Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nacogdoches, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:12PM Friday February 22, 2019 10:42 AM CST (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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location: 31.61, -94.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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Fxus64 kshv 221156
afdshv
area forecast discussion
national weather service shreveport la
556 am cst Fri feb 22 2019

Aviation
For the 22 12z tafs... A mixture of ifr lifr conditions expected
throughout the period as low CIGS and thunderstorms move across
the TAF sites. After 23 09z, a line of thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a cold front and approach ktyr and possibly kggg klfk.

Some of the storms could approach severe strength, with damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.

Prev discussion issued 448 am cst Fri feb 22 2019
short term... Today through Saturday
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over portions of the
region this morning as an amplifying longwave trough over the
great basin and desert SW continues to send embedded disturbances
in SW flow into our region. One to two inches of rain has already
occurred across portions of northwest louisiana and south-central
arkansas over the past several hours where the stronger
convection has been located. This overrunning precipitation is
expected to continue throughout today. By this afternoon a warm
front along the tx la gulf coast is expected to lift inland into
our region, before stalling and eventually mixing out across
extreme southeast oklahoma and adjacent SW arkansas. This boundary
along with additional disturbances moving across the region in
southwest flow, will help increase rain chances and enhance
convection over the region this evening. Some additional locally
heavy rain will be possible. Warmer and more humid air will also
begin to lift into the region behind the warm front today. This
will result in a wide range of high temperatures today, with highs
in the mid 60s to low 70s south of the us hwy 84 corridor, and
mid 50s to lower 60s across the remainder of the region. There is
some concern that storms developing along the warm front could
become strong enough to produce some isolated severe hail and or
wind gusts as effective bulk shear will be over 40 kts along with
dcape near 1000 j kg. This has prompted the storm prediction
center to put out a marginal risk across the entire region today.

The longwave trough will become negatively tilted as it begins to
eject NE into the tx ok panhandle region late tonight into Saturday
morning. The trough and associated cold front will rapidly push
towards the region, arriving at our western door step near
sunrise. A warmer and more moisture rich environment will be in
place across the entire region in wake of today's warm front. Low
level lapse rates will approach 8.5 c km along with effective
bulk shear over 40 kts and both dcape and sbcapes over 1000 j kg.

This should yield an atmosphere primed for strong to severe
thunderstorms. As a result, the storm prediction center has put
out a slight risk for most of the region. Large scale forcing
will develop just ahead of the front along a dry line or pre-
frontal trough resulting in a broken line of strong to potentially
svr convection initially across portions of east texas and se
oklahoma Saturday morning. This line should eventually consolidate
into a MCS as it rapidly advances eastward across the region.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will be
possible with this line along with some brief heavy rain. As of
now widespread flash flooding appears to be a minimum threat as
only one to two inches of rain will be possible in the stronger
storms. The cold front should sweep through the entire region by
late Saturday afternoon, pushing all convection out of the region.

Behind the front, much drier air will advect into the region. Wnw
winds near 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph will be possible over
the western half of the region through late Saturday evening.

20
long term... Saturday night through Friday night
in the wake of strong to severe convection which should pass quickly
through the region on Saturday, the trough responsible for bringing
this convection into the region will be quickly moving into the
central plains. A cold front associated with this trough will swing
through our region Saturday night with cooler temperatures in its
wake. Temperatures should rebound on Sunday with near zonal flow
aloft and this will begin a well deserved drying trend across our
entire region which should last through at least Monday of next
week.

Beyond Monday, upper flow begins to take on a slight southwest
orientation which may allow for increasing chances for showers
overspreading the southern half of our region Monday night and
encompassing our entire region Tuesday into Wednesday. Models
diverge on this solution as the ECMWF is much drier and does not
draw up pacific and gulf of mexico moisture as does the GFS and
canadian. This does not look like a heavy precipitation producer but
did lean towards the wetter solutions for the middle of next week.

We will see good dewpoint recovery by late Tuesday into Wednesday so
did introduce thunderstorms back in the forecast for these periods.

A trough across the upper midwest will usher in a cold front
Wednesday night which should help to dry us out somewhat for the end
of the work week but this will need to be watched as some medium
range progs hold onto rain chances with a weak trough which may move
across our region by the end of the extended periods.

13

Preliminary point temps pops
Shv 58 56 70 40 60 60 80 0
mlu 62 62 74 44 70 60 80 10
deq 53 48 68 35 60 60 90 0
txk 53 51 69 37 60 60 90 0
eld 55 54 71 39 60 60 80 0
tyr 56 54 67 39 60 60 90 0
ggg 57 55 69 39 60 60 90 0
lfk 62 61 71 41 60 60 90 0

Shv watches warnings advisories
Ar... None.

La... None.

Ok... None.

Tx... None.

20


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Nacogdoches, A L Mangham Jr. Regional Airport, TX4 mi47 minVar 41.25 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Rain Fog/Mist49°F48°F97%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from OCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE5N6NE54E63E9
G17
E8NE6E7
G14
3NE7E5E6E63CalmCalmE9CalmE4NE44
1 day agoW8NW6NW8NW5W6Calm5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE6N4E8
G19
E6E84
2 days agoE7E10
G20
E10E73N44343NE3NW9N6N9N9NE4NW5NW5NW6NW6NW7NW9NW12NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Shreveport, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Shreveport, LA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.