and better lapse rates will have moved into the
region with the mid level feature. Shear and instability look to be
as such for rather robust convection mainly over the northern half
of our area overnight and into early Thursday morning, with
damaging wind and large hail as the primary threats. Gg
Thursday through Tuesday: the consensus of model guidance has
backed off some on precip lingering into Thursday, but given the
overnight activity, a marginal threat for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms may continue into the morning hours. The
ecmwf is more aggressive with spreading convection southward
toward the gulf coast through the day on Thursday, however mid-
level capping may be too much to overcome farther south as deep
layer shear eases and a shortwave ridge begins to move overhead.

Showers and thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out for Friday,
especially if returning southerly flow can help any seabreeze
convection to spread northward. Then it looks like the next best
chance for more than a few isolated showers or storms will be next
Monday into Tuesday time frame as a low pressure system moving
eastward across the country brings some height falls and increases
convection at least to our north and west. For now it appears the
associated frontal boundary will stall out before dipping into
our forecast area, but we will continue to monitor the trends for
this early week setup.

Now for the other summertime impact that will be felt this week -
heat. With the convection looking to be a little less expansive on
Thursday, the cap should allow for dangerous heat conditions to
build into southwestern portions of our forecast area this Thursday
afternoon. With dewpoints expected to remain in the low to mid 70s
throughout the day and temps climbing into the low 90s, calculated
heat index values in the 103 to 105 degree range look to be most
likely from around hattiesburg, ms extending north and west toward
bastrop, la. A limited heat threat has been included for areas south
of this line on Thursday. The heat will continue to build into
Friday as mid-level ridging increases and onshore flow keeps
dewpoints high. The limited heat threat area has been expanded on
Friday to include all of northeast louisiana, far southeast
arkansas, and areas in mississippi southwest of a line from
greenville to jackson to hattiesburg. Peak heat index values of
around 105 are expected to be more common, especially if convection
looks to be limited for the day. A heat advisory may be needed for
parts of the area on Friday if this setup looks to hold true. Better
mixing on Saturday may allow for the heat to be lessened somewhat,
so will hold off on advertising a heat threat over the weekend for
now. Be sure to stay cool and hydrated as we end the week, and check
on neighbors and the sick and elderly. Nf

Aviation
12z TAF discussion: ifr ceilings between mei, hbg and pib will
rapidly dissipate prior to 19 15z withVFR conditions prevailing
across the region through the end of the period. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop after 19 21z and increase in coverage
during the evening. Where storms occur, lowerings of ceiling and
visibility can be expected. Gg

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 90 73 91 74 39 31 34 16
meridian 91 73 92 74 36 25 35 24
vicksburg 89 74 91 76 41 34 29 14
hattiesburg 92 73 93 75 32 11 23 15
natchez 89 74 92 75 52 21 17 14
greenville 90 73 90 76 63 57 39 20
greenwood 90 72 89 76 58 59 50 24

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Nf 22 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 82 mi60 min SW 7 G 9.9 85°F 83°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS12 mi46 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F75°F70%1012.8 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS23 mi49 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F72°F61%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7SW5533S33CalmS3S4SE4CalmS4CalmS3S3SW3CalmSW43SW65Calm
1 day agoSE9SE8S4S634CalmNE4N3CalmCalmSE3SE4S3CalmS3SW3S3S103S4S5S8S7
2 days ago3S4333S4S3S9SE9SE7CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmE4SE5SE3SE3SE3S7S8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:20 PM CDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.1-00.20.40.60.91.11.21.41.61.92.12.22.221.81.51.20.90.60.30.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:08 PM CDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:41 PM CDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.70.91.11.21.41.61.822.121.91.61.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.