Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bassfield, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:52PM Friday February 23, 2018 2:36 PM CST (20:36 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 1:38AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 918 Am Cst Fri Feb 23 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning. Showers likely through the day. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds near 10 knots becoming east late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 918 Am Cst Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis..Persistent onshore flow will continue through early Sunday. Another cold front will move off the coast late Sunday but become stationary in the northern gulf Monday before moving north as a warm front Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bassfield, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 231804
afdjan
area forecast discussion
national weather service jackson ms
1204 pm cst Fri feb 23 2018

Severe weather expected across portions of the area Saturday
night into early Sunday morning...

Update
Updated for 18z aviation discussion

Aviation
18z TAF discussion:
an expansive area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue to move north through the CWA this afternoon into this
evening. Showers will begin impacting hbg jan hks within the next
few hours with mei and eventually glh gwo gtr through the
afternoon into tonight. Expect MVFR ceilings with brief visibility
reductions with any of this activity. Ceilings will lower to ifr
across much of the area tonight with visibility reductions
possible at hbg. A few showers could linger overnight, but the
bulk of the rainfall will move out tonight. Winds will remain out
of the south southeast through the forecast period and will
increase tomorrow morning, especially at glh gwo with gusts up to
20kts possible and increasing through tomorrow afternoon. Tw

Discussion
The arklamiss region remains entrenched beneath southwesterly flow
aloft as a stout shortwave trough digs across the desert
southwest and a subtropical ridge remains centered just off the
southeast coast. The best moisture quality is located over the
southern and western portions of the area this morning with a
relative min in pwats over east central mississippi. However, a
pwat MAX located over lake pontchartrain will advect in to
southern mississippi along with positive thetae advection. There
is already an area of ongoing convection associated with this
moisture MAX and latest hi-res guidance is in agreement that this
activity will spread north through the afternoon across much of
the area. While the thermodynamic environment is supportive of
severe weather, the shear profiles are weak and marginal.

Nonetheless, a few strong and perhaps an isolated severe
thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. Additionally, these
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall so
isolated flash flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, especially
along and northwest of the natchez trace corridor and in the delta
where the heaviest rain has fallen over the last few days. Will
continue to highlight this potential with the ongoing flooding
threat in the hwo graphics. Made a few tweaks to pops and max
temps, but otherwise the ongoing forecast is still on track. Tw
prior discussion below:
today and tonight... No real changes to the forecast. The boundary
remains just to the west of the cwa, where rain and a few
thunderstorms were training over the same areas. For now, it still
looks like the best flooding risk will remain over the delta
region, where a few streams were out of their banks and standing
water remains on roadways. The models seemed to be a few hours
showers with the development of convection this afternoon.

Thinking showers will be isolated at best through early afternoon
and become more scattered in nature as the wave gets closer. The
best rain chances seem to be tonight. The models keep the boundary
west of the region, but agree a wave will move out of the gulf,
bringing rain and a few thunderstorms. With rain so close to
counties in the west that have standing water, left elevated risk
for flash flooding in the hwo. The grounds are saturated across
the entire area with lots of poor drainage area, so also kept the
limited flooding in for the rest of the area generally north of
20. It looks like the heavier rain won't move in before Saturday.

Stuck with guidance for temps, above normal values in the lower
mid 80s should hold on through today, near record breaking again.

Saturday through Thursday night... Looks like a very active and wet
extended period in store for the arklamiss. The strong ridge that
has been over the area will finally begin to break down on Saturday
as a strong short wave approaches the area. The big factor on
Saturday afternoon and evening will be the gusty southerly winds.

The strongest winds will be over the delta, where winds may approach
wind advisory criteria, with gusts to 40 mph possible. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and
evening, but expect the bulk of the activity to occur Saturday
evening through early Sunday morning, as the short wave and
associated cold front move across the area. Expect a fast moving
qlcs to move across the area during this period, and with strong
pressure falls, 50-55kts of deep layer shear and good instability,
some of the storms will be strong to severe. The main risk for
severe looks like it will generally be along and north of the i-20
corridor, but there will be an enhanced risk for portions of the
delta. Will continue to highlight these areas in the hwo, and also
upgrade portions of the delta to an enhanced risk.

The boundary gets hung up over the area on Sunday, with another
short wave and associated surface low moving over the area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. There are significant differences
between the gfs ECMWF on rainfall amounts and how far north the
precipitation develops across the area during this period. The ecmwf
is much further north and heavier, with around 1.0 to 1.5 inches of
rain Sunday and Sunday night, while the GFS is much lighter and
further south. The canadian model is also towards the lighter side.

Wpc guidance leans towards the heavier ecmwf, so will go with this
guidance for now. Due to the potential of more rain Saturday night
and Sunday, will continue to advertise a limited threat for flooding
in the graphicast and hwo through the weekend.

We will finally get a break on Monday as cool high pressure builds
across the area, with high temperatures climbing to around 70
degrees. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s for much of the area
by Tuesday morning. Surface high pressure will continue to prevail
Monday night into Tuesday, but moisture will begin to increase once
again on Tuesday as the surface flow becomes more southerly. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday as another short wave moves across
the area. The active weather pattern will continue on Thursday as
another stronger short wave and associated cold front brings one
more round of storms. 15

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 81 66 82 56 65 58 45 88
meridian 82 65 81 61 39 46 46 72
vicksburg 81 66 84 54 71 48 46 75
hattiesburg 81 66 83 65 59 46 37 55
natchez 79 67 83 58 83 50 45 85
greenville 76 65 80 51 60 75 67 92
greenwood 80 66 81 53 54 72 64 79

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Tw 07 15


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 86 mi54 min SE 18 G 23 73°F 74°F1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS27 mi40 minE 510.00 miFair74°F66°F76%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tchefuncta River, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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Tchefuncta River
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:37 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:55 AM CST     0.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:09 AM CST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:33 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:42 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:14 PM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:55 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.30.30.30.30.20.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.100.10.10.20.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wolf River, Henderson Avenue bridge, Mississippi
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Wolf River
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:33 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 AM CST     First Quarter
Fri -- 03:43 AM CST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:27 PM CST     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.100.20.40.60.70.911.11.21.21.110.80.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.