Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:24 PM Moonrise 5:17 AM   Moonset 7:20 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 071110 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 410 AM MST Tue May 7 2024

UPDATE
Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue for the rest of the week with an increase in winds today and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near normal through around Friday before rising to above normal over the weekend into early next week when afternoon highs may climb to around 100 degrees across parts of the lower deserts.

DISCUSSION
The weather pattern will become somewhat stagnant across the region over the next several days as the upper level low which is currently centered over the Northern Plains retrogrades back to the southwest. For today, a shortwave trough is forecast to slide southeastward down the back side of the large scale trough reinvigorating the southwest portion of the trough. This will help to bring an increase in winds over much of the area starting this afternoon with gusts into a 20-25 mph range. By late tonight into early Wednesday morning, a weak dry cold front is expected to push southward down the Lower CO River Valley. This should lead to an increase in winds behind the front during the morning hours across portions of southeast California and far western Arizona with occasional gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. Elsewhere on Wednesday, wind gusts in the afternoon are likely to again reach to near 25 mph at times.

After a couple days of cooler temperatures, readings today are forecast to warm back into a normal range, mostly into the upper 80s to the lower 90s across the lower deserts. Behind the weak cold front on Wednesday, temperatures should dip a few degrees across the western deserts, but will again top out around 90 degrees in the Phoenix area.

Model ensemble guidance is now mostly in agreement the retrograding upper low will settle somewhere just to our north by Thursday and then likely remain fairly stationary into the coming weekend. This pattern evolution will help to keep temperatures from warming any further for a few days with readings likely remaining right around seasonal normals through at least Friday.
For the coming weekend, guidance shows the upper low weakening enough that temperatures will trend upward with highs climbing into the mid to possibly upper 90s. At some point early next week, we may see the upper level ridge fully move over our region.
However, heights aloft are not likely to get much of a boost and it may only raise temperatures another couple degrees, or right near 100 degrees. Either way, continued dry conditions are heavily favored into next week.

AVIATION
Updated at 1110Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under clear skies. Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal patterns, with light easterly winds this morning becoming west to southwest during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Occasional gustiness 20-25 kts is expected during the late afternoon hours. Winds will weaken going into the overnight hours, with easterly winds returning after midnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No weather issues will exist through tonight under clear skies.
Light winds, favoring the southerly direction will continue into the afternoon hours. Some gustiness out of the south to 20 kts expected to develop at BLH during the afternoon hours, with late afternoon/evening gusts picking up out of the westerly direction at IPL 20-25 kts. Winds will then subside going into the overnight hours, but will continue to favor a westerly direction.



FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions will prevail through at least mid week with another round of breezy conditions starting today and lasting through Wednesday. Wind gusts this afternoon will commonly reaching to around 20 mph areawide before stronger gusts of up to 30-35 mph will be possible Wednesday morning into the early afternoon across the Lower CO River Valley. Elsewhere on Wednesday, afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 mph will be likely.
MinRHs both days will be in the 5-10% range across the lower deserts to around 10-15% over higher terrain areas, with overnight recoveries between 20-40%. Winds during the latter half of the week will return to more typical seasonal trends with daily afternoon gusts up to around 20 mph and temperatures near normal.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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