Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:10PM Thursday April 18, 2019 9:45 AM PDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181126
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
426 am mst Thu apr 18 2019

Update Aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Temperatures will be notably warmer through Friday as high
pressure builds over the region. Lower elevation communities will
approach the century mark Friday afternoon. A dry weather system
will move through Saturday, first bringing some breezy weather
then slightly cooler temperatures following on Sunday and Monday.

Heading into next week, a return to warmer weather is likely with
another run at triple digit temperatures possible Wednesday.

Discussion
Flow pattern broadly across the region features a long wave ridge
over the southwest united states with a cut-off low several
hundred miles off the coast of southern california. A broad trough
extends from the pacific northwest off into the ocean, to the
west of the cut-off low. Closer to our forecast area, skies were
clear with exception of some high cirrus coming in from the
southwest. At the surface, drier air is working into the sonoran
desert from the mojave desert, though dew point values were still
a bit elevated across central arizona.

The sharp warming trend is still on track for the next few days as
the aforementioned ridge strengthens over the region. H5
heights h85 temps will increase today with values eclipsing the
95th 90th percentile for this time of year. This will translate
into a wed-to-thu warm-up of about 5-15 deg f (lesser to the west,
greater toward the east). Heading into Friday, the off-shore
closed-low will open up as the trough further north west picks up
the low as both systems progress east. This will allow for
enhanced warm air advection and another warming of 2-8 deg f.

Lower elevation locations such as EL centro, yuma, parker, and
phoenix will reach the upper 90s. It is entirely plausible a few
locations tip over into the triple digits, which would be the
first time this year for most places (a few did hit 100+ on april
8th).

These warm temperatures will bring a moderate heatrisk to a few
locations, primarily in the hot spots of the imperial, lower
colorado river, lower gila river, and salt river valleys. This
would include EL centro, yuma, parker, and phoenix. While
temperatures this warm are not unheard of, they are approaching
record levels. Data from county and state level health partners
have shown an increases in heat-related illnesses with
temperatures such as these coming up. Folks are encouraged to
make sure they are properly hydrating and seeking relief from the
heat.

As troughing redevelops across the region Saturday into early next
week, temperatures will moderate just a bit. However, they will
remain above seasonal normals. With the first (very likely dry)
trough passage Saturday, winds will pick-up across the region.

Beyond being notably breezy, open desert areas of southeast
california and southwest arizona may see some blowing dust. The
winds combined with low humidity levels will also be something to
monitor for fire weather concerns.

Yet another trough moves in Sunday, quickly on the heels of the
first. This somewhat complicated flow pattern begins to get noisy
in the ensemble data by early next week, though there is certainly
a signal to favor troughing across the southwest Sun mon. Where
exactly that sets up and how progressive it may may not be will
determine how cool we get and how quickly we warm up. A more
robust low to the east in the mon-tue timeframe would result in
increased northerly winds across the region and even the chance of
a few showers across the high terrain of eastern arizona. Current
ensemble guidance suggests breezy conditions early in the week
followed by warming temperatures Wed thu. If a location does not
hit 100 deg f on Friday, similar temperatures look likely again
later next week.

For now, see no reason to significantly deviate from national
blend guidance for the full forecast period. Only notable
adjustment will be to retain slightly higher wind wind gust
values.

Aviation Updated at 1125 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt;
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
no aviation concerns through the TAF period with light winds and
mostly clear skies. Easterly winds below 6 knots at phoenix
terminals will veer to the west around 21z except at kiwa where
winds may back to the northwest in the late morning. Light diurnal
winds below 10 knots are expected at kipl and kblh as winds
gradually veer to the west by tomorrow evening. Skies will be
clear tonight, before few-sct ceilings AOA 25 kft move in from
the west early this morning and spread eastward. By midnight
tomorrow, skies will once again be clear across all TAF sites.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Wednesday:
there will be elevated fire weather concerns this weekend as low
humidity values combine with breezy conditions. The strongest wind
gusts, in excess of 20-25 miles per hour, will spread across
southeast california and the mountains north and east of phoenix,
including the tonto nf, on Saturday. Those stronger winds will
shift east and only impact tonto nf on Sunday. Both days,
afternoon humidity values will bottom out in the 10-20 percent
range with overnight recovery generally 30-50 percent. After the
weekend, the winds will decrease and follow more typical diurnal
tendencies, but humidity values will remain quite low.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected for the next 7 days.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Iniguez
aviation... Hernandez
fire weather... Iniguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi49 minNNE 310.00 miFair76°F32°F20%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3N10
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N7NE4W6SW6W6CalmNE6SW5SW4SE3SE3CalmCalmNE3CalmN3
1 day agoNW11NW12
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2 days agoW6NW54W6W4CalmSW9W8W6W4W8W7SW5S8SW4CalmCalmCalmNW6N5N5NW6NW7NW9

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Thu -- 01:41 AM MST     3.53 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:06 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:51 AM MST     -3.58 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:00 PM MST     3.51 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:07 PM MST     -3.33 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.33.52.81.3-0.4-2.1-3.3-3.6-3-1.70.11.833.53.11.90.2-1.5-2.8-3.3-3-1.9-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Thu -- 02:33 AM PDT     5.43 meters High Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:44 AM PDT     -1.28 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 02:54 PM PDT     5.46 meters High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:09 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM PDT     -1.12 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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34.45.35.34.63.21.5-0.1-1-1.3-0.60.72.445.15.553.72.10.5-0.7-1.1-0.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.