Wednesday, June20, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
San Luis, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 7:47PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 12:12 PM PDT (19:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:00PMMoonset 12:52AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Luis, AZ
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location: 31.65, -114.58     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 201203
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
503 am mst Wed jun 20 2018

Update Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

High pressure will build across the region this week resulting in a
rapid warming trend with many lower desert communities exceeding
the 110 degree threshold both Thursday and Friday. Some cooling
is anticipated over the weekend as a weak low pressure system
passes north of the region. There are no signs of rainfall through
early next week.

A strong upper ridge, centered just off the northern baja ca coast,
has been slowly building and shifting inland into the desert
southwest; the recent 00z plots showed 594dm heights across southern
arizona. IR imagery at 2 am depicted clear skies area-wide. Model
guidance has been very consistent that the ridge will continue to
shift east and into arizona, and become centered over south-central
arizona by this evening with 500mb heights running around 594-595dm
over southern arizona. Very little changes through Thursday as the
ridge remains centered over central arizona. The result of the
strong ridge directly overhead will be very hot conditions, with
excessive heat possible over portions of the lower deserts. At this
time we will continue the excessive heat warning for Thursday and
Friday, although we do have slight reservations about just how hot
it will actually get on those days.

Latest efi (extreme forecast index)data for temperatures has most of
the CWA at less than the 90th percentile on Thursday and Friday, and
the naefs percentile data from the ensemble situational awareness
table is not overly impressive; although 500mb heights over
arizona far SE ca exceed the 97th percentile during the warning,
values at 850mb only reach a bit above the 90th percentile. Forecast
high temps for both days are well short of records - the forecasts
of 110-111 compare to records of about 116 for those days. Also, all
of the best performing temperature guidance from the latest model
run calls for highs to drop slightly with most of the hotter deserts
running about 110-111 with a few peaks near 112. The result of the
slightly cooler scenario is that heat risk guidance is not as
impressive and the areal coverage of high risk has been reduced a
bit. For now though we will keep the warning as is and not remove
any zones. Basically, forecaster confidence that we will see
excessive heat in all of the warned zones has gone down and is
moderate at best.

One final factor; on Friday the ridge starts to become suppressed
and shifted a bit to the south as short wave energy starts to pass
by to our north. 500mb heights over southern arizona trend slightly
downward, although it is possible that the boundary layer will
remain unaffected by the cooling taking place aloft.

Over the weekend, the aforementioned short wave drops to the
southeast and skirts by to the north of the four corners, bringing a
bit of a cooling trend to the area. High temperatures fall below
warning criteria Saturday and actually drop a bit below seasonal
normals Sunday as the high for phoenix falls to just 104.

For the remainder of the forecast, next Monday through Wednesday,
guidance calls for the ridge to rebuild back across the desert
southwest with 500mb heights again climbing into the 594dm ballpark.

As such we can expect another typical june warming trend with hotter
deserts approaching and maybe exceeding the 110 degree mark by next

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl and southeast
california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
no aviation weather concerns are anticipated through at least
Thursday morning. Light diurnal winds will prevail at all TAF sites
under clear skies.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
temperatures will peak Friday before readings drop back closer to
normal during the weekend. Another warming trend is expected early
next week as high pressure builds across the desert southwest.

Minimum afternoon humidity values will fall into the single digits on
Friday, then into the 10-20% range over the weekend and into early
next week. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair. Occasionally
gusty winds can be expected Saturday ahead of a weak area of low
pressure passing by to the north, but otherwise typical afternoon
upslope gustiness will be common during the period. There are no
signs of rain through early next week.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation will not be needed.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat warning from 10 am Thursday to 9 pm mst Friday
for azz540>546-548-550-551-556-560-562.

Heat advisory from 10 am Thursday to 9 pm mst Friday for azz563.

Excessive heat warning from 10 am to 9 pm mst Friday for azz532-

Ca... Excessive heat warning from 10 am Thursday to 9 pm pdt Friday
for caz561-566.

Excessive heat warning from 10 am to 9 pm pdt Friday for caz567-

Discussion... Cb
aviation... Hirsch
fire weather... Hirsch

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ70 mi76 minSSW 87.00 miFair93°F43°F18%1010.3 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr344W4--W7W7SW5S7S6S5S3SE6S4S5S4S3S3S5S4S7S8S8S9
1 day agoCalmNW5Calm5W84W5SW5S4S3CalmSW3W5SW6SW4SW4S6S4S5SW4S5Calm5S4
2 days agoS8S8S73W8W9NW9W13

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Wed -- 12:52 AM MST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:10 AM MST     -1.20 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM MST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:33 AM MST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:22 AM MST     0.73 meters High Tide
Wed -- 12:59 PM MST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:14 PM MST     -0.96 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM MST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:41 PM MST     1.48 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico
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San Felipe
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Wed -- 12:52 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:27 AM PDT     0.77 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 03:52 AM PDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:35 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:33 AM PDT     3.06 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:36 PM PDT     0.88 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:06 PM PDT     3.69 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.