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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 123 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms early, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms late. Tonight - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and ne 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 foot at 5 seconds, becoming ne 3 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 6 seconds. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 123 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend. High pressure returns to our region next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 181814 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 214 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend.
High pressure returns to our region next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Since daybreak, a band of rain with rounds of thunderstorms has streamed across the forecast area. The rain and thick cloud cover has kept temperatures in the 70s, with a pocket of upper 60s across inland GA. The forecast area has been throughly worked over, SPC mesoanalysis indicated a large pool of CIN of 200-400 J/kg across the CWA A band of stratiform rain with occasional lightning will persist into the late afternoon. The risk for severe thunderstorms has passed, mention removed from the HWO. Temperatures could rebound a few degrees, but likely peaking in the 70s.

Tonight: Upper level trough settles into the region. The bulk of showers/storms is looking to diminish and move off the Atlantic Coast later in the afternoon into this evening, but there may be some additional sub-severe convection that percolates through the region through the course of the night as the upper trough settles in.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It'll slowly shift offshore into the evening and overnight. Meanwhile, a ridge will build in from the west. A cold front will be located just offshore in the morning, and moving away as time progresses. Surface troughing is expected to move over our region in the afternoon, then shift offshore into the overnight. Deep moisture will remain in place across the region with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range. These values are above the 90% mark per SPC sounding climatology for CHS. They're also about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. With all of the moisture and lift in place, models are in good agreement indicating scattered showers in the morning increasing to numerous or widespread showers by the afternoon. Temperatures should peak in the upper 70s or lower 80s, limited by the aforementioned showers. This will also limit instability. MLCAPE should peak around 1,500 J/kg, mainly across our GA counties. Lapse rates won't be that steep and 0-6 km bulk shear may only peak in the 15-25 kt range, which is not that strong. So while there should be some thunderstorms, the overall severe risk is low. Locally heavy rainfall will be a bigger concern given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. A relatively quick 0.5-1.0" is possible, so we can't rule out flooding in some areas. This could be exasperated if soils are saturated from Saturday's rainfall. Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity from west to east during the evening and overnight hours. Most locations should be dry by daybreak Sunday, except maybe the immediate coast. Lows should range from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a positively tilted trough just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, and a ridge just to our west. The ridge will slowly build into our area as time progresses. At the surface, High pressure centered well to our north will build down the coast, with it's southern periphery making its way into our area. The High will bring drier conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny/clear. Low-level thickness values support temperatures in the middle 80s. But we went a little below this due to the northeasterly surface winds and the expectation that surface evaporation should limit temperatures. Highs should peak in the lower 80s. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, while a ridge will prevail over the Southeast U.S. High pressure centered just to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses.
Though, it's southern periphery will continue to dominate our weather. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should rise to near normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid-level ridging will be over our region through Wednesday, followed by southwest flow on Thursday. A weak trough may pass to our north on Friday. Broad surface High pressure will stretch from just to our north into the Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday.
It's expected to shift offshore later Thursday. A cold front could approach from the northwest later Friday, possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be trending higher, reaching into the 90s by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/SAV: KCLX detected stratiform across the terminals, occasional lightning strikes observed near KSAV. It is possible that MVFR visibility during -TSRA may remain over KSAV into the mid-afternoon. Otherwise, KCHS and KJZI should see showers remain over the terminal into the mid to late afternoon. The challenge overnight will be the potential development of fog and/or MVFR ceilings. At this time, only the KSAV will indicated MVFR fog developing at 8Z and remaining through the rest of the night. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that MVFR stratus will develop at daybreak at each terminal, remaining through Sunday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A departing storm system could bring periodic flight restrictions on Sunday. VFR returns on Monday.

MARINE
A weak surface pressure pattern will maintain overall lighter winds (10 to 15 kt) and seas 2 to 4 ft across the coastal waters through tonight. That said, a period of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated later this morning and through the afternoon hours. Some strong storms will be possible which may produce locally strong winds and higher seas.

Extended Marine: Westerly flow early Sunday will turn to the NE and increase Sunday night. Wind gusts could briefly approach 25 kt late Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly over the Charleston County nearshore waters. But no Small Craft Advisories are anticipated. Winds should gradually ease later Monday. High pressure will continue to bring NE or E winds through Tuesday. Winds should then shift to the SE on Wednesday.
Seas will remain in the 2-4 ft range.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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