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FXUS64 KSHV 261151 AAA AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 651 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The weather story and hazard outlooks remain largely unchanged from recent forecasts as of this writing. As a series of upper level lows eject east from the Intermountain West and veer along a northeasterly track up the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes, this persistent unsettled pattern will result in several days worth of showers and storms bringing rainfall to much of the ArkLaTex, and some chances of severe weather, particularly to our northwestern half.

Showers have already begun to move into our southeastern Oklahoma zones as of the 08Z hour, and will increase in coverage and intensity while gradually trekking south and east after daybreak today. Showers and storms will impact all but the southeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex through this afternoon, receding in coverage back to the north of the I-30 corridor overnight into Saturday.

The severe weather outlook today remains much the same as previous iterations, with a Slight Risk covering our northwestern zones from Tyler up to Texarkana and along I-30, extending just far enough south to clip the northwestern corner of Louisiana. The chief modes of severe weather expected will be damaging wind and especially large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out entirely.
Simultaneously, these same zones are included in a slight risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, particularly in areas of training torrential rainfall. 1-2 inches of accumulation today look easily possible, particularly north of I-30.

Today's highs will range from the middle 70s northwest to middle 80s southeast, followed by a night of lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and a warmer Saturday as more sites reach the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday continues to look like the "in-between" day of this stretch, where we will not see a defined line of storms associated with one of the aforementioned lows move into the region.
Nevertheless, conditions will remain ripe for renewed showers and storms across the northern half of the Four State Region through the course of the day, accompanied by a Marginal Risk for severe weather and a sliver of Slight Risk on our northwestern corner, accompanied by a similar distribution of ERO risks. All modes of severe weather will again be possible, but at reduced confidence compared to Friday and Sunday.

/26/

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

During the day Saturday and into Saturday night, the second of the upper level lows will begin to make its northeastward journey up the Plains, swinging its frontal boundary and attendant convection into the ArkLaTex. There is little in the way of a defined break between Saturday's showers and storms and Sunday's convection, thus it remains to be seen how worked over the environment may be ahead of the arrival of Sunday's storms. That being said, the outlook continues to highlight a sizable swath encompassing the northwestern two-thirds of the region in a Slight Risk for Sunday into Sunday night. All modes of severe weather are being considered likely, with emphasis once again on damaging winds and large hail.

The third straight day of severe weather impacts will indeed also be the third straight day of flash flooding impacts. By the time all is said and done, storm total accumulations look to range from 1-2 inches in north central Louisiana to as high as 4+ inches in extreme southeast Oklahoma. Given the recent substantial flooding event across the region, and with many area waterways still quite full, a return to flood stages cloud be quickly achieved, and this potential hazard necessitates as much vigilance as the severe threat.

After the upper level low departs and synoptic flow becomes more zonal, conditions will remain unsettled into next week, as southerly flow funnels continued moisture and showers and storms remain possible through the end of this extended forecast period.
Temperatures will be mitigated somewhat by the ongoing rainfall but will remain warm in the low to mid 80s throughout, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

/26/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

MVFR cigs are widespread this morning, except for some breaks noted over portions of NCntrl LA/SCntrl AR. However, these should fill in by mid-morning, before eventually lifting/becoming VFR by midday/early afternoon. A line of convection which has developed early this morning over Cntrl/Ern OK will continue to lift ENE through mid-morning while gradually weakening, although some Swd backbuilding will be possible over ECntrl TX and could affect the TYR/GGG terminals by midday and through the afternoon. Have maintained VCTS for the afternoon here, as well as TXK as this convection should continue to develop farther ENE through the day, while possibly affecting SHV for a brief period late in the afternoon/early evening. This convection should diminish by early to mid evening, with MVFR cigs redeveloping over Deep E TX/Cntrl LA by mid evening, and quickly spreading N across much of the region by/after 06Z Saturday. These cigs will persist through much of the morning Saturday, before lifting/becoming VFR by late morning/midday. S winds will increase by mid-morning to 12-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts through the afternoon. Look for winds to diminish slightly to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts after 00Z.
/15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 72 88 71 / 20 30 10 10 MLU 85 69 87 67 / 0 20 10 0 DEQ 76 65 81 65 / 80 40 60 40 TXK 81 70 85 69 / 50 40 40 20 ELD 83 66 86 66 / 20 30 20 10 TYR 80 70 85 70 / 70 30 20 30 GGG 82 70 86 70 / 50 30 20 20 LFK 84 70 87 70 / 30 20 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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