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FXUS64 KSHV 070115 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 815 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Widely scattered convection is finally beginning to develop across the region, in advance of a weak shortwave trough noted over E TX.
Some erosion/lifting of the morning stratus field has yielded strong insolation and an unstable air mass areawide, characteristic of SBCapes near or in excess of 3000 J/kg. Thus, additional scattered convection development is expected to continue through early evening, as this parent shortwave shifts NE through Srn AR/N LA before exiting. Some additional convection may linger a little longer though across SE OK/adjacent sections of SW AR, as a SWrly LLJ intensifies to 40-50kts along a low level theta-e axis ahead of the strongly negative tilt upper trough as it pivots through Cntrl and Ern OK into the Ozarks. Very strong forcing/instability along the Ewd advancing dryline will eventually lead to the development of multiple supercells over Wrn and Cntrl OK later this afternoon into the evening, which may consolidate into a linear line as it quickly advances ENE through Ern OK into the Ozarks overnight. Some of the latest CAMs continue to suggest that this line may near Nrn McCurtain County OK and the adjacent Nrn SW AR counties between 08-10Z, but will likely quickly weaken as the best forcing aloft shunts NE away from the area with the ejecting trough. Did place low to mid chance pops over this area for the expected decaying convection, which may be sustained by the SWrly LLJ and any residual instability remaining.

Hot, humid, and quiet conditions should return Tuesday, with mostly dry conditions expected as what's left of any mesoscale bndrys from the decaying morning convection eventually washing out with the onset of mixing. The sfc dry line is progged to mix E into SE OK, NW AR into or just E of the Ozarks during the afternoon, with some slightly drier air eventually mixing into SE OK/adjacent SW AR. What's left of this bndry should quickly begin to lift back N/wash out by Tuesday night, although it could still focus isolated convection overnight over SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR especially with the onset of the SWrly LLJ. Deep lyr moisture is not expected to remain shallow, with no discernible perturbations progged in the SW flow before eventually reloading S of the closed low that is progged to spin over the Midwest.

15

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The aforementioned closed low is progged to send a weak cold front SE into the Srn Plains Wednesday, as it nears extreme NW AR into SE OK/N TX by late afternoon. The GFS/ECMWF suggest that a developing perturbation in the SW flow will help yield scattered convection development by mid and late afternoon from NE TX into SE OK/SW AR near and ahead of the front, coincident of very strong instability that will develop as sfc temps near/exceed 90 degrees.
H700-500 lapse rates are progged to be steep, ranging from 7.5-8.0 C/km, thus promoting very strong updraft growth within a zone of strong deep lyr shear. Thus, pending the strength of the perturbation in the SW flow, severe thunderstorms appear likely over these areas, where an Enhanced Risk has been outlined by SPC in the Day 3 Outlook. This convection should persist into the evening before shifting NE, with the attendant cold front drifting S into E TX/N LA by daybreak Thursday. Depending on whether the front temporarily stalls along/just S of the I-20 corridor Thursday or not, it appears that scattered convection will redevelop near the bndry which could again flare up/become severe, before finally shifting S of the area Thursday night.

Did highlight this area with mid/high chance pops Thursday afternoon/evening, before cooler and slightly drier air begins to spill S in wake of the cold fropa. The latest ensemble guidance suggests that mostly dry conditions will prevail Friday through most of the upcoming weekend, with near normal temps expected through the period. Some of the deterministic guidance do suggest that some weak perturbations may help enhance some convection development this weekend, although refinements to the forecast are likely in the coming days.

15

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

For 07/00z TAFS....Low cigs and reduced flight categories will move into the region overnight and hold through mid morning. Can't rule out possible showers, and maybe a thunderstorm at KTXK, as short-term progs are bringing a decaying line of convection into that area around daybreak. Otherwise, should see VFR conditions with scattered CU by the end of the period. Also, can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm with daytime heating. Expect winds to pick up from the south to between 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. /20/



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 89 74 91 / 10 0 0 20 MLU 72 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 10 DEQ 69 86 65 86 / 40 20 20 50 TXK 73 88 72 90 / 20 10 10 50 ELD 71 87 70 90 / 10 10 10 20 TYR 73 88 73 90 / 10 0 0 30 GGG 73 88 72 90 / 10 0 0 30 LFK 73 89 72 91 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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