Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nacogdoches, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 4:18 PM CDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 11:53PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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location: 31.61, -94.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 182034
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
334 pm cdt Mon jun 18 2018

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
outflow boundary that came northward from the coast early this
morning is currently across sc ar this afternoon and has squashed
a lot of the heating, instability across the northern half of la
and as a result, convection has wained a bit. Further to the south
and west, this is not the case as scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms have been developing and this should continue to be
the case through the early evening hours, more so across the lower
toledo bend and sam rayburn country of deep east texas. This all
due in part to an elongated area of low pressure aloft which was
oriented southwest to northeast along the lower and upper texas
gulf coast. This feature is forecast to move a little further
inland overnight into the day Tuesday across SE central and
eastern texas into NW la and SW ar. This should result in slightly
higher coverage of showers with embedded thunderstorms across our
southwest half during the day Tuesday and have thus beefed pops
upwards accordingly. The cloud cover and increased rain chances
will also help to hold temperatures down somewhat on Tuesday with
daytime highs struggling to hit 90 degrees across most areas.

This weakness aloft will morph into an inverted trough of low
pressure late Tuesday into Tuesday night and will pretty much
remain anchored across our region through at least early
Wednesday. Given the tropical-like airmass in place with pwats
near 1.7 inches, you add a little heating and we should at least
see high scattered pop coverage across most of the region into
Wednesday.

13
long term... Wednesday through Monday night
as midweek arrives apparently so will more of the tropical moisture
out of the western gulf. Some of this tropical connection of higher
pwats will be drawn northeastward with the approach of an upper
trough in the westerlies. The GFS and ECMWF agree on a surface
1021mb high pushing off the front range under the mid level trough
that will be edging out into the plains states. The surface high
soon melts away, but the upper trough spins up into a closed low
over nb on both models around 5750dam. This low continues to deepen
over kn by early Thursday and bottoms out at 5710dam while the ecmwf
only at 5740dam.

Either way, on paper the system looks occluded with a negative tilt,
but with the surface high gone and for this event at this time of
year it will mean a gathering of the tropical moisture for us
especially through late week. The wpc day 4 and 5 QPF are the most
helpful days, but the overall 5 day total has some 2 to 3 inches
possible from E tx into SW ar. For days 6 and 7 we zero out as the
low will lift away into the great lakes by late Friday and this will
essentially push the deeper moisture out of reach for us this
weekend. This will allow the bermuda high aloft to bridge back
toward the mexican upper high late in the period. So it will be back
to hot and dry pretty quick, but a nice reprieve of lower than
average highs will remain possible at least for the mid to late week
time frame.

24

Prev discussion issued 1207 pm cdt Mon jun 18 2018
aviation...

scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
affect our airspace through the TAF period as we remain under a
moist atmosphere and disturbances will continue to rotate our way
from the south and southeast around the weakness in the west
central gulf of mexico. Prevailed vcts across all terminals this
afternoon with tempo groups for lower ceilings, vsbys and stronger
wind gusts associated with these bands of convection as they move
north and west. There should be a downturn in storm coverage and
intensity after 00z this evening as has been the case the last
several days but will need to watch for showers perhaps moving
back northward from the SE tx SW la coast overnight perhaps in the
vicinity of the lfk terminal after 06z. Otherwise, reintroduced
MVFR ceilings once again at most locations near or beyond 19 15z
timeframe.

Look for southeast winds sustained near 10kts with higher gusts
upwards of 20kts across our NE tx terminal locations through the
afternoon hours today. These winds will decouple slightly
overnight with the stronger winds remaining at the lfk terminal
overnight.

13

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 74 88 73 88 30 40 30 50
mlu 73 89 73 90 20 40 30 50
deq 70 87 70 87 20 40 30 30
txk 71 87 72 86 20 40 30 50
eld 71 88 71 88 20 40 30 50
tyr 73 86 73 86 30 50 40 50
ggg 73 85 73 86 30 50 40 50
lfk 73 87 73 87 60 70 50 50

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

13 24 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nacogdoches, A L Mangham Jr. Regional Airport, TX4 mi22 minSE 14 G 2110.00 mi82°F73°F77%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from OCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7E10E8E7E7SE6SE7SE4E6E4SE6E6E5E7E9SE13
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1 day agoSE8SE13
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2 days agoSE8SE10SE6SE5SE7SE5SE4SE4S4CalmSE3E4CalmSE4CalmS3SE6S9SE8SE46SE11
G17
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.