Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waco, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:18PM Sunday February 17, 2019 9:00 PM CST (03:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:15PMMoonset 5:33AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waco, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 172333
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
533 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Aviation
00z tafs
high pressure will continue to build into the region overnight
with northerly flow around 10 kt. Winds will gradually become a
little more easterly through the day Monday, otherwise, high
clouds will continue to stream across the region.VFR CIGS around
20,000 ft will prevail through the period.

Dunn

Short term issued 210 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
tonight
a tranquil night is expected across north and central texas as
dry air invades from the north. Intermittent bands of cirrus will
stream in overhead, but mostly clear skies should prevail for most
locales. Surface flow will remain northerly which should equate
to persistent cold air advection. Guidance offers varying
solutions on just how cold it will get, but with modest breezes in
the surface-925mb layer, radiational cooling processes may be
hindered. Regardless, temperatures should range between the
mid upper 20s along the red river to low to mid 30s elsewhere. A
repeat of dense fog appears unlikely given the dry air advection
and slightly perturbed pbl flow. A denser deck of mid and upper
level cloud cover may attempt to lift northward as southwesterly
700mb flow appears to strengthen.

Bain

Long term issued 210 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
Monday to next weekend
main focus of the extended will be multiple rounds of potential
rainfall and thunderstorms across our region, primarily on Tuesday
and then again Thursday through Saturday. For the second period of
rainfall, there are many details to be determined over the coming
days, and lower spatial predictability (at least for our local
purposes) of several synoptic-scale features precludes going "all
in" for any one day during the latter half of the week. More
details below.

Meanwhile, despite decreasing northeasterly winds on Monday,
reinvigorated upper-level jet ascent to our southwest should
promote a fairly dense plume of clouds around 25-35 kft. In other
words, we will trade slackening surface cold-air advection for a
notable reduction of insolation. The end result should be highs a
few degrees below those of today, perhaps struggling to reach 50
across most of north texas and the lower 50s across central
texas. With that said, lighter wind speeds should make for a
slightly more pleasant morning.

Upstream of the region, a northerly jet will advance around the
base of a deep western trough through Monday night, amplifying the
trough and shifting it eastward in the process. Height falls will
slowly overspread the region, inducing a fairly robust mass
response along a low-level warm front draped to our southeast.

Isentropic ascent atop our stubborn, cold surface air will likely
offer drizzle initially and then more notable rainfall to much of
our area, especially east of i-35, late Monday night into Tuesday.

Forecast soundings illustrate an adequate elevated mixed layer
atop focused warm advection (near 925-850mb) to produce parcel
buoyancy deep enough for a few storms on Tuesday. While
significant flooding issues are not anticipated, locally heavy
rain could offer a transient potential for minor flooding, and
this threat will have to be watched accordingly. Strong
convective-layer flow may also encourage some small hail, but
severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

As for winter weather, any late Monday Tuesday morning potential
across our northwest continues to look rather bleak due to
marginal surface temps so do not plan to re-introduce freezing
precipitation during this time period. As the shortwave trough
responsible for our b-e-a-utiful Tuesday ejects away from the
region, lingering low-level moisture, weakening winds, and subtle
southwesterly flow impulses may foster some fog and drizzle
Tuesday night, especially north of i-20. While temperatures will
be close to freezing west of us-281, they should be too marginal
for any surface impacts. Furthermore, most drizzle fog should be
relegated to times prior to when more earnest west northwesterly
cold advection commences (which is likely when temps would fall
below freezing). Thus, given the low potential for freezing
precip (and even lower potential for impacts), decided to remove
any freezing mention from the grids.

We should clear some and warm slightly on Wednesday (although with
lingering upper-level clouds), especially where a light downslope
wind component is expected towards the big country. A slow
warming trend continues through the end of the week, as a stale
cold-air reservoir to the northeast slowly retreats.

As for precipitation chances, areas east of i-35 hold the highest
potential for realizing rainfall Thursday into Saturday, given the
positioning of a sloped warm-front surface from south-central
texas to the sabine valley. An initial chance of rain, primarily
driven by mid upper jet processes, passes the region Thursday.

Quickly in its wake, a slightly more amplified sub-tropical
impulse will enhance isentropic ascent and related rain chances
once again on Friday. A few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible as well.

We are still monitoring the possibility of strong storms on
Saturday, in conjunction with the approach of a rather sharp mid-
level cyclone transiting near across north texas. Richer theta-e
air will slowly be replacing a cool, stable near-surface air mass
on Saturday, but the exact track of the mid-level system will
significantly influence boundary-layer thermodynamic evolution,
plus the amount of low-level convergence available for surface
parcels to achieve their respective lfcs ahead of veering flow.

And this track will be modulated by details (e.G., sub-tropical
atlantic ridge strength, lead impulse influences, etc.) that are
simply too unknown to offer much detail on any strong severe
potential. At present, the most likely area for any severe weather
should be east of north and central texas, but at least a few
strong storms seems within reason across our area. Stay tuned.

Picca

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 32 48 37 42 36 0 0 20 80 20
waco 35 51 39 45 38 0 0 30 90 20
paris 29 47 35 39 35 0 0 20 80 50
denton 29 46 35 41 33 0 0 20 80 20
mckinney 29 47 36 41 34 0 0 20 80 30
dallas 33 48 38 42 36 0 0 30 80 20
terrell 33 49 37 43 36 0 0 30 90 30
corsicana 36 52 38 43 38 0 0 30 90 30
temple 36 53 40 47 39 0 0 30 90 30
mineral wells 29 47 33 40 32 0 0 20 80 20

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX4 mi70 minN 810.00 miFair46°F32°F58%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S6NW6CalmCalmN4N8N13
G20
N15
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N14N11
G19
N14N15N12
G23
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N12N15N12N9N7N8NE7
1 day agoN21N10N13N12N14N11N12N13N12N10N12N11N7N6N7NW7NE44SE5E3E4SE8SE8SE6
2 days agoS11S10S9S8S8S7S6S5S6S4S53S8S7S7S8SW5NW8NW8N10N8N14N18
G26
N18
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.