Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellmead, TX
May 8, 2024 9:13 PM CDT (02:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:35 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 5:45 AM Moonset 8:17 PM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 090025 AAC AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 725 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
New Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:
Overall evolution of the current strong to severe storms initiation along a weak surface trough or frontal boundary is documented well below, as is the overall trends this evening. In addition, still appears stratus (and some fog) will be the main story overnight through Thursday morning as we encounter synoptic scale subsidence behind this first mid level shortwave with soupy surface dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The current weak surface trough/front will become semi-diffuse and just waggle back and forth 50 miles either side of it's current location from between Sherman and Bonham, to DFW, to Granbury and north of Comanche/Stephenville.
Another shortwave will move out northeast within the sub-tropical jet stream over northeast Mexico and over the top of the weak boundary and very steamy and unstable airmass during the afternoon hours Thursday and continue an overall, slow shift into East Texas later Thursday evening. This actually looks like the better window for scattered-numerous tstorms (40-%-60%) and current Slight-Enhanced risk area along and south of the retreating surface trough/front looks on point with all modes of severe weather possible, though damaging winds and very large hail look to be the main impacts with severe storms. Though the tornado threat will be non-zero due to weak and highly-veered 0-1km flow, any locally back low level flow from nearby storms along with very high instability (particularly Central Texas, could produce a strong tornado or two.
Lastly cloud cover, the strong-severe storms and locally heavy rainfall will combine with modest east and northeast winds for thankfully a much cooler day across North Texas Thursday with temperatures in the lower-mid 80s with a few areas in the Big Country possibly only warming into the upper 70s. Central Texas unfortunately will remain steamy and soupy in the 90s.
05/Marty
LONG TERM
/Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Friday and Beyond/
As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.
More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains region. With little to no surface-based instability present, thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so, the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40% chance that already water-logged locations across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of rainfall during this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place (dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least low end rain chances through the middle of next week.
Langfeld
AVIATION
/Issued 640 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /00z TAFs/
The weak surface boundary or cold front was current draped along a line from KGYI, to KFTW/KAFW, to between KSEP/KMWL as evidenced by a WNW wind shift near 10 kts with the weak FROPA while S/SE winds 10-13 kts remain further east. Isolated TSRA were now going up from in the soupy airmass with 70F+ dew pints from KF00/KPRX...SW to KTKI and toward KDFW/KDAL attm.
Any VCTS/TSRA impacts should shift S-E of D10 airports with mainly impacts to arrivals/departures occurring from the Bonham cornerpost, EBND air traffic, through the Cedar Creek cornerpost to the SBND traffic, though majority of TSRA impacts should remain just E of the SBND flow.
After 09z and especially 11z-12z/through 15z, low MVFR/IFR cigs will impact all airports, with Waco Regional Airport actually seeing near calm winds near the stalling boundary and potential for IFR-LIFR vsbys in BR/FG between 09z and almost 18z, before improving. NE winds 5-8 kts will occur just behind the weak front with TSRA re-firing near this boundary by/after 18z with NE-E winds 8-15 kts with a few higher gusts possible at all airports.
Coverage will be higher as will impacts at DFW/DAL airports through/past 00z Friday, with improvement occurring after 03z Friday.
05/Marty
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 82 63 80 62 / 30 50 20 0 5 Waco 75 87 63 77 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Paris 66 83 60 79 56 / 60 40 30 0 0 Denton 65 82 60 79 58 / 10 40 20 0 5 McKinney 66 82 61 79 58 / 30 50 20 0 5 Dallas 70 84 63 80 61 / 30 50 20 0 5 Terrell 68 85 62 79 58 / 40 50 30 0 5 Corsicana 73 85 63 81 61 / 20 50 30 0 5 Temple 75 87 64 79 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 81 60 80 58 / 5 40 20 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 725 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
New Short Term
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:
Overall evolution of the current strong to severe storms initiation along a weak surface trough or frontal boundary is documented well below, as is the overall trends this evening. In addition, still appears stratus (and some fog) will be the main story overnight through Thursday morning as we encounter synoptic scale subsidence behind this first mid level shortwave with soupy surface dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The current weak surface trough/front will become semi-diffuse and just waggle back and forth 50 miles either side of it's current location from between Sherman and Bonham, to DFW, to Granbury and north of Comanche/Stephenville.
Another shortwave will move out northeast within the sub-tropical jet stream over northeast Mexico and over the top of the weak boundary and very steamy and unstable airmass during the afternoon hours Thursday and continue an overall, slow shift into East Texas later Thursday evening. This actually looks like the better window for scattered-numerous tstorms (40-%-60%) and current Slight-Enhanced risk area along and south of the retreating surface trough/front looks on point with all modes of severe weather possible, though damaging winds and very large hail look to be the main impacts with severe storms. Though the tornado threat will be non-zero due to weak and highly-veered 0-1km flow, any locally back low level flow from nearby storms along with very high instability (particularly Central Texas, could produce a strong tornado or two.
Lastly cloud cover, the strong-severe storms and locally heavy rainfall will combine with modest east and northeast winds for thankfully a much cooler day across North Texas Thursday with temperatures in the lower-mid 80s with a few areas in the Big Country possibly only warming into the upper 70s. Central Texas unfortunately will remain steamy and soupy in the 90s.
05/Marty
LONG TERM
/Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /Friday and Beyond/
As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.
More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains region. With little to no surface-based instability present, thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so, the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40% chance that already water-logged locations across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of rainfall during this timeframe.
Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place (dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least low end rain chances through the middle of next week.
Langfeld
AVIATION
/Issued 640 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/ /00z TAFs/
The weak surface boundary or cold front was current draped along a line from KGYI, to KFTW/KAFW, to between KSEP/KMWL as evidenced by a WNW wind shift near 10 kts with the weak FROPA while S/SE winds 10-13 kts remain further east. Isolated TSRA were now going up from in the soupy airmass with 70F+ dew pints from KF00/KPRX...SW to KTKI and toward KDFW/KDAL attm.
Any VCTS/TSRA impacts should shift S-E of D10 airports with mainly impacts to arrivals/departures occurring from the Bonham cornerpost, EBND air traffic, through the Cedar Creek cornerpost to the SBND traffic, though majority of TSRA impacts should remain just E of the SBND flow.
After 09z and especially 11z-12z/through 15z, low MVFR/IFR cigs will impact all airports, with Waco Regional Airport actually seeing near calm winds near the stalling boundary and potential for IFR-LIFR vsbys in BR/FG between 09z and almost 18z, before improving. NE winds 5-8 kts will occur just behind the weak front with TSRA re-firing near this boundary by/after 18z with NE-E winds 8-15 kts with a few higher gusts possible at all airports.
Coverage will be higher as will impacts at DFW/DAL airports through/past 00z Friday, with improvement occurring after 03z Friday.
05/Marty
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 82 63 80 62 / 30 50 20 0 5 Waco 75 87 63 77 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Paris 66 83 60 79 56 / 60 40 30 0 0 Denton 65 82 60 79 58 / 10 40 20 0 5 McKinney 66 82 61 79 58 / 30 50 20 0 5 Dallas 70 84 63 80 61 / 30 50 20 0 5 Terrell 68 85 62 79 58 / 40 50 30 0 5 Corsicana 73 85 63 81 61 / 20 50 30 0 5 Temple 75 87 64 79 61 / 20 50 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 81 60 80 58 / 5 40 20 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCNW TSTC WACO,TX | 6 sm | 18 min | SSE 05 | 4 sm | Clear | Haze | 81°F | 75°F | 84% | 29.59 |
| KACT WACO RGNL,TX | 8 sm | 15 min | SSE 08 | 4 sm | Clear | Haze | 81°F | 75°F | 84% | 29.60 |
| KPWG MC GREGOR EXECUTIVE,TX | 13 sm | 17 min | S 07 | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 81°F | 77°F | 89% | 29.61 |
Central Texas,
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