Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bassfield, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:56PM Monday December 10, 2018 2:34 AM CST (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 933 Pm Cst Sun Dec 9 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 933 Pm Cst Sun Dec 9 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build across the central gulf coast region through Tuesday before shifting east of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters late Thursday and Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bassfield, MS
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location: 31.5, -89.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 100538 aaa
afdjan
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
1138 pm cst Sun dec 9 2018

Update
Updated for 06z aviation discussion

Aviation
06z TAF discussion:
flight conditions at 530z ranged fromVFR in the NW to MVFR in the
ne and ifr cntrl and south. Conditions will continue to slowly
improve from the west through Monday. Gtr wl be the last site to
improve toVFR conds after 18z.VFR conds Monday aftn wl last
through Monday night. 22

Discussion
The near term forecast is generally on track but have made a few
adjustments based on recent trends in the delta region where the
back edge of the stratus deck has eroded fairly quick allowing
temperatures to drop a little faster than forecast. Also,
crossover temperatures for determining fog potential have already
been exceeded in the relatively moist boundary layer, and fog has
been forming as a result. Given that low temperatures are
expected to fall well below freezing in this area, have included
patchy "freezing fog" in the forecast. This is not expected to
become dense enough to cause any travel impacts. Otherwise,
expect erosion of the stratus to continue, but it is uncertain
when it will get east of the i-55 corridor, which will have a big
say in how much temperatures fall overnight over central eastern
ms. Ec
prior discussion below:
tomorrow:
some low clouds will hang around in the east on Monday, but skies
will become partly cloudy over much of the area by Monday afternoon
as high pressure builds into the area. High temperatures will remain
cool, ranging from the low 40s in the north to around 50 in the
south. 15
Monday night into next weekend:
some moderation of temperatures will thankfully occur this
period, but not before good radiational cooling conditions allow
for widespread lows in the 20s Monday night. Thereafter, southerly
to southwesterly flow will take over in the lower levels of the
atmosphere as chilly high pressure moves off to the east. Warming
would ordinarily be more pronounced with this transition, but cold
ground and clouds already starting to infiltrate back in from the
west by Wednesday will put a damper on major warming potential
(at least for daytime highs).

The increase in clouds on Wednesday will occur as another in a
continual parade of upper disturbances moves into the mid to lower
mississippi valleys. The initial disturbance will be a little too
moisture-starved to produce much more than clouds, but it will be
quickly following by a larger and amplifying disturbance coming on
its heels for Thursday (and then taking its sweet time to exit
through Friday). Rain chances will increase Wednesday night
through early Thursday and likely peak in the late Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night timeframe, before slowly ebbing
Friday through early Saturday. There will be some chance for
embedded thunderstorms mixing in with the rain, mainly Thursday
and Thursday night, but at this point the prospect for vigorous or
surface-based convection appears too low to worry much about
severe weather. Considering the current near-saturated state of
the ground, the risk from locally heavy rainfall is of a bit
greater concern. However, even this risk does not yet rank high
enough to warrant inclusion in the hwo or graphics, mainly because
intense expected synoptic lift will only have middling atmospheric
moisture to work with. Still cannot rule out an inch or two of
rain with this system in spots so we will continue to watch the
evolution of things closely as we go into the work week.

Also worth briefly mentioning that we will also have to watch for
any "colder" trends with this system. The latest euro model run
suggests a lot of dynamic cooling (i.E., essentially bringing down
very cold air from the heart of the disturbance aloft), although
model consensus is good that there will be no truly arctic air
mass in the vicinity. Usually winter weather around here requires
such arctic air in the vicinity, but wintry surprises can
sometimes happen when dynamic cooling greatly overachieves. At
this point the mentioned european run is an outlier on the cold
side and no winter weather is therefore anticipated, but, of
course, the trends will be monitored.

All signs points to at least a bit of break in the bad weather after
the mentioned system gets out of the way by Friday night or so
with no signs of very cold air coming south in its wake. However,
the active weather pattern does not look to abate anytime soon and
another shot of precipitation by early next week is looking more
likely. Bb

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 28 47 25 54 5 2 1 0
meridian 33 48 26 54 8 3 3 1
vicksburg 29 46 25 55 5 1 0 0
hattiesburg 32 50 28 56 5 2 1 0
natchez 29 49 25 56 5 1 0 0
greenville 27 43 24 52 5 1 0 0
greenwood 28 44 24 53 5 2 0 0

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

15 22 ec bb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 86 mi35 min NNW 14 G 17 41°F 52°F1022.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hattiesburg/Laurel, Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport, MS27 mi39 minNNW 57.00 miOvercast38°F36°F93%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from PIB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW3NW5NW7NW7NW7NW9
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2 days agoN3N4CalmCalmNE5E4E4E6E7SE7E8E6E6NE4E5E6E5E5SE5E3NE5NE5NE7NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi
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Waveland
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:06 AM CST     1.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.61.41.10.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.100.20.30.50.70.911.11.31.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi
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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM CST     1.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:57 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.81.61.41.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.80.91.11.21.31.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.