Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmead, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:28PM Monday November 19, 2018 9:26 AM CST (15:26 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 3:13AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmead, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 191132
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
532 am cst Mon nov 19 2018

Aviation
12z tafs
scattered showers continue mainly southeast of waco at this hour
as an upper disturbance moves through the region. Most of the rain
should move to the northeast of the area later this morning.

Persistent CIGS from 3500-4500 ft linger across much of north
texas including all of the TAF sites. This will continue through
the morning before drier air finally begins clearing things out
from northwest to southeast. We'll keep CIGS in through 16-17z in
the metroplex and hang on to the clouds into the afternoon at
waco.VFR conditions are expected tonight through Tuesday with
light north winds.

Dunn

Short term issued 250 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
today and tonight
after a cold and cloudy day yesterday, we'll see clouds scatter
out today and temperatures rebound into the 50s this afternoon.

Water vapor imagery shows an elongated trough axis extending from
the 4-corners region all the way into the midwest. This feature
will slowly push eastward through tonight ushering in much drier
air aloft later today resulting in clearing skies. This morning,
some scattered showers will persist mainly across the southeast
counties in an area of weak isentropic ascent along with a weak
passing disturbance embedded in the fast westerly flow. This
forcing will quickly pull off to the east later this morning with
rain chances ending by midday. Skies will be a little slower to
clear across our far southern counties where precipitation is
ongoing, but most areas should be clear by this evening. Highs
today will top out in the low to mid 50s.

Another cold night is in store with high pressure in place and
light winds. Lows will range from near freezing in our northwest
counties to the mid upper 30s elsewhere.

Dunn

Long term issued 250 am cst Mon nov 19 2018
Tuesday onward
high pressure will be in control on Tuesday with upper ridging
ongoing aloft. The dry air in place should warm up rather quickly
with plenty of insolation. Overall, it should be a pleasant day,
and at least a few degrees warmer than Monday as winds slowly
return to the east. Moisture will remain scoured due to the
recent cold frontal passage, and will have a difficult time
recovering with an unfavorable gulf fetch.

By Wednesday, a split flow regime is expected to develop to our
west, with the southern branch shortwave expected to traverse the
forecast area on Wednesday. As this disturbance acts to enhance
low-level southerly wind fields, moisture will make some attempt
to return northward by midday. Depending on the degree of moisture
return, scattered showers will be possible through Wednesday
afternoon and evening as the main lift from the shortwave
impinges on the area. The NAM is the most aggressive with
returning moisture to the area while the GFS is quite dry, with
the ECMWF somewhere in between. While model QPF fields are
rather meager owing to the lack of moisture, the strong ascent
and steepening lapse rates associated with this vigorous disturbance
should be sufficient to allow some precipitation to develop. Have
kept pops a bit higher than what QPF depictions might typically
warrant. The NAM is even indicating sufficiently steep lapse
rates through the mid levels for some isolated thunder occurrences
across central texas, but will keep only showers in the worded
forecast for the time being. Otherwise, the increase in associated
cloud cover should keep temperatures on the cool side, around 60
degrees for highs.

In wake of the departing shortwave, a dry and pleasant
thanksgiving is expected with highs forecast to be just shy of
normal in the low to mid 60s. Winds should be fairly light out of
the south. A plume of mid high clouds may spread into the area
late in the day in advance of another disturbance forecast to
affect the area on Friday.

There are still some substantial differences among operational
models and their ensembles on how to handle the breakdown of the
west coast ridge through the end of the week. This continues to
wreak havoc on the forecast through days 5-7 with quite a bit of
uncertainty. The ECMWF remains the southernmost solution with an
amplifying trough to our west, digging a potent shortwave and an
associated 150+ kt upper jet into the southern plains. The gfs
remains a few hundred miles farther north with this energy,
positioning us on the equatorward side of the upper jet axis. The
ecmwf solution would support fairly widespread rain and
thunderstorms for us on Friday and heading into the weekend, while
the GFS would keep the greatest rain chances well to our north
and east. For now, have generally stuck with an ensemble mean
solution with some low pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area until some better agreement exists. It does appear
that a cold front associated with the deepening trough will be
pulled through the forecast area sometime next weekend regardless
of the exact track of the shortwave. However, precipitation
chances with this feature remain uncertain at this point.

-stalley

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 54 37 59 37 60 0 0 0 0 20
waco 55 35 61 35 60 0 0 0 0 30
paris 52 34 57 33 58 0 0 0 0 5
denton 54 32 59 34 60 0 0 0 0 10
mckinney 52 34 58 34 59 0 0 0 0 5
dallas 54 38 60 38 60 0 0 0 0 20
terrell 53 35 60 35 60 0 0 0 0 10
corsicana 53 39 58 38 59 10 0 0 0 20
temple 55 36 61 35 60 5 0 0 0 30
mineral wells 56 32 59 33 60 0 0 0 0 20

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX8 mi36 minN 710.00 miOvercast42°F30°F65%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW14N14N9N15N13N9N12N12N11N10N8N9N5N8N7N8N7N9N10N10N8N7N7
1 day agoSE5S8S9S14S12S12S14S9SE8SE7SE8S8S10S8SE7S6NW6NW15
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2 days agoS4SE5S9S8S11S10S10S11S7S7S7S8S6S4S4S6S7S7S8SE6SE6SE4SE6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.