Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:05PM Friday January 19, 2018 9:09 AM PST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:19AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 191235
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
535 am mst Fri jan 19 2018

Update
Updated aviation and fire weather sections.

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the region today with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions. A notable storm system will move
into the southwest later today and into Saturday. While it still
does not look like a very wet system,it will result in increasing
winds and a significant drop in temperatures. After a cool Saturday
and Sunday, temperatures will slowly rebound heading into the first
part of next week.

Discussion
Early this morning, NE to SW oriented ridge continued to fold over
and move to the southeast across arizona, as a deep and cold pacific
upper trof approached the california coast. IR imagery showed some
high clouds moving through the ridge but for the most part skies
were clear across the lower deserts. Despite the falling heights
today as the trof approaches, and the increase in high clouds from
the west, high temperatures should stay similar to yesterday and may
even climb a couple of degrees across south-central arizona under
the influence of some low level warm advection ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Very little has changed in our forecast thinking and very few
changes have been made to our package this morning. Operational runs
of the GFS and ECMWF maintain good consistency between themselves,
and run to run consistency is high. GEFS spaghetti ensemble members
are very much in agreement with the timing and track of the
approaching system. It still looks to be on the dry side with
respect to QPF although our pops have climbed slightly - mainly for
higher terrain areas to the east of phoenix on Saturday - as the
system may not be quite as moisture-starved as we previously
thought. Latest ivt forecasts from the GFS show a slightly more
enhanced atmospheric river moving into arizona Friday night into
Saturday, ahead of the front and with dynamics expected to be rather
strong, shower coverage may also be a bit enhanced, at least for
higher terrain locations in southern gila county. Latest SREF plumes
data still advertises minimal QPF for phoenix with this system; most
of the members call for total deserts rains less than 0.05 inches.

We still do not expect significant wind issues Friday afternoon and
evening and our forecast reflect slightly weaker winds than what we
called for a couple of days ago. We should see breezy southwest to
west winds develop over the western deserts Friday afternoon with
some windy conditions over favored higher terrain locations in far
se california, such as joshua tree np. Winds should stay below wind
advisory thresholds.

Surface cold front should race across the western deserts Friday
night, then move across south central arizona and pass through the
phoenix area during late morning early afternoon on Saturday. Best
rain and snow chances will be over higher terrain areas north and
east of phoenix and highest pops are in the likely category (at
least 60 percent) for much of southern gila county. QPF is still
low, mostly below 0.15 inches east of phoenix and despite snow
levels lowering to near 4000 feet by Saturday evening, snow amounts
will be minimal and should not pose any real impacts.

Following the cold front, we expect a very cool day Saturday with
deserts falling into the upper 50s to low 60s; phoenix should top
out around 59 degrees. Very little change in temps expected Sunday
due to limited mixing and only very modest height rises expected.

As the main trof moves into new mexico Saturday night, there will
be lingering chance of mainly evening showers east of phoenix,
mainly of the instability variety as cold air aloft moves overhead.

By Sunday morning precip threat will be basically over for our area.

With skies clearing significantly behind the front Saturday night,
the cold airmass combined with lighter winds and good radiational
cooling will result in a rather cold morning Sunday morning. Most of
the deserts will fall into the 30s, including the greater phoenix
area. Some of the outlying desert areas including communities such
as casa grande, wickenburg, bouse and tacna, will see lows drop to
near freezing. Cold temps not widespread enough or cold enough to
warrant the issuance of a freeze warning at this time.

For Monday into the middle of next week, overall we expect dry
conditions as dry west to northwest flow aloft sets up over the
desert southwest. A weak dry wave will move through the area,
embedded in the northwest flow aloft, on Monday and this will result
in some increased high cloud cover. Otherwise expect mostly sunny
days and clear nights to go along with a gradual warming trend.

Central desert highs should remain in the 60s through Tuesday, then
finally climb into the lower 70s on Wednesday.

For the very end of the forecast period, Thursday, both the GFS and
ecmwf indicate the potential for another deep and cold upper trof to
move through the western conus. At this time it appears rather dry
for our area (southern arizona) but should lead to a cooling trend
later next week. We do have some single digit pops in the forecast
as a precaution.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
light easterly winds will take on a southerly component this
afternoon with phx struggling to turn westerly. An approaching
cold front will favor southeasterly winds tonight. Anticipate the
front to track across metro phoenix in the 12z-16z Saturday time
frame. In addition to stronger winds with a westerly component, it
will bring stratocumulus clouds with ceilings as low as fl050-070
before rising in the afternoon. Showers will be spotty and light
(a bit more numerous north and east portions of metro phoenix).

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
surface winds will be light and variable this morning before
southerly winds develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front (most noticeably over the lower colorado river valley).

Anticipate winds will be strongest between 03z-09z tonight as the
front passes through with gusts of 20-30kts. Winds will weaken
after FROPA before strengthening again in the afternoon. Some
local patchy blowing dust is possible.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Sunday through Thursday:
anticipate a warming trend during the first half of next week.

Accordingly, humidities will trend downward though overnight
recovery will remain good. Winds will be light and favor north and
northeasterly directions. During the latter part of next week, a
passing weather system will bring cooler temperatures and stronger
winds. At this time, rain chances will be slight at best and will
be limited to the higher terrain of south-central az.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Cb
aviation... Aj
fire weather... Aj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi2.2 hrsN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F30°F48%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12NE8NE8NE9NE9E7E7E7E3E4N6SE3CalmN3NE4NE3E3NE5E3NE4--CalmSE5SE4
1 day agoN10NE11NE10NE9N5N3N3N4N6N6CalmCalmNE3S3CalmN6N5N5N8NE4N7NE5NE11NE11
2 days agoNE9N10NE11NE12N8NE9NE6--NE3--N6N6N4NE3N6N4NE6N8NE6N7E10NE10NE10NE10

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Fri -- 03:29 AM MST     2.77 meters High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:37 AM MST     -1.84 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:19 PM MST     1.80 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 PM MST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:35 PM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:26 PM MST     -2.62 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.412.12.72.72.11.1-0.1-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.3-0.50.51.31.81.710-1.1-2-2.6-2.5-1.9

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Fri -- 03:29 AM PST     4.81 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:18 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:36 AM PST     0.22 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 03:22 PM PST     4.03 meters High Tide
Fri -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:31 PM PST     -0.57 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.734.14.74.74.13.11.90.90.30.30.81.62.73.543.93.32.31.10.1-0.5-0.50.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.