Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX
May 19, 2024 5:47 AM CDT (10:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:49 PM Moonset 2:59 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 190838 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 338 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A split-flow pattern continues in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere early this Sunday morning, with a belt of rather strong cyclonic flow encompassing the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains in the northern stream, while a closed, almost cut off low meanders well off the southern California coast, with weak troughing across the desert SW and an amplifying ridge of high pressure over the Southern Great Plains and Lower MS Valley in the southern stream. Near the surface, a cyclone is centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border, with a cold front draped S/SW across the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains. Another area of low pressure is noted across Georgia, with high pressure over the Lower MS Valley and ArkLaTex and across the Midwest and Central to Northern Great Plains.
Provided the pattern described above, it's another quiet morning across the Four State Region. Skies are clear and winds are calm, which is allowing for optimal radiational cooling above a moist surface. Already seeing some patchy fog developing as of 07z and expect areas of fog to continue through and shortly after daybreak. Patchy dense fog will be possible where visibility could be 1/4 mile or less, but will not be widespread enough to warrant a headline. As fog then dissipates shortly after sunrise, sunny skies will prevail and temperatures will warm quickly given subsidence aloft from upper level ridging. A nice cumulus field will develop again this afternoon, resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies with high temps creeping into the low 90s (near 90 SE OK and SW AR).
Tonight, a shortwave trough traversing the Ok panhandle into the Central Plains is likely to spark convection across OK, with this activity eventually pushing into Arkansas. This will pose no threat to the local area, but will likely bring some high cloud cover to northern zones tonight into early Monday. High clouds expected to be thin enough to not really affect radiational cooling, but with some drying of soils through Sunday fog development and coverage is expected to be much more isolated/patchy Monday morning vs Sunday morning.
The upper level ridge will hold its place across the area on Monday, resulting in another hot and dry day with afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. Another afternoon cumulus field will be present, with southerly winds beginning to increase across the western half of the CWA in response to surface cyclogenesis beginning across the OK panhandle.
While the short term period will be hot and dry, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. No heat related headlines will be needed.
Kovacik
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The large scale pattern to begin the long term period will feature a fairly high amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a large scale trough over the Western US and large scale (relatively) ridging over the Eastern US. An impulse will eject out of the large scale Western US trough into the Central Plains Monday night, enhancing lee cyclogenesis across the OK panhandle, with this sfc cyclone then moving into Kansas Tuesday morning.
This will begin to push sfc high pressure across the ArkLaTex eastward, with an increasing pressure gradient and enhanced southerly flow from the GOM northward across E TX. Low cloud cover is expected over a good portion of western zones Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridge influence then looks to remain strong enough to make for another hot and partly to mostly sunny day with high temps again in the low to mid 90. Dewpoints will begin to creep towards 70 degrees, so it will begin to feel a bit muggier. The ridge axis will be slowly shifting east of the area late in the day as an upper level low deepens and closes over the Upper MS Valley and the Western US trough progresses eastward into the Plains.
As both the upper level and sfc lows over the Upper MS Valley deepen substantially Tuesday night into Wednesday, convection will develop along the associated frontal boundaries, the cold frontal portion of which will extend S/SW into AR and N TX. Convection along the front in our neck of the woods is likely to be enhanced by additional short wave perturbations, so expect rain and storm chances to return to far northern zones late Tuesday into Wednesday. SPC has clipped far northern zones in a marginal risk for severe weather.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will dampen, leaving its influence south and east of the area, with the upper level flow turning more quasi-zonal to SW. The frontal boundary will slowly sink towards the LA/AR border and despite the best dynamics from the parent system being displaced well to the north across the Great Lakes, shortwaves within the weakly-oriented SW flow will fire convection across the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. While not outlooked by SPC on Wednesday, given dewpoints around 70 or into the low 70s and the boundary in the CWA, a few strong to severe storms certainly appear possible, esp given model projected mean layer instability in the 1000-2000J/kg range.
Wednesday night into Thursday, this boundary is likely to either remain stationary or gently shift northward. With an unstable environment encompassing just about the entire CWA on Thursday, the threat for severe weather will exist, especially as another shortwave looks to pass overtop the boundary carry the boundary back into/across the area. SPC currently has the area outlooked and will watch this closely over the next few days.
The boundary and the shortwave will then pass to the east on Friday, with little to essentially no change in airmass and additional shortwaves passing across the area. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon and evening, more diurnally driven than previous days. The same story appears likely for Saturday before general ensemble consensus leans towards the rebuilding of the upper level ridge. High temps look hot to end the forecast period, in the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 or in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices near or just above 100 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Wet soils combined with light and variable winds will result in patchy fog and scattered instances of MVFR/IFR flight conditions early in the period. Any fog that develops should mix out between 19/12z-19/14z. Beyond then, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for the rest of the period with a scattered cu field likely during the daytime hours.
CN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 89 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 90 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 91 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 91 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 338 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
A split-flow pattern continues in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere early this Sunday morning, with a belt of rather strong cyclonic flow encompassing the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and Northern Plains in the northern stream, while a closed, almost cut off low meanders well off the southern California coast, with weak troughing across the desert SW and an amplifying ridge of high pressure over the Southern Great Plains and Lower MS Valley in the southern stream. Near the surface, a cyclone is centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border, with a cold front draped S/SW across the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains. Another area of low pressure is noted across Georgia, with high pressure over the Lower MS Valley and ArkLaTex and across the Midwest and Central to Northern Great Plains.
Provided the pattern described above, it's another quiet morning across the Four State Region. Skies are clear and winds are calm, which is allowing for optimal radiational cooling above a moist surface. Already seeing some patchy fog developing as of 07z and expect areas of fog to continue through and shortly after daybreak. Patchy dense fog will be possible where visibility could be 1/4 mile or less, but will not be widespread enough to warrant a headline. As fog then dissipates shortly after sunrise, sunny skies will prevail and temperatures will warm quickly given subsidence aloft from upper level ridging. A nice cumulus field will develop again this afternoon, resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies with high temps creeping into the low 90s (near 90 SE OK and SW AR).
Tonight, a shortwave trough traversing the Ok panhandle into the Central Plains is likely to spark convection across OK, with this activity eventually pushing into Arkansas. This will pose no threat to the local area, but will likely bring some high cloud cover to northern zones tonight into early Monday. High clouds expected to be thin enough to not really affect radiational cooling, but with some drying of soils through Sunday fog development and coverage is expected to be much more isolated/patchy Monday morning vs Sunday morning.
The upper level ridge will hold its place across the area on Monday, resulting in another hot and dry day with afternoon temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s. Another afternoon cumulus field will be present, with southerly winds beginning to increase across the western half of the CWA in response to surface cyclogenesis beginning across the OK panhandle.
While the short term period will be hot and dry, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will keep heat indices below 100 degrees. No heat related headlines will be needed.
Kovacik
LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
The large scale pattern to begin the long term period will feature a fairly high amplitude pattern across the CONUS with a large scale trough over the Western US and large scale (relatively) ridging over the Eastern US. An impulse will eject out of the large scale Western US trough into the Central Plains Monday night, enhancing lee cyclogenesis across the OK panhandle, with this sfc cyclone then moving into Kansas Tuesday morning.
This will begin to push sfc high pressure across the ArkLaTex eastward, with an increasing pressure gradient and enhanced southerly flow from the GOM northward across E TX. Low cloud cover is expected over a good portion of western zones Tuesday morning.
Upper level ridge influence then looks to remain strong enough to make for another hot and partly to mostly sunny day with high temps again in the low to mid 90. Dewpoints will begin to creep towards 70 degrees, so it will begin to feel a bit muggier. The ridge axis will be slowly shifting east of the area late in the day as an upper level low deepens and closes over the Upper MS Valley and the Western US trough progresses eastward into the Plains.
As both the upper level and sfc lows over the Upper MS Valley deepen substantially Tuesday night into Wednesday, convection will develop along the associated frontal boundaries, the cold frontal portion of which will extend S/SW into AR and N TX. Convection along the front in our neck of the woods is likely to be enhanced by additional short wave perturbations, so expect rain and storm chances to return to far northern zones late Tuesday into Wednesday. SPC has clipped far northern zones in a marginal risk for severe weather.
On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will dampen, leaving its influence south and east of the area, with the upper level flow turning more quasi-zonal to SW. The frontal boundary will slowly sink towards the LA/AR border and despite the best dynamics from the parent system being displaced well to the north across the Great Lakes, shortwaves within the weakly-oriented SW flow will fire convection across the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. While not outlooked by SPC on Wednesday, given dewpoints around 70 or into the low 70s and the boundary in the CWA, a few strong to severe storms certainly appear possible, esp given model projected mean layer instability in the 1000-2000J/kg range.
Wednesday night into Thursday, this boundary is likely to either remain stationary or gently shift northward. With an unstable environment encompassing just about the entire CWA on Thursday, the threat for severe weather will exist, especially as another shortwave looks to pass overtop the boundary carry the boundary back into/across the area. SPC currently has the area outlooked and will watch this closely over the next few days.
The boundary and the shortwave will then pass to the east on Friday, with little to essentially no change in airmass and additional shortwaves passing across the area. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible Friday afternoon and evening, more diurnally driven than previous days. The same story appears likely for Saturday before general ensemble consensus leans towards the rebuilding of the upper level ridge. High temps look hot to end the forecast period, in the mid 90s with dewpoints near 70 or in the low 70s, resulting in heat indices near or just above 100 degrees.
Kovacik
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Wet soils combined with light and variable winds will result in patchy fog and scattered instances of MVFR/IFR flight conditions early in the period. Any fog that develops should mix out between 19/12z-19/14z. Beyond then, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for the rest of the period with a scattered cu field likely during the daytime hours.
CN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 89 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 90 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 91 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 91 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Shreveport, LA,
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