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FXUS64 KSHV 071554 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1054 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are already rising into the lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Later this afternoon, temperature maximums will approach the lower 90s as cloud coverage thins to partly cloudy. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Early morning NT Microphysics imagery shows low clouds streaming north across the FA, as upper-level sheared cirrus from deep convection across OK/AR drifts west to east, just north of the I-30 corridor. For the most part, Tuesday will remain dry and quiet, with the main story through the afternoon being the warmer temperatures as highs climb into the upper 80's to near 90 deg F.

Given the extent of the diurnally driven sfc heating this afternoon, hi-res guidance advertises an aggressive display of surface-based instability parameters across the Four State Region with SBCAPE values as high as 3000-3500 J/kg or greater, with 0-6 km bulk shear values between 40-50 kts, and 700-500 lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. The catch here is that while this may be available, guidance looks to leave it mostly untapped as forcing remains well displaced from the local coverage zone, primarily located in a region of better synoptic forcing and ascent well to the north and east of the local area.

Morning guidance continues to suggest that a residual sfc boundary may exist close to the I-30 corridor this afternoon from overnight convection across Oklahoma. This boundary should wash out and lose it's potency due to afternoon mixing. It is worth mentioning that some CAMs do suggest a secondary instability axis to drift north into the better sfc parameters, supporting some limited convective initiation by the evening, but by this point it may be too late for any deeply rooted convection to evolve. Main concerns if any thunderstorms are to develop along the instability axis would be the threat for gusty winds and hail.
This would be located mainly in the Marginal risk zone (level 1 of 5), highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 outlook.

Wednesday Severe Threat:

By Wednesday morning, better forcing starts to dig into the Southern Plains, with a sfc cold front advancing southward, progged to enter into the Four State Region by mid to late Wednesday afternoon.
Another warm afternoon across the FA will promote further sfc instability as high temperatures easily climb to 90 deg F and possibly a degree or two higher. As the boundary clashes with the local airmass, deeply rooted convective initiation will look to develop across a region of high SBCAPE profiles approaching, and possibly even exceeding, 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear between 40-50 kts, and steep lapse rates nearing 8.0 C/km.

Though some low level directional shear will be present, supporting the chance for a tornado or two, the main concern from the advertised CAMs and HRRR solution will be the threat for large hail within the Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5). Based on latest guidance, convection should diminish ahead of sunrise Thursday.

RK

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

By Thursday morning, the forward speed of the advancing sfc boundary will dictate the coverage of the day 3 severe threat locally.
General thinking for now is that the boundary will be located somewhere between I-30 and I-20, and is progged to slide south through the afternoon. Afternoon maxT's south of the boundary will climb into the upper 80's and low 90's, with instability parameters strongest in this region. Frontal based forcing will support convective initiation along and ahead of the boundary by the afternoon, and continue into the evening in the form of a possible MCS. Primary concerns with the developing convection is the threat for damaging wind, and large hail. The chance for an embedded tornado should not ruled out.

The front will sag south of the FA by Friday AM, with high pressure influencing the region for much of Friday and into weekend. Guidance overnight now keeps much of the area rain free till about early to mid next week. Post frontal passage airmass will help return temps to near normal through the remainder of the forecast period.

RK

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Little change from the 06z TAF package. Widespread MVFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace. Should see these ceilings lift above MVFR categories, becoming low VFR by mid to late morning with low VFR ceilings scattering out during the afternoon. While cannot rule out isolated showers later today, pop coverage does not warrant a mention in this 12z TAF package. Look for returning MVFR ceilings later this evening into the overnight hours.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 74 90 72 / 10 10 20 40 MLU 88 73 91 71 / 10 0 10 40 DEQ 86 66 85 63 / 20 20 30 50 TXK 89 72 90 68 / 10 20 30 60 ELD 88 70 90 67 / 20 20 20 60 TYR 88 71 89 71 / 10 10 30 30 GGG 88 72 90 70 / 10 10 30 30 LFK 89 72 91 73 / 10 0 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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