Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Riceboro, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:26PM Monday November 19, 2018 7:34 PM EST (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 3:07AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 610 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
AMZ300 610 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will move through late Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will prevail through late in the week. An area of low pressure will move through the region late this week and this weekend, resulting in unsettled weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Riceboro, GA
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location: 31.54, -81.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 192322
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
622 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move through late Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will prevail through late in the week. An area of
low pressure will move through the region late this week and
this weekend, resulting in unsettled weather.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 615 pm: cloud cover is expected to increase across the
region tonight. However, extreme SE ga will likely be the last
location to see ceilings develop. Near term models and mos
indicate that patchy fog may form along the lower altamaha river
late tonight. I will update the forecast to adjust sky cover
timing and add a mention of patchy fog for mcintosh, long and
tattnall counties.

Previous discussion:
the subtropical jet will intensify across the southeast u.S.

Tonight as shortwave energy digs out of the ohio valley and into
the tennessee valley. The associated cold front will clear the
southern appalachians early Tuesday morning keeping the entire
forecast area in the warm sector prior to daybreak. A westerly
pre-frontal environment and a dry tropospheric conditions
featuring pwats <1" will result in rain- free conditions with
overnight lows tempered by weak low-level warm air advection and
thickening cirrus aloft. Lows will range from the lower 50s
inland to the upper 50s at the beaches.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
Tuesday and Tuesday night: a broad mid and upper level trough will
encompass the eastern half of the conus, with a surface cold front
poised to move through later in the day. Overall, the front will be
relatively moisture starved, primarily producing cloud cover across
the region. Model soundings show the bulk of the moisture between
700-850 mb, with much drier air above and below that layer. A few
models do generate some light precipitation, but it seems prudent to
maintain a dry forecast at this point. Instead, the expectation is
that the front and trough aloft will manifest as just cloud cover,
which will decrease from the west in the afternoon. The actual cold
front is not expected to reach the coast until the evening, so the
forecast area will be in the milder air mass out ahead of it. Highs
are forecast to range in the upper 60s for most areas, with some low
70s possible along the coast, especially the georgia coast.

Overnight, the front will move quickly offshore and high pressure
will begin to nose in from the north. Mostly clear skies are
expected with lows ranging from the upper 30s well inland to the
upper 40s at the coast.

Wednesday through Thursday: confluent zonal flow will prevail into
Thursday morning when a well defined shortwave approaches from the
west late in the day. Expansive canadian high pressure will move
across the great lakes and almost to new england through Thursday
evening. This high will prevail across the forecast area, bringing
clear skies on Wednesday and increasing clouds Thursday.

Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs ranging from the upper
50s around lake moultrie to the low mid 60s near the altamaha.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Model guidance is becoming better aligned regarding formation of a
gulf low near the western edge of the gulf of mexico late Thursday
as mid and upper level shortwave troughing exits the desert
southwest and enters the central u.S. Guidance diverges on the
evolution of the pattern aloft heading into the weekend, but low
pressure looks increasingly likely to move east or northeast near or
over the area through the weekend, bringing another round of
unsettled weather. An additional trailing shortwave trough could
transit near the region early next week, but it remains unclear how
much moisture will be available to work with. The 19 00z GFS and
ecmwf depict widely different scenarios, increasing forecast
uncertainty late in the long term period.

Aviation 23z Monday through Saturday
Vfr conditions through the 0z TAF period. Mid-clouds will
increase across the terminals this evening and are forecast to
remain bkn-ovc through mid-day Tuesday. Monday afternoon should
feature few to sct sky with steady NW winds.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
both terminals into late week. Flight restrictions will be possible
this weekend as low pressure moves nearby.

Marine
Tonight: benign conditions will prevail overnight with west
winds 10 kt or less. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: a cold front will approach the waters
on Tuesday and winds ahead of the front will be out of the
west-southwest mainly in the 10-15 knot range. Behind the front,
high pressure will begin building in and winds will shift to
more northerly and then northeasterly with time. By Thursday,
the northeast gradient will tighten significantly and wind
speeds will increase to the point where small craft advisories
look increasingly likely. These advisories will likely be needed
through at least Friday. By Friday night and Saturday an area
of low pressure is expected to impact the region though there is
considerable model disagreement regarding the eventual track of
the low.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ned
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 9 mi34 min SSW 4.1 62°F 1019 hPa (+1.0)60°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 23 mi44 min S 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 69°F2 ft1018.8 hPa (-0.0)61°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 39 mi34 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 62°F 63°F1019.5 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick / Glynco, GA22 mi39 minW 410.00 miFair61°F57°F88%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from BQK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3NW3N4NW3CalmNW4N3CalmCalmCalmSW4S3W4W5CalmW4W3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE5NE7NE9NE8NE6NE7NE4NE6NE5NE4N3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Dog Hammock, Sapelo River, Georgia
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Dog Hammock
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Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:06 AM EST     7.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM EST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:33 PM EST     7.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:40 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.64.25.76.97.3764.531.711.22.23.65.16.37.17.16.453.41.80.7

Tide / Current Tables for Harris Neck, Barbour Island River, Georgia
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Harris Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 AM EST     7.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:27 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:54 PM EST     7.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.22.43.95.56.87.57.56.65.23.62.11.21.223.44.96.37.27.56.95.742.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.