Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nicholls, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 7:59 AM EDT (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 7:38PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming east southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters becoming a light chop.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming east southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday night..East southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 339 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure extending from the southeastern gulf of mexico to the southeastern seaboard will shift southward and will weaken through midweek. A weak cold front will move southward and stall near the georgia waters by late Wednesday. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross our waters on Friday night and early Saturday. Weak high pressure will build over our region this weekend in the wake of this front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nicholls, GA
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location: 31.54, -82.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 280859
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
459 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Near record high temperatures across southeast georgia today
and Wednesday...

Currently
Early morning surface analysis depicts weak high pressure (1018
millibars) extending from the southeastern gulf of mexico to off
the carolina coast. A cold front extends from the lower
mississippi valley northeastward through the tennessee and ohio
valley regions, with several areas of weak low pressure noted
along the front. Aloft... A shortwave trough was progressing
eastward across the ohio valley, with a vorticity lobe extending
southwestward from this feature across the southern appalachians.

Zonal flow aloft prevails locally. Isolated light showers
developed over the eastern half of southeast georgia overnight
downstream of this vorticity lobe, and this activity was pushing
offshore as of 09z. A broken deck of mid level cloudiness was
progressing slowly eastward across coastal southeast georgia and
portions of northeast florida. Fair skies prevail elsewhere, with
temperatures and dewpoints at 09z generally ranging from the
upper 50s to the mid 60s. These temperatures are about 10-15
degrees above late march climo.

Near term Today through Wednesday...

patches of fog and lower stratus may develop early this morning
over north central fl, the suwannee valley, and our western ga
counties. Otherwise, mid level cloudiness will move offshore
towards sunrise, with any fog and low stratus that manages to
develop also dissipating shortly after sunrise. The shortwave
trough well to the north of our region will move offshore of the
mid-atlantic coast by this evening, pushing a weak cold front
southeastward into the appalachians and the lower mississippi
valley. Cirrus associated with waning convection along the front
this morning over northern ga will filter our morning sunshine and
will then depart our region this afternoon. Any convection
developing ahead of this front should remain north of the
altamaha/ocmulgee rivers today. Our flow aloft will become
northwesterly by this afternoon, with heights aloft rising as a
deep trough digs from the desert southwest into west texas and
northern mexico. As the low level ridge over our region this
morning continues to sink southward, a light w/sw low level flow
will prevail. Our local pressure gradient will be loose enough to
allow the atlantic sea breeze to push past area beaches, but it
will likely not make it to the i-95 corridor later this afternoon.

High temperatures will continue to climb, with inland locations
reaching the mid to upper 80s. A slightly delayed afternoon sea
breeze will allow highs to reach the lower 80s shortly after noon
at the coast.

The weak cold front to our north will continue to sink southward
into central ga overnight. W/sw flow in the low levels ahead of
this feature will likely bring low stratus and fog into inland
southeast ga, the suwannee valley and north central fl overnight,
with some radiation fog development possible during the predawn
hours at eastern locales. Lows over inland northeast and north
central fl will fall to the upper 50s, with low to mid 60s
expected elsewhere.

The deep trough over west texas will continue a slow eastward
progression on Wednesday. Our flow aloft will back to a w/sw
direction, and the global models depict a weak shortwave trough
embedded within this w/sw flow approaching our western locations
during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary over
central ga early in the day will progress slowly southward to near
the altamaha river, and this boundary and the weak approaching
shortwave may be enough for isolated to widely scattered
convection to develop during the afternoon hours across inland
portions of southeast ga. The weak ridge axis to our south will
keep offshore flow in place, with a pinned sea breeze not making
much inland progress during the afternoon hours. Heights aloft
will continue to slowly rise, with highs ticking up another
degree or two. Inland locations will soar into the upper 80s, with
coastal highs remaining in the lower 80s.

Short term Wed night through Fri night...

wed night... Mid level 500 mb ridge axis will break down over the
deep south as a washed out frontal zone will extend over the
adjacent coastal waters and across SE ga. A few fading evening sea
breeze showers will be possible across inland areas then mostly
dry conditions expected over night with lingering debris clouds
and patchy fog developing after midnight. Above normal warmth will
continue with low temperatures falling into the 60s for most
locations with some upper 50s possible in cooler inland locales.

Thu... Increased rain chances across the area as the lingering
trough axis across SE ga and meandering near the NE fl coast
interacts with sea breezes as the mid ridge shifts east of the
region and SW steering flow funnels over the area. Gfs20
advertised precipitable water (pwats) rising to 1.3 to 1.5
inches... Well above average for this time of year (average 0.83
inches). With the low level forcing triggers and increased deep
layer moisture advertised diurnally driven showers and tstorms
moving inland along the sea breezes through Thu with a merger
focused along and near the i-75 corridor in the afternoon/evening.

Max temps will continue above normal with highs in the upper 80s
inland which could challenge the record high for the date across
parts of SE ga.

Thu night... Shower and tstorm coverage will gradually decrease
after sunset... But will maintain low rain chances as the
aforementioned trough axis begins to morph into a warm front and
lifts across SE ga. Patchy fog will be possible across NE fl after
midnight. Low temperatures will range in the 60s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

Fri & Fri night... Rain chances increase from the west ahead of an
approaching cold front. Latest gfs20 indicated a more potent mid
level short wave trough advancing across our forecast area with a
surface low developing across al and advancing across ga into fri
evening with a dry slot cutting off rainfall across SE ga fri
afternoon with a robust amount of rainfall across NE fl associated
with a fading squall line morphing into a hefty MCS like feature
with an 850 mb jet of 45-50 kts moving inland across apalachee bay
fri midday. This regime would bring a chance of strong tstorms
across NE fl fri... Suwannee valley late morning then the remainder
of NE fl Fri afternoon. The ECMWF was farther north with the
surface low and not as robust with dynamics... Thus yield less
widespread rainfall across the area and even a split pattern in
rainfall as the squall line moves into the big bend. At this time
used the model consensus which advertised the highest rain chances
of 40-50%. Precip and the cold front will push south of the area
fri evening with clearing skies and cooler, drier NW flow lowering
min temps back into the 50s for much of the area with some lower
60s along the coast and across our southern zones.

Long term Sat through tue...

weekend... Dry and mild as upper ridge builds back over the eastern
gulf of mexico and weak surface high pressure builds from the
ms/oh river valleys to offshore of the SE atlantic coast.

Temperatures will moderate this period with highs in the 80s and
cooler lows in the 50s inland due to drier air in place.

Mon & tue... Model discrepancy remains with the timing and
intensity of the next frontal system. The gfs20 keeps Mon warm
and dry with a pre-frontal squall line crossing the local area tue
while the ECMWF was much more progressive and brings the front
and rainfall across the area Monday with drier conditions tue.

Once again leaned toward model consensus which advertised a chance
of rainfall each day (30-40%) and MAX temps cooling into the low
80s with mins generally in the 60s.

Aviation
Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at gnv through 13z.

Otherwise,VFR ceilings of 6000-10000 feet will depart our region
towards 13z. Southwest winds around 10 knots or less will prevail
today, except at sgj and ssi, where the atlantic coast sea breeze
will push across these terminals between 16z-18z, with winds
becoming onshore near 10 knots through sunset.

Marine
A persistent long period easterly ocean swell will keep wave
heights elevated in the 4-6 foot range in the offshore waters
today, where small craft should exercise caution. 3-5 foot seas
will prevail near shore through tonight. Otherwise, a surface
ridge extending from the southeastern gulf of mexico to off the
carolina coast will sink southward while weakening through
midweek. Seas will fall below just the caution range offshore
tonight in the offshore waters. Our local pressure gradient will
remain rather loose through late Wednesday, allowing afternoon
sea breeze development over the near shore waters. A strong high
pressure center over eastern canada will press southward by late
Wednesday and Thursday, pushing a weak frontal boundary to near
the georgia waters. This front will stall and then move back
northward as a warm front on Thursday night as a cold front enters
the southeastern states. This weather pattern will tighten our
local pressure gradient, with onshore winds gradually
strengthening on Thursday, reaching caution speeds for the near
shore and offshore waters by Thursday evening. Seas will build to
small craft advisory levels in the offshore waters on Friday as
winds become southerly. The front will cross our coastal waters
late on Friday afternoon, with offshore winds developing and
remaining at caution speeds on Friday night. Weak high pressure
will then build over our region this weekend, with winds and seas
quickly diminishing early on Saturday.

Rip currents: a persistent long period easterly ocean swell will
keep a moderate rip current risk in place at all area beaches
today. This swell will linger at the northeast florida beaches on
Wednesday, with a moderate risk continuing for all but the
southeast georgia beaches.

Climate Record MAX temperatures may be challenged across SE ga both Wed and thu.

Site march 29 march 30
records records
jax 89/1991 89/1961
gnv 94/1907 94/1907
amg 86/1998 86/1998
ssi 85/2012 88/1954

Preliminary point temps/pops
Amg 86 61 87 62 / 10 10 20 20
ssi 80 65 80 64 / 0 0 10 10
jax 85 61 86 63 / 0 0 10 10
sgj 82 62 82 65 / 10 0 0 10
gnv 86 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 85 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0

Jax watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Nelson/enyedi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 75 mi60 min SW 6 65°F 1017 hPa (+1.0)62°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 89 mi42 min S 2.9 G 7 66°F 69°F1017.8 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 98 mi70 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 65°F 63°F4 ft1016.2 hPa (+0.0)62°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Douglas, Douglas Municipal Airport, GA9 mi85 minS 310.00 miFair61°F59°F94%1016.9 hPa
Alma, Bacon County Airport, GA11 mi67 minS 410.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from DQH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW5SW6SW6W6W3W4SW3SW4SE3S4S3CalmCalmSE5S5CalmS3SW5S3CalmSW3SW3SW3
1 day agoSE3S4S5SW6SW6S6S7CalmS3S5S4SE4CalmSE3SE6SE5S5CalmSE3S5CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3E4SE4SE8S8SE7SE6SE6SE6SE5SE4SE4SE3SE4SE4SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Burnt Fort, Satilla River, Georgia
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Burnt Fort
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Tue -- 01:25 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.63.73.32.61.70.80.1-0.4-0.40.41.52.63.43.63.42.921.10.3-0.3-0.50.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Below Spring Bluff, Little Satilla River, Georgia
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Below Spring Bluff
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:59 AM EDT     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:08 AM EDT     8.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:27 PM EDT     8.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.75.93.51.3-0.4-1.1-0.31.746.17.78.486.64.42-0-1.1-0.813.45.87.78.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Moody AFB, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.