Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 4:12 PM   Moonset 3:21 AM

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FXUS65 KPSR 191718 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1018 AM MST Sun May 19 2024

UPDATE
Updated Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
A weather disturbance will slide primarily north of the region early this week, but it will allow temperatures to retreat closer to the seasonal normal. This system will also bring an increase in winds, especially during the afternoon and evening hours with Monday having the strongest winds and greatest impacts. Very tranquil weather with near normal temperatures will prevail during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION
A Pacific upper level trough is gradually shifting southward across Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin with a much weaker southern branch shortwave trough now tracking through the Desert Southwest. The disturbance moving across our region will help to lower temperatures today several degrees from yesterday's highs in the lower 100s, while winds will become breezier over much of the area. The main forecast concern over the next couple days will be the increased winds combining with low humidities to create elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Wind gusts this afternoon and early evening are expected to easily reach into the mid 20s areawide to 30-35 mph across portions of southeast California. As the trough to our north continues to shift farther south, the gradient over our region will increase into Monday while another shortwave trough currently well west of southern California tracks through our region. Both of these features will enhance winds further with wind gusts Monday afternoon and early evening likely reaching 25-35 mph across south-central Arizona to 30-45 mph across the western deserts of southeast California through the the Lower CO River Valley. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of the area Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to trend downward on Monday with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s, or a couple degrees below normal. The broad troughing over the Western U.S.,including our region, should then persist through the rest of the week as several progressive shortwaves are forecast to track across the Northwestern U.S before sliding just to the north of our region.
This should keep upper level heights fairly stable over our region at between 574-578dm, or right around climatological normal for this time of year. This will keep seasonably dry conditions in place through the coming week with temperatures right around normal. Guidance is still suggesting we will eventually see a warming trend, but as of now that should hold off until around Memorial Day.

AVIATION
Updated at 1720Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Persistence of typical diurnal wind tendencies is expected through the TAF period at all terminals. Winds currently beginning their veer to the west/southwest. Typical late afternoon gusty westerly winds as high as 20 to 25 kts. Winds will subside mid evening with the typical durinal tendency back to east southeast overnight into early Monday. Some high clouds will begin to move into the area late tonight. Some thickening and lowering cloud bases expected toward 18z but still remaining above 12k feet.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will increase from the south-southwest with afternoon speeds increasing with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Some lighter winds overnight, before increasing again and becoming gusty again bu late Monday morning. SKC will prevail through this evening followed by FEW-SCT high clouds developing Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
A disturbance moving mostly north of the districts early this week will force temperatures to cool closer to the seasonal normal while also producing a period of strong, gusty winds. Throughout the week, minimum afternoon humidity levels will fall into the single digits at lower elevations and the teens across higher terrain areas. This will follow poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40%. Widespread wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph may be common Monday afternoon yielding an extended period of near critical thresholds when combined with low RH and dry fine fuels. Land managers should be cautious for rapid, uncontrolled spread of any ongoing fires or new starts Monday. Otherwise, afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph should be more representative the remainder of the week resulting in a slightly elevated fire danger.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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Sun -- 12:06 AM MST     1.95 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:20 AM MST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM MST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:19 AM MST     -2.29 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 12:35 PM MST     2.16 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM MST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:35 PM MST     -1.82 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM MST     Sunset
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El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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Sun -- 12:49 AM PDT     3.84 meters High Tide
Sun -- 03:21 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM PDT     0.08 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 01:19 PM PDT     4.02 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:11 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:20 PM PDT     0.45 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 PM PDT     Sunset
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San Felipe, Baja California Norte, Mexico, Tide feet

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