Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nacogdoches, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:41PM Friday October 20, 2017 11:18 AM CDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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location: 31.61, -94.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 201159 aaa
afdshv
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service shreveport la
659 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions will persist through much of the 12z TAF period,
although extensive areas of ac and cirrus will continue to
overspread the region along and ahead of a shortwave trough over
ecntrl tx that will slowly eject NE across the region today. This
will result in sct areas of -shra affecting portions of E tx SE ok
through much of the day before diminishing during the afternoon.

Should see CIGS lower to 4-5kft later this afternoon over E tx,
with the CU cigs expected to gradually nudge ene into wrn
la extreme SW ar after 00z Saturday. MVFR CIGS should develop
after 06z over E tx, and possibly by the end of the TAF period
over N la. Ifr CIGS may even develop after 09z over deep e
tx cntrl la, affecting the lfk terminal. These low CIGS will
continue to spread N across the remainder of the region after 12z
Saturday, but will gradually lift becomeVFR by midday early
afternoon. SE winds 6-11kts today will only diminish slightly to
4-10kts after 00z. 15

Prev discussion issued 428 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
discussion...

moisture return continues in earnest this morning as dew points
range through the 50s from south to north, but low clouds are
still noticeably absent. Pockets of light rain showers are seen
on the shv radar drifting northward across parts of east texas,
and this rain is falling out of a mid deck around 10kft. This
activity is being driven by mid and upper level energy pivoting
northeastward with a shortwave over southeast texas. This feature
will continue to lift across the region later today with chances
for showers and isolated thunderstorms expanding farther north
and east. Most locations will likely remain dry with the best
chances for rainfall across east texas where high temperatures
should be held down into the upper 70s due to the excessive cloud
cover and scattered rainfall. The remainder of the region will
continue to hover around the 80 degree mark once again for
afternoon highs. Warm and muggy conditions are expected overnight
with lows only dropping off into the mid to upper 60s by Saturday
morning.

By this time, moisture surge will really begin to accelerate as
dew points climb well into the 60s and even the lower 70s with
isolated to widely scattered convection developing throughout
Saturday. As we move later into the evening, our focus quickly
turns to the strong cold front bearing down on our region from
the northwest as the longwave trough spills out of the rockies
across the plains. This open trough is expected to close off at
some point but prior to that, expect a strong line of convection
to develop along the cold front as it advances east of the i-35
corridor into eastern oklahoma and north central texas Saturday
evening. As we approach midnight, the line of thunderstorms will
begin encroaching on our northwest zones with a severe potential
in play. The extent of severe weather will depend on instability
which should begin to wane somewhat through early Sunday morning.

The current thinking remains a squall line is likely to develop
and pose a damaging wind threat with embedded bow echoes possible
along the line. Otherwise, the threat appears to be quite minimal
as it relates to large hail and isolated tornadoes with SPC only
including our extreme northwest zones in its day 2 slight risk.

The line of storms should continue to weaken through the rest of
Sunday morning as conditions become less favorable for sustaining
any severe storms. Thus, the reward does look to outweigh the risk
in the form of beneficial rainfall that is desperately needed over
all of the region. We continue to advertise 1-2 inches on average
for the area through Sunday night with the front clearing the cwa
by that time.

Behind the cold front, expect noticeably cooler and drier air mass
to prevail through much of next week with a reinforcing shot of
cooler air by mid week with a dry canadian front dropping south
and clipping our region. Temperatures should begin to moderate by
late next week as weak upper ridge builds in behind the departing
longwave trough. In general, expect near normal to slightly below
normal temperatures for the last full week of october with rain
chances holding off until next Friday with the next major cold
front shifting south into the region.

19

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 81 68 84 70 30 20 40 70
mlu 82 65 84 70 10 20 40 60
deq 79 63 81 64 20 20 40 90
txk 79 65 82 66 20 20 40 90
eld 80 65 82 69 10 20 40 70
tyr 78 67 83 65 60 30 40 80
ggg 79 66 84 67 50 30 40 80
lfk 78 68 84 71 60 30 40 60

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

15 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nacogdoches, A L Mangham Jr. Regional Airport, TX4 mi23 minESE 910.00 miFair71°F64°F81%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from OCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5E745E8SE8SE7E4E4CalmCalmE4CalmCalmSE3E3E7--E5E9E10SE9E12E9
1 day agoSW9CalmCalmSE5S84E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4E4
2 days agoE4N7454NE6CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.