Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nacogdoches, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:52PM Friday April 20, 2018 10:40 PM CDT (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:35AMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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location: 31.61, -94.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 210310
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
1010 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018

Discussion
Have made a few changes to the forecast including adjustments to
the cloud cover overnight and surface winds. No other significant
changes made to the forecast. Upper ridge axis has shifted east
of the four state region and the large surface high pressure
system center has shifted into the great lakes region. The
surface winds will be increasing slowly from light and variable or
light east to southeast 5-10 mph with slightly higher speeds into
parts of east and northeast texas around the back side of the
surface high. The flow aloft will continue to become southwest
as the upper closed low just east of the four corners region
advances to the east. An associated surface low will be moving
into west texas with a warm front reaching to the southeast into
the western gulf of mexico as the surface low winds up the
pressure gradient will increase the wind speeds across east and
northeast texas on Saturday with moisture increasing in the lower
levels resulting in increasing low level cloud cover to go along
with the higher level cloud cover. Showers and thunderstorms will
be increasing from west to east over the forecast area during the
day Saturday. 06

Prev discussion issued 650 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail through tonight. However, low clouds
will return to northeast texas late tonight, with MVFR ceilings
develop by 15z. Scattered showers will start to develop by 18z,
possibly affecting the east texas TAF sites before spreading into
northwest louisiana by 21z. Expect a line of thunderstorms to
develop along a cold front over central texas, possibly affecting
ktyr by 21z and kggg and klfk by 22z. Expect ifr ceilings to
develop with the line of thunderstorms. 28
discussion... Issued 533 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
sent correction to repair the bad data that affected the values
in the text forecast products and ndfd graphics. 06
prev discussion... Issued 313 pm cdt Fri apr 20 2018
benign weather occurring late this aftn as cirrus clouds have
thinned and or shifted east of the four-state region late this
aftn, giving way to mostly clear skies. Despite plentiful
insolation, temps remain below normal 60s due to the influence
of the nearby sfc ridge. Attention will quickly turn to a closed
ua low noted across the four-corners region late this aftn that is
progged to continue its eastward propagation to across the south
plains by tonight, thus leading to 500 mb height falls. Progged
model soundings indicated the return of mid-upper level cloudiness
enveloping the region after midnight tonight but despite the
cloud cover, overnight temps will still manage to fall into the
40s and 50s due to the sfc albeit with a fleeting grip. At
daybreak, the sfc ridge will be exiting the region and sfc
troughing will follow on its heels hence causing sfc winds to veer
to southeast. This will aid in promoting the gradual return of
low level moisture a weak warm front as indicated by pwats of
1.00-1.50 inches initially across southeast ok, east tx and deep
east tx. Model solutions are in pretty good agreement in showing
light precip impinging on the aforementioned areas late tomorrow
morning early aftn as a 500 mb 50+ kt jet MAX ejects from the base
of the ua low. Extensive cloudiness will temper daytime
destabilization and by late aftn, precip will continue to shift
eastward to across the remainder of the fa whilst the warm front
struggles to make a northward jog to near northern la
east northeast tx and close to southwest ar. It will be of great
importance to know the exact position of the warm front because if
some clearing can occur and a bit more daytime destabilization
can become realized, it will be within this limited warm sector
that strong to severe storms will be possible as plentiful 0-6 km
bulk shear will exist hail and gusty winds the main threats .

Tomorrow evening-night as the ua low nears the four-state region,
a cold front will commence to impact the region from northwest to
southeast, but its slow movement and a slight pwat improvement
will raise concern for a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. The
weather prediction is holding steady in showing widespread 1-3
inch rainfall amounts. It is noteworthy to mention that although 3
inches is moderately high, the last beneficial rainfall event
took place exactly one week ago, which is more than enough time
for soils to recuperate and thus be able to handle several inches
of rainfall keep in mind low-lying or poor drainage roadways may
still be prone to flood.

By late tomorrow night early Sunday morning, dry-slotting will take
shape from west to east and will therefore see rainfall diminish
also from west to east. Only exception may be lingering wrap-
around precip that will affect portions of southwest ar and
north northeast la through Monday aftn before the ua low finally
pushes east-northeastward towards the appalachians. Dry northwest
flow aloft will ensue on Tuesday but on Wednesday a shortwave
trough staying north of the region will send down a cold front
either Wednesday morning or aftn time discrepancies still exist
amongst long term models and adequate frontogenetical forcing may
exist to generate showers and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms. Thereafter depending on which model is of
preference, region will either have a glancing blow from a
shortwave trough just to our east, but it will still promote a
fropa with light precip on Friday, or a longwave trough will
progress across the region causing scattered precip to develop
along the fropa. Will elect to insert low end chance pops area-
wide Thursday night attm, as confidence is not high enough to go
much above that for now.

Daytime temps tomorrow will be tricky as some clearing could occur
across parts of the region. With that said, will see a range of
middle to upper 60s west to lower to middle 70s east. By Tuesday it
will be in the 70s cwa-wide as CIGS scatter out. 29

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 51 72 58 69 0 60 90 30
mlu 48 75 61 74 0 20 90 60
deq 49 66 52 68 10 90 90 30
txk 49 68 53 67 0 70 90 30
eld 48 73 58 71 0 30 90 60
tyr 51 65 52 68 10 80 90 10
ggg 50 68 54 68 0 70 90 20
lfk 53 73 59 72 0 50 90 10

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

06 28 29


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nacogdoches, A L Mangham Jr. Regional Airport, TX4 mi44 minESE 510.00 mi54°F48°F80%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from OCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4E6E9E7E33NE5NE5E5E8E8E9SE10
G14
SE75E7SE7NE7E9SE8CalmE3E5
1 day agoNW5N5N5NW3NW3N7N5N5N3CalmN5N8
G14
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G17
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2 days agoS10
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S7
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G14
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SW6W4SW8SW7CalmCalmSW43N3CalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.