Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Midway, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 20, 2018 5:29 AM EDT (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 2:01AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 333 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Today..Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 333 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail into early next week, before a coastal trough of low pressure impacts the area by the middle of next week. Atlantic high pressure will then prevail during the second half of next week before a cold front potentially shifts into the area early next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Midway, GA
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location: 31.73, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 200814
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
414 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail into early next week, before a
coastal trough of low pressure impacts the area by the middle of
next week. Atlantic high pressure will then prevail during the
second half of next week before a cold front potentially shifts
into the area early next weekend.

Near term through today
Through sunrise: goes-e fog products and surface observations
show shallow ground fog has developed across parts of the
charleston tri-county area early this morning. Narre-tl guidance
along with the latest rap and h3r output favor areas of fog
through sunrise across dorchester and berkeley counties as well
as interior parts of charleston county (west of us-17) where
1000 hpa condensation pressure deficits are progged to be the
most favorable. Narre-tl dense fog probabilities are still
running 50-60%, but suspect any dense fog that develops will be
fairly localized given soil temperatures are still quite warm.

Visibility trends are being carefully monitored and the need for
a pre-dawn dense fog advisory can not be completely ruled out.

Today: mid-level heights will build today as subtropical high
pressure centered over the tennessee valley propagates east into
the carolinas. Rap soundings show a pronounced subsidence
inversion strengthening through the day. Despite low-level
moisture holding in place along the coast with the
strengthening onshore flow and subtle convergence noted along a
mostly pure sea breeze circulation, strengthening subsidence
aloft and k-indices in the single digits to teens should be more
than enough preclude the development of deep, moist convection.

A rain-free forecast will be maintained. The onshore flow
regime should yield highs a few degrees cooler than Wednesday
with most areas poised to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s
away from the coast.

Short term tonight through Sunday
Tonight: the onshore flow will strengthen further tonight in
response to high pressure shifting east off the north carolina
outer banks. This may promote a bit more in the marine-based
stratocumulus moving inland from off the atlantic, mainly after
midnight. The various guidance tends to overdevelop the amount
of nocturnal convection that typically develops in these regimes
so it is good to see that the 20 00z nam, GFS and ECMWF have
all have backed off on measurable rainfall chances along the
georgia coast for the late night early morning hours. Will go
with a dry forecast all areas with lows ranging from the upper
60s near 70 well inland to the upper 70s at the beaches and
downtown charleston. Could see a little shallow ground fog
develop well inland during the early morning hours Friday, but
the stronger onshore flow could limit its areal extent.

Friday through Sunday: a large mid-lvl ridge of high pressure
centered over the region Friday will slowly shift over the
western atlantic Saturday and Sunday. At the sfc, an axis of
high pressure extending from the northeast coast to the
southeast united states will maintain a hold over the region
this weekend, before gradually weakening Sunday in advance of a
front approaching the mid-atlantic states. The pattern should
favor rather dry conditions initially this weekend, with the
exception of a few showers thunderstorms near coastal georgia
and or the altamaha river as mid-lvl energy and moisture attempt
to drift onshore along the southern edge of the ridge axis
centered just to the north. By Sunday, a few showers and or
thunderstorms could drift further north and inland as high
pressure begins to weaken over land. Despite ample Sun and the
ridge aloft, a northeast-east sfc wind associated with sfc high
pressure should lead to overall high temps a degree or two
cooler than experienced earlier in the week. In general, highs
should range in mid upper 80s over southeast south carolina each
day while temps peak into the lower 90 degrees over inland
portions of southeast georgia.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Aloft, high pressure will be centered northeast of the area over the
atlantic through much of week. At the sfc, a front will attempt to
push south over the mid-atlantic states before stalling north of the
area on Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to
increase early in the week as pwat levels increase to around 2.0
inches south of the stalled front boundary. However, the bulk of
shower and or thunderstorm activity should arrive Tuesday and or
Wednesday as a wave of low pressure coastal trough shifts onshore. A
large mid upper trough of low pressure is then expected to shift
over the east CONUS by Thursday, helping force a cold front
southwest into the region by early next weekend. Given the setup,
chances of showers and thunderstorms could increase in coverage as
the front nears the area by early next weekend.

High temps will generally range in the mid upper 80s across
southeast south carolina through much of the week. Some areas could
touch 90 degrees across southeast georgia. Overnight lows should
range in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees inland to mid upper 70s
along the coast.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Kchs: main concern is fog prior to daybreak. Latest high
resolution guidance supports some fog developing at the kchs
terminal after 09z. Narre-tl probabilities support a mention of
prevailing MVFR and there is a possibility for lower
conditions, possibly to alternate minimums. Will hold any tempo
group to 3 sm and sct001 for now, but dense fog probabilities
are reasonably high (60-70%). Given warm soil temperatures are
in place, not ready to forecast conditions that low just yet.

The fog should lift by 13z withVFR prevailing thereafter.

Ksav: could see a little shallow ground fog prior to daybreak,
but no meaningful impacts are expected.VFR will prevail.

Extended aviation outlook:VFR conditions should prevail at both chs
and sav terminals through Monday. However, a few showers or
thunderstorms could produce tempo flight restrictions late this
weekend and or early next week, mainly at the sav terminal.

Marine
Today: an easterly flow regime will prevail today as surface
high pressure begins to push east of the north carolina outer
banks. After fairly light winds this morning, east winds will
increase to 10-15 kt during the afternoon hours. Seas will
average 1-2 ft nearshore waters and 2-3 ft offshore waters.

Tonight: east winds 10-15 kt will persist tonight as the high
shifts farther off the north carolina coast. Seas will build 2-3
ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore after midnight.

Friday through Tuesday: winds seas are expected to remain below
small craft advisory levels through Sunday with high pressure
dominating the pattern this weekend then slowly becoming centered
just north of the area early next week. Winds seas could then
approach marginal small craft advisory levels, especially over
offshore georgia waters, Monday night into Tuesday as the gradient
tightens between high pressure inland and a coastal trough shifting
onshore by midweek. Expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to
increase as the coastal trough shifts onshore. In general, northeast-
east winds should top out near 10-15 kt this weekend into early next
week before increasing to around 20 kt by Tuesday. Seas will
generally range between 2-4 ft, then build upwards to 4-6 ft,
highest in offshore georgia waters Monday and or Tuesday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 22 mi90 min NNW 1.9 77°F 1016 hPa (+0.0)75°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 27 mi54 min 78°F 83°F1016.5 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 29 mi40 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 83°F 85°F2 ft1015.5 hPa (-0.6)74°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SW4S5CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3----------N8NW4NE4N5N3
1 day agoSE4--------------------SW4S3CalmSW4CalmW6CalmW5SW4SE8----E4
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for North Newport River (Daymark 119), Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Florida Passage, Bear River, Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.