Friday, February22, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hallsburg, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:22PM Friday February 22, 2019 5:52 AM CST (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hallsburg, TX
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location: 31.56, -97     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 221011
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
411 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Short term
Through Saturday
periods of fog, drizzle, a few thunderstorms, and then fairly
vigorous winds during the short-term period -- a little something
for everybody!
a cool, moist air mass remains solidly established beneath a stout
elevated mixed layer (noted in our 22 00z sounding) currently.

With another shortwave impulse approaching our region at present,
further saturation of low levels should bring about increasing
drizzle, shower activity, and some fog, especially for areas
along west of the i-35 corridor through mid morning. While
residual t-td spreads have kept fog from becoming dense on a
widespread scale, aforementioned saturation may decrease
visibilities sufficiently for more areas of dense fog towards
daybreak, and this will be monitored accordingly.

Through morning and into the afternoon hours, this low-amplitude
system will lift northeast across north texas. Forecast soundings
(and the observed steep mid-level lapse rates from our 00z
sounding) suggest positive theta-e advection and implied
isentropic ascent may support isolated thunderstorm activity ahead
of this wave. Given fast convective-layer flow and steep mid-
level lapse rates, especially towards central texas, small hail in
the strongest cores will be possible once again.

Behind this system, fog and drizzle may decrease some during the
afternoon, before likely re-developing during the evening and
overnight hours, owing to light surface winds, moist conditions,
and weak warm advection. Areas of dense fog will be possible.

This fog is expected prior to the glancing influence of a very
compact mid-level low over the southern high plains. As one
vorticity lobe rotates around this cyclone tonight, the closed
low will eject northeast, forcing a pacific front east across
north and central texas. The front should enter western north
texas after 3am and clear eastern areas towards 9am. Convergence
along the front and the mid upper low should offer enough ascent
for at least a few thunderstorms. However, maintenance of cool
surface air across most, if not all, of north and central texas
and dry air aloft may significantly limit convective activity
through daybreak, especially given that the core of the strongest
height falls will only glance richer boundary-layer theta-e air
(focused towards east texas). Still, we will have to monitor the
potential for at least a few elevated hailstorms east of the 35
corridor towards sunrise. Additionally, any substantial northward
advance of unstable surface air would yield a threat of damaging
winds as well. However, the NAM and several cams indicate that
this cool, moist low-level air mass, albeit shallow, will yield
little ground through tonight. This evolution seems quite
reasonable, relative to the more aggressive scouring of stable air
shown by medium- range global guidance. In turn, while some
severe potential cannot be discounted (especially the elevated
hail threat), continue to think that a more notable threat will be
confined east of our area.

Lastly, Saturday will be quite windy, initially from the west
behind the pacific front and then eventually the northwest behind
a stronger cold front. Ample momentum and deeper mixing could
support sustained winds as high as 30-35 mph, especially west of
i-35 and north of i-20. Also sided with the warmer side of
guidance for highs, which will be boosted by a strong downslope
component. Some fire-weather concerns will likely exist as a
result, and this is discussed in greater detail in the fire-
weather planning forecast.


Long term
Saturday night through next week
following the late week weather event, generally zonal flow will
ensue and prevail throughout much of the upcoming week. A rex
block in the pacific around alaska's longitude will prevent any
similar southern stream cyclones into early march. However, subtle
ripples in the flow will bring periodic rain chances and
subsequent cold fronts during the final week of february.

Following a remarkably mild day on Saturday, cp air will filter
into north and central texas in the wake of the departing storm
system. Despite sunny skies and dry air, temperatures will only
peak in the 50s Sunday afternoon. A warming trend will begin the
workweek with seasonal highs in the 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Low-level moisture will gradually return, more vigorously into
east texas. But when a weak wave swings through late Tuesday into
Tuesday night, a strengthening inversion may effectively cap the
boundary layer. As a result, will only carry some low-end pops in
the east.

A mistimed cold front will arrive on Wednesday, free of
precipitation. A more substantial shortwave will arrive on
Thursday, but guidance differs with respect to the moisture
profile above the chilly boundary layer. This is not a favorable
setup for overrunning precipitation, the hallmark of postfrontal
days in february, but a few elevated showers may result in some
sprinkles into the cool surface layer.


Aviation issued 1142 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
06z tafs
MVFR CIGS across the metroplex TAF sites will continue to build
down to ifr over the next few hours, while ifr has just crept
across the waco airfield. Several waves of ascent will overspread
the increasingly saturated low-levels overnight and through the
morning hours on Friday resulting in episodic bouts of drizzle and
locally reduced visibilities. The main area of warm-advection-
induced lift looks to focus right along the i-20 corridor late
tonight. As a result, i've continued to advertise some pretty low
vsbys, especially immediately before and after daybreak Friday as
a more cohesive area of ra or dz moves up from the southwest. Waco
may actually remain on the eastern periphery of the deeper
moisture and ascent, but at least periods of ifr to lifr
cigs vsbys seem reasonable tonight and Friday morning.

With persistent northeasterly flow in place through the day
maintaining a deep fetch of moisture into the area under a +12c
temperature inversion at 850 mb, it seems unlikely that any of our
sites will manage to break out of ifr during the afternoon hours.

This will then set the stage for potentially widespread lifr
conditions Friday evening and overnight.

Surface winds will generally be out of the east-northeast tonight
and through the day on Friday, but southeasterly and eventually
southerly flow should return Friday evening ahead of the next
potent disturbance. The chances for thunder at the TAF sites
appear low through tonight, but may briefly tick up during the
mid-morning on Friday as some additional moisture works in around
700 mb. This potential is much too low to advertise in the taf,
with the better chances seemingly displaced across parts of east

The aformentioned potent system will race into the region towards
the end of the dfw extended taf. While there is some conditional
potential for thunder during the 23 10 to 23 14z timeframe,
soundings still look pretty capped. Opted to just advertise vcsh,
but with such a dynamic system, we'll need to keep an eye on a
quick tsra potential as rapid lifting and cooling of the lingering
inversion takes places.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 54 49 68 37 57 60 60 40 0 0
waco 54 49 71 39 59 60 60 40 0 0
paris 52 48 70 36 56 60 70 100 0 0
denton 52 47 66 35 56 60 60 40 0 0
mckinney 53 49 66 36 56 60 60 60 0 0
dallas 54 50 70 38 58 70 60 50 0 0
terrell 54 49 68 37 57 70 60 70 0 0
corsicana 54 50 68 39 56 70 60 70 0 0
temple 55 48 72 39 59 60 50 40 0 0
mineral wells 54 46 69 33 57 50 50 20 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories

11 25

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX12 mi61 minENE 65.00 miFog/Mist48°F45°F89%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmN4N4N6N5NE6E15NE8NE9E10E8NE6NE8E8NE7E84
1 day agoNW9NW7NW4W5CalmCalmS5CalmE4S34SE6SE5E3SE5SE5S5E4CalmSE3NE4NE4CalmNW3
2 days agoN10NE11NE9NE7NE10NE8NE8NE9NE10N6NE7N11N9N9N7N8NW10NW10NW7N5NW7NW6NW11NW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.