Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Bellmead, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:20PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:08 AM CST (07:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 8:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bellmead, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.1     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 200514 aac
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1114 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019

06z tafs
low CIGS will continue to plague the area TAF sites for a few more
hours, but the threat for -ra or -dz is quickly coming to an end
as drier air is working down to under 850 mb. The primary shield
of low clouds associated with the 850 mb trough axis will be
sweeping through the i-35 corridor around 07-08z, but additional
moisture remains entrenched near the surface well to the west.

Evening guidance remains uncertain with how to handle this shallow
moist layer, but given how expansive it is on nighttime
microphysics rgb imagery, it seems unlikely CIGS will abruptly
improve. We'll continue to carry MVFR and ifr CIGS in the tafs
through 12-14z, at which point conditions should markedly improve
with the return ofVFR. If this low cloud cover ends up
dissipating earlier than currently advertised, the potential for
vsby reductions due to br fg would increase.

Mid to high cloud cover will stream overhead through the day on
Wednesday as surface winds veer out of the west and eventually
return to the southeast during the late-afternoon and evening
hours. Winds from 250-270 degrees will occur during the morning
and early-afternoon, but speeds under 12 kts will preclude any
crosswind issues on N S runways. Moisture will slosh back
northward on Wednesday night Thursday morning but no precipitation
is expected through the dfw 30-hour taf.


Update issued 947 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
quick update to remove the mention of thunder from the rest of the
overnight grids and to trim pops back based on latest radar and
satellite trends.

Mid-evening water vapor loops show the mid-level dryslot has
blasted through our entire CWA which has shunted the reservoir of
deepest moisture off to our east. Recent acars soundings show that
we're still saturated up to about 800 mb, and this is probably
just deep enough to support some episodic bouts of drizzle as the
last shortwave vort MAX (seen on water vapor loops impinging on
the i-35 corridor) pivots through the region. With the loss of
deeper moisture, the steeper lapse rate plume above 700 mb should
be out of reach, so the risk for thunder is rapidly diminishing
across our eastern-most counties. Sub-freezing surface
temperatures will lag far enough behind this last shortwave to
preclude any issues with patchy freezing drizzle in our western
and southwestern counties overnight.

While we may see some 1-3 mile visibilities in any heavier
drizzle, don't envision widespread dense fog issues overnight with
additional high-level moisture streaming overhead after midnight
and decent westerly flow in place just off the surface. We'll keep
a close eye on observations, however. Updated products have been


Short term issued 342 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift steadily eastward
through the evening as the upper trough axis swings through the
region. We will maintain the highest pops across the eastern
zones, mainly though mid evening. All precipitation will end
overnight with increasing large scale subsidence on the backside
of the departing system. Although drier air will work in from the
northwest, clouds will be slow to clear due to the depth of the
moisture. Therefore, dense fog formation is unlikely even though
the ground will remain near saturation and wind will be fairly
light. The clouds will also keep temperatures from falling rapidly
so overnight lows should remain in the 30s.


Long term issued 342 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
Wednesday through the weekend
the main concern in the extended forecast will be the potential
for thunderstorms, mainly across central and east texas.

Otherwise, expect generally temperate conditions across the

Dry northwest flow will continue to overspread much of the region
on Wednesday morning which should erode the pesky deck of stratus
that has been in place. NAM forecast soundings do hint at the
potential for some patchy drizzle fog in the morning hours, but at
this time, the potential looks low with west flow expected.

Wednesday should be rain-free and low clouds will be shunted
eastward. It won't be nearly as cool with west winds helping to
promote some downsloping. A dense cirrus canopy will stream in
from the southwest which will result in partly sunny skies for
most of the area.

Return flow should establish itself as upper level troughing
induces lee-side cyclogenesis to the northwest late Wednesday and
into Thursday. At this time, most of the pre-dawn hours on
Thursday should remain rain-free, but that will likely change very
quickly after sunrise. Isentropic ascent should ramp up quickly
and with steepening lapse rates (nearly 7-8 c km), there will be a
risk for some elevated thunderstorms. With the deep layer wind
shear magnitudes on the order of 30 knots, there could be a window
elevated storms capable of hail. We'll monitor this potential
over the next 12-24 hours.

Warm air advection will increase even more on Friday, which
should yield additional chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms. I've undercut blended guidance rain chances a
little as most of the strong forcing for ascent should still
remain west of the area, but given the strong WAA and steep lapse
rates, a 50-60 pop across at least the eastern 2 3rds of the area
seems appropriate. The severe weather potential isn't great on
Friday as instability may still remain on the marginal side. If
instability values are a little higher than currently believed,
the risk will increase.

Saturday features the best chances for showers and thunderstorms
as a sharp pacific frontal feature slides eastward. Model guidance
has converged some on the position of an upper level low and this
yields slightly greater confidence in the positioning of the
aformentioned frontal feature. At this time, it appears that the
upper trough will eject quicker to the east than previous model
iterations and this casts some doubt on the severe weather
potential. I'll hold on to pops across the entire area, but if
these trends continue, we may be able to remove rain chances for
the big country all together on Saturday. Low level moisture will
stream northward after a couple of days of good southerly flow.

And this should boost instability values into the 1000-1200 j kg
range. With a very dynamic upper trough, deep layer shear values
will easily exceed 30 knots and the combination of the
aformentioned instability will promote organized convective modes.

There are a couple of caveats that preclude "sounding the alarm"
right now. 1) a faster frontal timing would mean that convection
would possibly fire at a less than ideal time of day for north and
central texas (smaller amounts of surface based instability). 2)
the widespread cloud cover and possibly early day convection (due
to a strong cap) could hamper afternoon storm development and or
diminish instability necessary for severe storms. While it is a
little too early to nail down the specifics surrounding the
thermodynamic environment currently, it is likely that these
details will be ironed out in later forecasts.

Behind the front, there should be decent west winds and with a
greater degree of vertical mixing, temperatures should easily
climb into the mid to upper 60s with low relative humidity.

Depending on the areal coverage of rainfall over the next several
days, a slightly elevated fire weather threat may materialize.

Sunday will be a little cooler as we lose some of the downsloping,
but conditions look to still remain seasonal. Low rain chances
re-enter the forecast next week as return flow establishes itself
across the region.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 34 56 40 56 45 10 0 5 10 20
waco 33 59 37 56 46 60 0 5 20 30
paris 34 51 36 54 42 100 0 5 20 20
denton 31 55 36 56 43 10 0 5 10 10
mckinney 32 53 36 55 43 20 0 5 20 20
dallas 36 56 40 56 45 40 0 5 10 20
terrell 35 54 38 55 44 100 0 5 20 20
corsicana 36 57 41 55 47 80 0 5 30 30
temple 34 60 39 56 47 20 0 5 20 30
mineral wells 31 57 37 57 44 10 0 5 5 10

Fwd watches warnings advisories

90 26

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX8 mi78 minNNW 77.00 miOvercast40°F37°F93%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
1 day agoN6N5CalmN6N8N9N10N12NE15N12N13NE14NE13N13NE15
2 days agoCalmCalmN4N8N13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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