Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Midway, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:25PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:33 AM EST (09:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 11:05PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 412 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..E winds 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 412 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today. A storm system will affect the area tonight into Saturday. High pressure will then return early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Midway, GA
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location: 31.73, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 130547
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1247 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail through Thursday. A storm system
will affect the area Thursday night into Saturday. High
pressure will then return early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1245 am: high and mid level clouds will gradually increase
across the region through the rest of the night. The thicken
clouds should result in nearly steady temperatures across the
cwa through sunrise.

Previous discussion:
tonight: tranquil weather expected to persist as surface pressure
blankets the coastal carolinas and southeast ga. Evening satellite
imagery indicates fairly widespread but mainly thin high clouds
across the region and this trend should continue until daybreak.

We have seen inland temps dip quickly across sc and even some
areas of ga along and north of i-16 to near forecast lows already.

Since the opacity of cirrostratus will vary during the overnight
hours, we only nudged low temps down a degree or so inland areas,
but initialized cooler given the 02z obs.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday
Thursday: dry quiet weather conditions are expected for much of the
day within sfc high pressure gradually shifting northeast and off
the mid-atlantic coast well ahead of a mid-upper lvl trough of low
pressure digging over the south-central united states. Later in the
day, a weak coastal trough is anticipated to develop along the
coasts of florida and georgia, then lift north over the area by the
evening. A few showers will be possible during the evening, mainly
over southeast georgia and perhaps along the southern most locations
of the southeast south carolina coast. Temps will be fairly mild
under increasing cloud cover. In general, highs should peak in the
lower 60s, warmest south of i-16 in southeast georgia.

Thursday night through Saturday: a large trough of low pressure will
dig over the south-central united states and transition into a
cutoff low Thursday night into Friday morning over the deep south,
before slowly shifting over the southeast united states this
weekend. At the sfc, a weak coastal trough warm front will lift
north through the area Thursday night before the onset of greater
forcing and moisture advection ahead of an eastward advancing cold
front Friday. Strong isentropic lift and moisture advection over the
region will help produce widespread clouds and showers beginning
inland around daybreak Friday that spread toward coastal areas by
late Friday morning. Strong dynamical forcing associated with the
arrival of enhanced low mid upper lvl jets along with h5 shortwave
energy should produce precip in the form of a wide swath of showers,
some of which could be heavy rainfall producers as pwats increase up
to 1.75-2.00 inches Friday afternoon and evening. The bulk of precip
activity should then shift offshore late Friday night into daybreak
Saturday, but the mid upper lvl low will slowly meander inland,
suggesting rain shower chances through much of the day on Saturday.

Forcing and moisture supply associated with this low pressure system
suggest several areas experiencing upwards to 2-4 inches of total
rainfall accumulation across southeast georgia and southeast south
carolina this weekend.

Latest guidance also indicates slightly greater sfc instability
(mainly offshore) Friday evening night suggesting the potential for
a few thunderstorms as well as potentially stronger thunderstorms
along the immediate coast and offshore. However, a high degree of
uncertainty remains in the amount of instability given widespread
clouds and ongoing showers during much of the day Friday, followed
by the loss of diurnal heating Friday evening. Additionally, the
amount of separation between the sfc cold front and parent mid upper
lvl low to the west suggests FROPA and any convective activity that
develops being in a weakening state while shifting towards coastal
areas Friday evening. Although the overall severe weather threat can
not be ruled out, the risk will be very low along coastal areas
(more likely offshore over coastal waters). Temps will be mild
during the period. Thursday night and Friday night lows should range
in the mid upper 50s while high temps range in the mid upper 60s
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
There's a chance that some showers could linger into Saturday
night or Sunday if the ecmwf's slower and more southerly upper
low track verifies. Otherwise, dry weather with near-normal
temperatures will prevail under deep layered ridging.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High and mid level clouds will gradually increase across the
region through today. Winds are forecast to turn from the se
between 5-10 kts a high pressure slides over the western
atlantic and low pressure organize near the mississippi delta.

Low level lift and deeper moisture will spread across the
terminals late this evening. The potential for MVFR ceilings and
showers will increase during the final couple of hours of the 6z
tafs.

Extended aviation outlook: MVFR ifr conditions are likely at both
chs and sav terminals late Thursday night into Saturday morning
while widespread rain showers as well as a few thunderstorms occur
with a passing low pressure system.VFR conditions should then
return at both terminals by Sunday.

Marine
Tonight: a 1024 mb high will sit overhead, leading to fine
maritime conditions throughout. We generally expect SW winds
that are no more than 5 or 10 kt, and seas mostly at or below 2
or 3 ft. Winds along the land sea interface should be variable
below 5 kt.

Thursday through Monday: a weak coastal trough is anticipated
to lift north Thursday ahead of a low pressure system advancing
toward the southeast united states Thursday night into Friday.

Southerly winds and seas will increase build in advance of the
approaching system with conditions likely reaching small craft
advisory levels for most waters late Thursday night into early
Friday. Latest guidance also suggests some thunderstorms
developing over coastal waters late Friday and Friday night,
some of which could be strong until a cold front pushes through
the area. Small craft advisories should persist into Saturday
following fropa, mainly due to 6 ft seas. Small craft advisories
could linger in offshore georgia and northern south carolina
waters Saturday night. Winds seas should then improve early next
week as high pressure returns to the area.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ned
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 22 mi153 min Calm 42°F 1024 hPa (+0.0)41°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 27 mi33 min W 1.9 G 2.9 1025.1 hPa (+0.5)
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 29 mi43 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 58°F 58°F2 ft1024.3 hPa (+0.0)40°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA21 mi37 minW 510.00 miFair36°F32°F89%1024.7 hPa
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA22 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair35°F33°F94%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4CalmW3NW5NW7NW4NW3W5SW6S4SW6S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoNW6NW7NW7NW9NW10NW9NW11NW12NW11NW10W9W9W5W3W6W3W8W5SW7SW6SW5SW3W5W4
2 days agoNW5W6W6NW8W6NW9NW7W9W10NW9NW7W7W5W4W8W5W6W6W5NW6NW7NW8N8NW5

Tide / Current Tables for North Newport River (Daymark #119), Georgia
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North Newport River (Daymark #119)
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Thu -- 12:09 AM EST     6.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:36 PM EST     6.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.36.15.23.82.51.40.91.32.53.95.26.26.86.86.253.62.11.20.91.52.745.1

Tide / Current Tables for Thomas Landing, S. Newport River, Georgia
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Thomas Landing
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Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     6.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:58 PM EST     6.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:00 PM EST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:06 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.36.35.64.32.81.60.91.12.13.44.85.96.776.65.542.51.30.91.32.33.64.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.