Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seminary, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:15PM Monday March 27, 2017 5:33 PM CDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 7:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 339 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 339 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf through Wednesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seminary, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 272120
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
420 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Discussion
Rest of today through Tuesday:
numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the CWA with a
few storms reaching severe criteria. Latest water vapor imagery
shows a mid/upper level shortwave over SW missouri with the trough
axis extending down the ms river valley. Current SPC mesoanalysis
has anywhere from 1000-2000 j/kg of MLCAPE across the region with
moderate to steep 6.5-7 c mid level lapse rates in conjunction with
30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. This will help to maintain a
severe thunderstorm threat across the majority of the area with the
main threats being large hail (some of which could exceed golf
ball size in the strongest storms) and damaging winds. Shear
remains weak, especially in the low levels, and LCL heights are
relatively high so any tornado threat will remain isolated to the
strongest storms at best. The best potential for severe weather
will be along and north of the i-20 corridor through the early
evening hours, however severe storms are possible across the
entire area. Storms will tend to weaken into the evening as
instability wanes and the best forcing for ascent continues to
pull out to the north and east. Scattered shower and isolated
storm potential will remain during the evening in the NW where the
lingering frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary.

Otherwise, fog potential will return in a moist boundary layer,
especially across the SE and in the fog prone areas. Added mention
in the forecast, but left it out of the hwo for now as confidence
is not high enough at the moment. For Tuesday, a lingering
boundary across central ms will keep a warm and moist airmass in
place. Daytime heating will allow for weak to moderate
destabilization but with weak lapse rates and no source for
forcing any storms that develop will be isolated to scattered at
best. No severe weather is expected with this activity, although a
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. /tw/
Tuesday night through Monday:
the active weather pattern will continue through this work week
and the upcoming weekend as a parade of upper lows dig into the
desert southwest and move east across the country. The next period
to watch for the arklamiss region specifically will be late
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A deepening low pressure
system over the southern high plains on Wednesday will lift toward
missouri by Thursday night. While the finer details of this system
may change, the current thinking is that an MCS will approach
northeast louisiana and southeast arkansas by late Wednesday
night but should be weakening as it enters our area and outruns
the best instability. Warm, moist advection will continue across our
region through the day Thursday with dew points climbing into the
mid 60s and around 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE developing by the
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop under these conditions before a cold front sweeps in with
drier and cooler air Thursday night. At this time, all modes of
severe weather look possible during the day Thursday with an
increasing heavy rain threat before the cold front moves through.

The next system looks to take shape by late in the weekend and
will possibly bring another round of severe thunderstorms through
the region some time Sunday into Monday. Be sure to tune in for
updates throughout the week as the details come into better focus
for these next few rounds of severe weather. /nf/

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
western half of the area late this morning and early this
afternoon. These showers and storms are expected to intensify in
a favorable severe weather environment with large hail possible in
the strongest storms. Storms will move from the west to east
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening.

Vcts, tsra, and vcsh was updated accordingly at all TAF sites.

Some showers could linger longer at glh/gwo along a stalled
frontal boundary this evening. Otherwise, low ceilings and
possible fog development could result in ifr conditions after
9z/28 at most TAF sites, especially in the southeast. /tw/

Preliminary point temps/pops
Jackson 64 83 63 87 / 51 25 9 2
meridian 63 82 61 86 / 39 26 8 3
vicksburg 65 82 63 86 / 35 24 9 5
hattiesburg 63 83 63 86 / 20 22 6 2
natchez 65 83 64 85 / 21 23 9 8
greenville 60 78 62 83 / 43 17 14 3
greenwood 61 79 62 85 / 62 21 13 4

Jan watches/warnings/advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Tw/nf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 79 mi44 min S 7.8 G 14 77°F 1014.4 hPa (-1.7)68°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 82 mi46 min S 17 G 20 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Last
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SE13
G16
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G20
S10
G16
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SE7
G11
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G14
S9
G13
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G12
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G12
SW10
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G14
SW7
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G11
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G15
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SE17
G21
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G24
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G24
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G21
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G23
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G29
NW11
G14
N1
S4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS12 mi2.3 hrsS 9 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F48%1013.9 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS23 mi41 minS 16 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F63°F58%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S10S9
G15
S7S7S8S7S6S7S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S10
G14
S13
G20
S8
G15
S11
G19
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G16
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G20
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G20
1 day agoSE8S7S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5S4S3SE5SE5CalmCalmS4CalmSW3SW4S6S5
G15
S8
2 days ago--SE12
G19
SE13
G19
SE13
G19
SE15
G21
SE14
G19
SE17
G22
S11SE12
G16
SE11
G14
S9S8SE8SE8SE8SE8S9W8
G19
S6SW7SE6S7SE6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Creek, Bernard Bayou, Mississippi
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Turkey Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:10 AM CDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM CDT     0.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.21.110.80.60.50.50.50.60.60.70.70.70.70.70.60.50.50.60.70.70.9

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf River, Henderson Avenue bridge, Mississippi
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Wolf River
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:05 AM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:26 AM CDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:15 PM CDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.11.110.90.70.60.50.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.60.60.50.50.50.50.60.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.