Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waco, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:25 AM CST (09:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waco, TX
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location: 31.56, -97.19     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 150529
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1129 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Aviation
06z TAF cycle
calm winds have prevailed as surface pressure gradient eases
across north and central texas. Skies will remain clear through
the night, with only a few passing clouds tomorrow afternoon.

Winds are likely to regain a predominant directed out of the
southwest later this morning, but still remain below 5 kts. As
daytime mixing ensues, wind speeds will likely pick to around 10
kts in the afternoon, and a return of southerly winds is expected.

Vfr conditions are expected through this TAF cycle.

Hernandez

Update issued 906 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
radiational cooling is in full force with clear skies and light
winds across the region. A few locations have already dipped into
the upper 20s, and could still drop a few more degrees. The only
changes made to the forecast were to adjust for ongoing trends,
and decrease expected lows for some locations. All other weather
elements are on track.

Hernandez

Short term issued 353 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
tonight
temperatures will fall quickly again tonight as winds slacken (and
go nearly calm for a while) as high pressure begins to shift off
to the south and east of the region. Southwesterly surface winds
will return after midnight and will begin to transport some higher
dewpoints into the region. This will keep temperatures from
falling to the levels we saw earlier today, but most locales will
fall below freezing outside of the metroplex and our southwestern
counties. Some patchy frost will be possible as well.

Carlaw

Long term issued 353 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
Thursday through next Wednesday
our quiescent stretch of weather will continue through the end of
the week and into Saturday as broad, low-amplitude cyclonic flow
develops across most of the conus. A notable warming trend will
occur during this period as southwesterly flow begins to deepen
across north and central texas. Highs on Thursday will jump into
the low to mid 60s west of i-35 (low-mid 50s will hang on across
our far eastern counties), and then into the mid and upper 60s on
Friday and Saturday (which is near-normal for this time of year).

Our attention will then be turning to another cold front, which
may be pushing into our far northwestern counties by early
Saturday evening. This front should initially push into our
forecast area without much in the way of precipitation, although
some patchy drizzle may be possible across our northwest in the
post-frontal airmass as the saturated layer increases past 850
mb. Thankfully, the airmass behind this next front doesn't look as
cold as the front which roared through the region on Monday, and
no sub-freezing temperatures are anticipated before precipitation
chances come to an end.

As this front continues to press eastward overnight Saturday and
into Sunday, it will encounter somewhat greater low-level
moisture. Moisture depth appears sufficient to warrant some 20-30%
pops with cold frontal passage Saturday night, with somewhat
higher values Sunday morning and afternoon east of i-35 as the
front pushes through our area. Instability appears too low to
warrant an inclusion of a thunder mention at this juncture. High
temperatures on Sunday will be steady or slowly fall under the
influence of low-level cold advection. Lows Sunday night and into
Monday will range from the lower 40s across central texas to the
lower 30s near the red river.

While the surface front will make it all the way to the gulf on
Monday, modest warm advection isentropic upglide will continue
across our central texas counties where we'll hold onto some low
(20%) pops. Some of this activity may attempt to build northward
towards the i-20 corridor on Tuesday, but any coverage is expected
to remain quite low at this time.

The weather during the extended reaches of this forecast remains
unclear, as the sensible weather impacts here will rely a great
deal on what happens with digging shortwave energy across the
pacific early next week. Every now and then, global guidance
hints at the development of a substantial cutoff upper-low out
near 150w on Tuesday, which ultimately slows the progression of
another shortwave which will be drifting across the southwest us
and into texas. The 12z GFS offered up one of these solutions.

However, most guidance like the ECMWF and experimental fv3 have
maintained more stable run-to-run consistency and maintain a
faster overall progression. We've leaned more heavily on these
quicker solutions, indicating increasing rain chances on
Wednesday and Wednesday night as this system zips across texas.

Cooler mid-level temperatures will result in steeper mid-level
lapse rates and better available buoyancy to warrant an isolated
thunder mention across the region during this timeframe.

Carlaw

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 33 60 41 67 44 0 0 0 0 0
waco 30 61 41 67 44 0 0 0 0 0
paris 26 53 36 63 42 0 0 0 0 0
denton 28 61 40 68 44 0 0 0 0 0
mckinney 27 57 39 65 44 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 34 60 42 67 45 0 0 0 0 0
terrell 28 58 39 67 44 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 31 57 40 65 44 0 0 0 0 0
temple 31 62 40 67 43 0 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 30 63 39 67 41 0 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Waco, Waco Regional Airport, TX4 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from ACT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4W5W5NW7NW6N46NW4N5N8NW6N11N6NE3E3SE3SE4S3CalmW3W4W4Calm
1 day agoN17
G25
N16
G23
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N14
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N13N8N7NW6NW7NW6NW5NW4NW7NW6NW6
2 days agoN6N8N9N9N12
G19
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G27
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G32
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G26
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N18
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NW15
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G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Texas
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.