Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seminary, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:58PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 12:49 PM CST (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 921 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..East winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds near 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots rising to 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 921 Am Cst Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters today. A trough axis will move through the northern gulf Wednesday and a strong cold front will move through Thursday morning. Strong high pressure will then build in for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seminary, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 181726
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
1126 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
morning fog has mixed out at all TAF sites withVFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period for locations
outside of the delta and pine belt. Scattered high clouds will
continue to stream across the area today with a much lower ifr
stratus deck entrenched across louisiana. Cloud cover will
increase from the west tonight, however these clouds will be high
based with no flight restrictions expected. The main concern will
be for another round of fog and low stratus across the delta at
glh and pine belt at hbg pib. Confidence is lower compared to the
last few evenings as the aforementioned clouds could disrupt fog
potential. Kept glh at MVFR during the early morning hours for
now, however further adjustments could be needed as forecast
trends become more apparent. Hbg pib is tricky as well with the
potential for high clouds to also interfere with fog formation. At
least some degree of valley river fog is expected but didn't go
any lower than ifr for now owing to the aforementioned
uncertainties. Tw

Discussion
A few areas of dense fog are still holding on this morning,
particularly in northern louisiana and southern arkansas.

Visibilities seem to be slowly rising in those areas, though there
are not a lot of obs sites there to verify. Otherwise, the rest
of the area is seeing fog dissipating. High cirrus clouds are
streaming in overhead from the west right now with more clouds
expected to build in from the southwest later this afternoon. For
this update, highs were adjusted a bit based on where the fog was
still lingering this morning. Overall, highs in the 60s are still
anticipated. 10
prior discussion below:
today through tonight:
areas of dense fog prevails across the area once again this
morning, and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10am. Strong
surface high pressure ridging continues to prevail over the
region, but will begin to lose its grip tonight as an upper trough
deepens over the plains. Clouds will be on the increase overnight
out ahead of this system that will slowly move across the area
through Friday. Temperatures will climb into the 60s once again
this afternoon, with overnight lows in the low mid 40s tonight.

15
Wednesday through next Monday:
a strong upper trough pushing into the lower ms valley region
will bring unsettled weather and a couple of rounds of
significant rainfall to the arklamiss from Wednesday through early
Friday. Initial height falls will incite strong moisture
transport Wednesday with weak elevated convective instability
supporting numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms given
up to a few hundred joules kg of most unstable cape. The warm
advection rainfall should peak late in the afternoon to evening
hours Wednesday, and then diminish coverage overnight into
Thursday, especially for locations along south of the i-20
corridor.

Thereafter, intense pacific jet energy will dig through the base
of the trough helping to increase height falls and cyclonic
vorticity advection. As this happens expect fairly widespread
rainfall to redevelop over most of the forecast area late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. The trough will be progressive and
nwp guidance has sped up passing of the system with only light
rain expected to linger early Friday, and storm total rainfall
should be up to an inch on average. As of now we don't expect
heavy rain to be a significant concern with this system given
relatively poor levels of boundary layer moisture and instability.

In addition to rainfall, will continue to monitor the wind
potential as strong mixing and a tightening pressure gradient
could support impactful surface winds worthy of a mention in the
hwo. At this time the explicit guidance is not suggesting we will
need a wind advisory, but wind could certainly overachieve with
this scenario. Also, as mentioned in previous discussions, a few
flakes of snow cannot be ruled out over northeast portions of the
area, but with wet bulb zero heights likely not getting below 1500
ft prior to end of precipitation, will continue to leave any
wintry precip out of the forecast. Otherwise, given the faster
progression of the trough and earlier clearing Friday, expect
there to be enough Sun to allow some warming to more tolerable
levels by Friday afternoon.

Weather for the weekend and the approach of christmas day should
be milder with generally dry conditions. Weak high pressure will
be mostly in control, but a weak cold front could bring a bit of
light rain, especially from Sunday into christmas eve. Overall,
travel weather should be good for early next week, and high
temperatures mainly in the low mid 60s would be roughly 5 to 10
deg f above climatological normals. Ec

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 64 42 61 50 0 0 69 81
meridian 64 40 61 50 0 0 57 75
vicksburg 61 43 61 48 0 0 77 75
hattiesburg 64 43 64 52 0 0 82 69
natchez 60 43 61 49 0 0 82 61
greenville 60 42 58 47 0 0 59 81
greenwood 62 42 61 50 0 0 47 83

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Tw 10 15 ec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 82 mi50 min S 6 G 6 56°F 55°F1020.7 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS12 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair61°F46°F58%1021.3 hPa
Hattiesburg, Bobby L Chain Municipal Airport, MS23 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair60°F44°F56%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE43Calm
1 day agoN8NW5NW3NW3W3W3W3W3CalmNW4CalmCalmSW4S3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmSW3N3Calm3
2 days ago6W4NW3W3W3CalmNW3NW5W4NW55CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N3CalmN3N3N6N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:42 AM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:08 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM CST     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.40.30.30.20.20.20.30.40.60.70.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:35 AM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:08 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.40.30.20.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.31.21.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.