Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday July 18, 2018 11:00 PM PDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 190354
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
854 pm mst Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
The potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue for the next several days before a decrease in
activity is expected for Sunday through early next week.

Simultaneously, high pressure will build across the region later
this week weekend resulting in a warming trend with excessive heat
possible Monday & Tuesday.

Discussion
Despite large capes across the area, storms were relocated to high
terrain areas this afternoon and early evening. Warming aloft has
led to overall capped conditions with little hope of any trigger
breaking the cap over the lower deserts. Hi-res cams show any
remaining storm activity over eastern arizona falling apart by
late evening with no additional development during the overnight.

Moisture levels will continue to be high on Thursday with
forecast soundings indicating a bit less of a capping inversion
but also lower capes. This may allow for a storm or two into the
lower deserts Thursday evening, but the latest hi-res cams don't
show things being much different than what we had today.

Previous discussion
As we head into Friday and Saturday, temperatures will gradually
warm as high pressure builds over new mexico and texas. The desert
sw will still stay under light southeasterly flow aloft but
moisture looks to diminish slightly with pws generally ranging
between 1.5-1.75 inches. At this point, expecting low grade
monsoon activity each day with about a 10% chance of storms around
phoenix during the late afternoon evenings. While it is hard to
pinpoint a more active time, both the GFS and NAM show a decaying
mcs moving through south-central az during the Friday night and
Saturday morning timeframe.

Beyond this, the area of high pressure will expand westward
Sunday and Monday, eventually becoming repositioned over arizona.

This will lead to warming aloft, along with a drying trend in the
low-levels, with excessive heat becoming a concern Monday and
especially Tuesday. Model guidance continues to indicate near-
record 500-mb heights approaching 600 dm during this period. High
temperatures are now forecast to be well above 110 degrees across
most lower desert locations, and an excessive heat watch has been
issued. The position of the anticyclone becomes less certain into
Wednesday, but will likely linger somewhere near the southwest
into the middle of next week.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
westerly surface winds will prevail through the majority of the
overnight hours with kphx likely staying west through Thursday
afternoon. Any showers and storms for the rest of the evening and
tonight will remain out of the lower deserts with little chance of
any storm outflows affecting the terminals. Storm chances for
Thursday evening will likely be a bit better, especially across
the high terrain. This should at least send easterly outflows
into the phoenix area sometime Thursday evening.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
little in terms of aviation concerns for the next 24 hours as no
thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals. Winds will
typically favor the southeast at kipl and the south at kblh with
speeds mostly 12kt or lower. A few high based afternoon cumulus
are possible otherwise just variable amounts of mid high cloud
decks.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Wednesday: isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible Friday, especially across the higher terrain north
and east of the phoenix area. However, moisture values will undergo
a gradual decrease into the weekend, and expecting only a slight
chance of any thunderstorms area-wide by Saturday. Daytime minimum
relative humidity values will also fall closer to 15%. A significant
increase in heat is advertised for Monday through Wednesday, with
high temperatures above 115 degrees expected over the lower deserts.

The winds will be generally light and follow typical diurnal trends.

Only very isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
early next week over higher terrain east of phoenix, mainly east of
globe.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for azz532-535>537-539>544-546-548>551-559.

Excessive heat watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for azz530-531-533-534-538-545-547-552>556-560>562.

Ca... Excessive heat watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for caz560>570.

Discussion... Kuhlman
previous discussion... Wilson rogers
aviation... Kuhlman
fire weather... Cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi64 minSSW 710.00 miFair89°F69°F52%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S15S20
G25
S19S9SE14SE9SE12SE15E8S7SE8S6S6S943SW5SW8SW7
G16
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1 day agoS7S8S16S14SE11SE15S14SE15SE13S14S14S13S9S7S11S7SW6SW8S8SW8S8S9S13S8
2 days agoS5S6S8S7S9S7S7S8SE7SE10SE9S13S12S9
G17
S866SE8SE6S11S12S11S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Thu -- 12:03 AM MST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:52 AM MST     -1.13 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:46 AM MST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM MST     0.69 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM MST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM MST     First Quarter
Thu -- 02:14 PM MST     -0.62 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM MST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM MST     0.98 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.7-0.20.20.50.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.3-00.40.70.910.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Thu -- 12:04 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 AM PDT     0.67 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:43 AM PDT     3.13 meters High Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:53 PM PDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 02:45 PM PDT     1.11 meters Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:05 PM PDT     3.37 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.610.70.711.62.22.73.13.12.92.521.51.21.11.31.72.32.83.23.43.32.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.