Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 7:42PM Friday July 21, 2017 3:43 PM PDT (22:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 6:13PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 212039
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
139 pm mst Fri jul 21 2017

Update To aviation discussion...

Synopsis
Thunderstorm activity... Most numerous over the higher
terrain... Will continue through the weekend with chances expanding
into southeast california Monday. Drier southwesterly flow aloft
develops next week. This will lead to drier air and warmer
temperatures along with fewer storms region-wide.

Discussion
Today...

today looks much like yesterday with the best thunderstorm
chances over the mogollon rim. Storms have already begun to fire
over southeast arizona, and the mountains north and east of
phoenix. These storms are currently approaching northern maricopa
county and central gila county.

This morning, the goes-16 visible imagery showed embedded
circulations over northern arizona and new mexico with a healthy
dose of cloud coverage over the eastern half of arizona. Some
clearing through this morning and early afternoon have allowed an
increase in instability. The deepest plume of moisture could also
be seen in the water vapor imagery over eastern arizona and into
new mexico with additional embedded circulations. The moisture is
primarily being funneled into northern mexico via the stronger
high pressure sitting over arkansas to our east. The 250 millibar
analysis also indicates a weaker anticyclonic circulation sitting
over baja california with southwesterly flow and drier air aloft
protruding into our area. Sitting under the eastern flank of the
baja high, the steering flow for any storms will be from north to
south today.

The 12z sounding this morning for phoenix suggested plenty of
instability with 1500 mu-cape and nearly two inches of precipitable
water. The amount of moisture is still fairly deep this morning with
700 millibar dew points near 8 degrees. However, the temperatures
at the 500 mb level was borderline warm at -5 degrees , and model
soundings indicate a general warming trend of a few degrees at
this level which may make the atmosphere too warm for substantial
thunderstorms activity. We will have to wait and see...

given all of this, storm chances are probably best for eastern gila
county and other higher elevations. The gamut of high-res models are
pretty consistent in showing convection increasing greatly over the
rim through 21z but struggling to get much to survive into the
greater phoenix area, or any other desert location. However, there
is enough low level moisture to where outflow boundaries and other
local interactions could trigger a few storms over the lower desert.

Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing flooding
rains.

Saturday through Monday...

northeasterly flow aloft develops Saturday and slowly trends to
east and even southeasterly by Monday with anticyclonic flow
becoming centered over the great basin and then into colorado.

This is a favorable steering flow configuration for lower terrain
areas of central and western arizona and thus storm chances
continue. In fact, ensemble and deterministic model guidance
indicates that pops expand into california early next week with
associated moist advection. There may also be also be an inverted
trough the moves through to aid things. Hard to put a lot of
confidence in model forecasts of features like that this far out.

Tuesday through Thursday...

the westerlies dig southward along the coast next week leading to
a turn of drier southwesterly flow aloft. This will lead to a
downtrend in storm activity - even over the higher terrain. With
drier air, highs will increase but not to excessive levels.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
storms already underway over the higher terrain to the north and
east of phoenix, with overall storm motion moving from north to
south. Slightly more stable subsident airmass across western and
south-central arizona should work against widespread storm
development. Cannot rule out some isolated, short-lived activity
along the far eastern periphery of the phoenix metro. Most likely
directions for of the first outflow winds into the terminals would
be from the north-northeast between 02-04z. Some isolated
showers storms may develop once outflow breezes work across the
phoenix area tonight, warranting some vcsh coverage.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
more stable and subsident airmass will keep the threat for storms
east into arizona. Mostly clear skies to hold through the taf
period, with even the threat for storm top blow off low as storm
steering winds are southerly and jet level winds are westerly.

Winds to hold typical summer monsoon headings, southerly for kblh
with continued afternoon gustiness and southeasterly for kipl.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Sunday through Thursday:
thunderstorm chances expand into southeast california early next
week with east and southeast flow aloft. A less humid airmass is
expected to develop next week with storm chances becoming only
slight and limited to the higher terrain of south-central az.

Afternoon and evening breezes will be a bit stronger as well.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Deemer aj
aviation... Nolte
fire weather... Aj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi1.8 hrsS 9 G 147.00 miA Few Clouds104°F62°F25%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8
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1 day agoS10SW6SW6S11SW9S11SW8S9SW8S6S7S5SE7SE6SE7SE11SE10SE12SE12S11S9S10S74
2 days agoS7S15
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G17
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Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Fri -- 12:42 AM MST     2.16 meters High Tide
Fri -- 03:59 AM MST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM MST     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:54 AM MST     -3.37 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM MST     3.50 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:12 PM MST     Moonset
Fri -- 07:39 PM MST     -2.41 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 07:41 PM MST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.11.60.5-0.8-2.1-3.1-3.4-2.9-1.8-0.31.42.73.43.42.61.3-0.1-1.4-2.3-2.4-1.8-0.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:24 AM PDT     4.26 meters High Tide
Fri -- 04:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:41 AM PDT     -1.16 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM PDT     5.36 meters High Tide
Fri -- 06:12 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM PDT     -0.17 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.74.24.23.52.31-0.2-1-1.1-0.50.62.13.64.85.35.14.331.60.5-0.1-0.10.61.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.