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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 255 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Today - E winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Areas of fog early this morning. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 255 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast through much of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 020736 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 336 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
This morning: Satellite and observational trends supported the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for all counties through 10 am.
Calm winds, considerable moisture stuck underneath the subsidence/nocturnal inversion, and very favorable condensation pressure deficits has prompted this. Not all zones have the dense fog as of the time of this Area Forecast Discussion, but based on just about all guidance, the coverage of the dense will continue to expand.

For today: Strong ridging will prevail aloft, while the local zones are situated near the western periphery of the Bermuda- Azores High. Unlike yesterday, the sea breeze boundary is not expected to be active, given the subsidence aloft and minimal instability. Even though we lose about 2-3 hours of insolation due to the morning fog, the ridging aloft and 850 mb temperatures reaching near 15C will support another warm day.
The low level thickness has done very well the past few days, but with an east-southeast synoptic flow we didn't go quite as high as thew 1000-850 mb thickness implies. Even so, a blend of the MOS, NBM, and NBM50 was used to produce highs in the mid and upper 80s away from the beaches. A few places could hit 90F degrees across interior southeast Georgia.

Tonight: Very little change to the pattern surface and aloft.
Winds will quickly decouple this evening, allowing for good radiational cooling to occur. Actual lows will be similar to what they were early this morning. Subsidence aloft and considerable boundary layer moisture will again lead to fog developing after midnight. For now we show areas of fog all counties, but dense fog is likely, and another Dense Fog Advisory could be required. We included mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Shortwave ridging will persist Friday, though the ridge axis will move off the coast during the afternoon. Strong mid-level subsidence is expected to maintain dry conditions over the area, though we can't rule out a late day shower or thunderstorm far inland if something moves in from the west. Highs will be in the upper 80s except along the coast where prevailing onshore flow enhanced by an afternoon sea breeze keeps temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Increasing moisture and a series of shortwaves will move through Saturday through Sunday. Prevailing onshore flow should produce a robust sea breeze that will move inland fairly early in the afternoon both days. Scattered to numerous showers and tstms are expected, especially farther inland where the sea breeze interacts with greater instability. Although activity should wane overnight, the continuation of upper level energy moving through Saturday night could sustain at least isolated nocturnal convection. Highs both days will reach the low/mid 80s except near the coast where a marine layer will reduce temps.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Monday should again feature scattered diurnal convection given a weak shortwave moving through, coincident with moderate surface based instability. A strong subtropical ridge will build over the area Tuesday through late week, bringing dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures. Record high temps are not out of the question on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday and Thursday are expected to climb well into the 90s.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: All terminals will experience prevailing flight restrictions in stratus and fog through mid morning. KCHS and KJZI will even get down to LIFR and airfield minimums, while KSAV will at least drop to alternate airfield minimums. VFR will then prevail after about 1330-1400Z, with SE winds around 10-12 kt in wake of the afternoon sea breeze. But no convection will occur on that boundary as it moves inland. There will likely be some fog/stratus again tonight and this will be handled in later TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions possible in overnight/early morning fog and stratus. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Monday.

MARINE
Today: The local waters will remain near the western side of Atlantic ridging, resulting in light winds veering around to the NE this morning, then to the E-SE this afternoon. Even with local sea breeze enhancements, speeds will be no more than about 10 kt. Seas are just around 2 feet.

The concern will be in regards to fog. There is already quite a bit fog over land areas of South Carolina and Georgia, and some of this fog could impact Charleston Harbor, the Port of Savannah, and the nearshore coastal waters this morning.
Depending upon the coverage of any dense fog, we still might need to issue a Marine Dense Fog Advisory.

Tonight: The synoptic pattern is basically the same, and E-SE winds are again no more than about 10 kt, with seas only 2 feet throughout. As of this time with an onshore flow, fog is likely not a concern.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain benign conditions over the marine area Friday through Tuesday. SE winds early in the period will steadily switch to S and then SW. Wind speeds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas no higher than 4 ft. The pattern will favor a good sea breeze each afternoon along the coast, with winds in Charleston Harbor potentially gusting 15-20 kt at times.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052.
MARINE...None.

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