Tuesday, February20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nacogdoches, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 6:11PM Tuesday February 20, 2018 9:46 AM CST (15:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:54AMMoonset 10:54PM Illumination 28% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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location: 31.61, -94.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 201134
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
534 am cst Tue feb 20 2018

Aviation
LowVFR to ocnl MVFR CIGS across area with a few shra in the ktxk
terminal area. Elsewhere, most CIGS to rise toVFR by 20 15-18z
with south winds 10 to 15 kts and gusty increasing to around 15 to
25 kts this aftn, and may continue thru 21 03z before gradually
diminishing. Unstable airmass may yield scattered convection in
aftn, especially across SE ok SW ar. However, more widespread
convection associated with cold front arriving around 21 06z at
ktyr, kggg, and ktxk. This front will move across most of area,
but possibly not thru kmlu terminal, by 21 12z. N-ne winds will
increase to around 10 kts by 21 12z, with CIGS into MVFR and
possible ifr, with heavy rainfall possible. 07

Prev discussion issued 358 am cst Tue feb 20 2018
discussion...

A period of moderate to heavy rainfall for portions of the four-
state region remains the focus for this forecast package...

a northwest pacific ua low has moved onshore and has progressed
eastward to near the central southern rockies early this morning,
though it has sheared out a bit. With ua ridging across the
southeast conus, the four-state region has been experiencing
sharpening southwest flow aloft. Breezy and gusty southerly winds
persisted at the sfc and though at times wind speeds have dropped to
below lake wind advisory criteria, it will be short-lived as a
tightened pressure gradient will return later this morning. As
such, have elected to extend the lake wind advisory through 6 pm
cst this evening. The southerly sfc flow has not only promoted a
rather mild start to the morning temps in the 60s and 70s per
10z , but it will also encourage rich gulf moisture to continually
envelope the region. Pwats have ranged from 1.00-1.50 inches this
morning, with the highest moisture content noted across portions
of northeast tx, southeast ok and southwest ar. Weak embedded
disturbances within the flow aloft shifting across the aforementioned
areas coupled with a high moisture content, makes it no wonder
that isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have
ensued mainly near north of the i-30 corridor. Rainfall is light
but roadways may be wet thus could result in slick roadways.

Late this morning early this aftn, the ua trough will continue to
shear out whilst lifting northeastward to across the high plains.

Its associated cold front will be nearing southeast ok and
extreme northeast tx and is expected to impinge the said areas by
this evening. Concurrently, pwats will increase further to
between 1.15-1.80 inches and computer models continue to hint at
the cold front being a focus for linear showers and thunderstorms.

By early this evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms will
have developed and stretch from north central tx to across extreme
northeast tx, southeast ok and portions of southwest ar. The
rather moist atmospheric profile and the anticipated slow movement
of the cold front may result in training precip thus posing a
risk for flash flooding as moderate to heavy rainfall takes place.

Tonight into tomorrow morning, the moderate to heavy rainfall
will commence to expand spread to additional portions of northeast
tx, east tx and southwest ar and into northwest la. As the front
gradually shifts southeastward across the CWA tomorrow aftn-early
Thursday morning, so will the moderate to heavy precip. By
Thursday mid-morning the best large scale ascent will be fleeting
and as such, should see rainfall amounts lighten up. The cold
front is exhibited to not quite clear the fa and in fact will
return as a warm front on Thursday causing pwats to remain
relatively high, though precip will gradually shift northward with
the warm front with best pops being noted along and north of the
i-20 corridor by Friday.

Rainfall will return to the remainder of the four-state region by
this weekend as yet another ua trough across the western conus
ejects northeastward across the central plains. Another FROPA is
poised for Sunday and it will usher in a drier airmass which will
slowly bring about the end of the precip with perhaps some
lingering precip across central and southern la . All in all we are
in for a rather wet period for the next several days. The weather
prediction center has projected 7 day rainfall totals of the
following: 8.00-10.00 inches across some of extreme northeast tx,
southeast ok and southwest ar, 6.00-8.00 inches across portions of
east tx, northeast tx southeast ok and southwest ar, 4.00-6.00
inches across portions of east tx, northwest la and southwest ar,
3.00-4.00 inches across portions of deep east tx to across central
and northeast la and less than 3.00 inches elsewhere. Of course
the flash flood watch will remain in effect aross southeast ok,
portions of east tx and southwest ar for now, as additional
counties and parishes will likely be added as we progress
throughout the rain event. Be sure to stay up-to-date with the
latest weather information.

Another above normal warm day is expected today middle to upper
70s to lower 80s with once again some locales possibly flirting
or breaking daytime temp records. The cool down will commence
tomorrow with the onset of precip and the front and so daytime
temps is anticipated to fall to the 50s and 60s by Thursday. This
will however be short-lived as the retreating warm front results
in highs in the 60s and 70s by Friday-Saturday. Ongoing precip
this weekend and extensive cloud cover will have temps settle in
around the 60s by late weekend into early next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 81 65 65 54 60 100 100 90
mlu 84 68 72 57 20 40 100 90
deq 77 46 51 46 90 100 100 80
txk 78 53 55 47 70 100 100 90
eld 80 62 63 49 40 100 100 90
tyr 76 50 55 51 90 100 100 80
ggg 79 56 59 52 60 100 100 90
lfk 80 65 71 60 60 80 100 90

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... Lake wind advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for arz050-051-
059>061-070>073.

Flash flood watch from this evening through late Wednesday night
for arz050-051-059>061-070-071.

La... Lake wind advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for laz001>006-
010>014-017>022.

Ok... Lake wind advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for okz077.

Flash flood watch from this evening through late Wednesday night
for okz077.

Tx... Lake wind advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for txz096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

Flash flood watch from this evening through late Wednesday night
for txz096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nacogdoches, A L Mangham Jr. Regional Airport, TX4 mi50 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast70°F64°F84%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from OCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S16
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1 day agoE5SE4S5S3SE5SE8SE11E7SE5SE7SE8S11
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G15
2 days agoNW11CalmNW8N9N5--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE4E43E3NE3CalmE6E5E6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.