Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:40 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 4:06 PM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 943 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Overnight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 943 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure centered off to our east-northeast will provide persistent southeast flow of around 10 to 15 knots through next week.

FXUS64 KJAN 050333 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1033 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New MESOSCALE UPDATE

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rest of tonight...

Evening RAP analysis/GOES East water vapor imagery westerly flow aloft across the region, with dwindling rain chances. Stronger shortwave ascent is again leading to ascent & GOES East infrared imagery indicate MCS/cold cloud tops across the southern Plains.
PWs have come up across the region but most convection has died down. Clouds will gradually fill in from the west, with rain after daybreak, but moist southeasterly boundary layer flow will pick up before then. Lows will fall into the mid-upper 60s, with crossover temps not as as much as last night & focused more into southern-southeast MS. This pattern supports low stratus & dense fog developing overnight across the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. HRRR probs >15-30% expanding up to near the I-20 corridor, but some concerns with clouds lingering & high clouds later decrease some confidence. Convective allowing models (CAMs) indicate potential for areas of dense fog across the Pine Belt, mainly focused along & southeast of a line from Lincoln, Lawrence, Simpson, Smith, Jasper & Clarke counties in MS. Added a "Limited" in HWO graphics for patchy dense fog. Can't rule out it expanding further north & being more areal coverage. Some HRRR probs are hitting pretty hard in the 35-50% range in the Jefferson Davis to Jones & Marion to Forrest corridor. Held off on any "Elevated" or dense fog advisory for now. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Tonight through Sunday...Isolated showers/storms will be possible into the early evening hours, but will dissipate with skies becoming partly cloudy overnight. A short wave will move into the area on Sunday with more scattered showers/storms Sunday afternoon and evening. With decent instability, afternoon heating and at least some flow, strong to possibly severe storms will be possible mainly for areas along and north of the Natchez Trace Corridor. A graphic has already been issued for this potential. Highs will range from around 80 in the west to the upper 80s in the east. The storms will move east of the area during the evening hours. /15/

Monday through Saturday:

As a closed low pressure system cuts off over the Northern High Plains through the early part of the work week, upper-level flow over the Southern CONUS will increase. Ripples in the flow interacting with a warm, moist air mass over the Gulf Coast will continue to support mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms through midweek. Thursday into Friday, ridging over the eastern CONUS is expected to flatten and allow for shortwave energy to eject east across the Midwest and Great Lakes region. A cold front pushing south into our forecast area during this time frame will be a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity, eventually yielding to cooler and drier air with high pressure coming out of the Plains.
/NF/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Other than a few storms on the edges of the area in the northwest MS and southern MS, expect dissipation over the next hour or so.
Some MVFR vsby due to BR are psbl around the area, with LIFR low stratus/dense fog expected overnight at HBG/PIB & psbl at MEI.
Onset timing looks to be around 05/08-10Z before lifting to VFR flight categories around 05/14-15Z. Light southerly sfc winds will persist, sustained up to 10mph & brief higher gusts up to 15mph. Some light SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl Sunday aftn, with highest confidence for introduction at GLH & GWO for the 00Z TAF cycle. There are low probs at GTR, JAN, HKS & HEZ after 05/20-21Z through the end of the period. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 65 84 67 86 / 20 50 30 30 Meridian 64 88 65 88 / 20 50 30 30 Vicksburg 66 83 66 86 / 10 50 30 30 Hattiesburg 66 88 68 88 / 20 30 10 20 Natchez 66 83 66 86 / 20 50 20 30 Greenville 67 80 68 84 / 10 60 60 30 Greenwood 66 83 67 85 / 10 70 60 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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