Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:25 AM   Moonset 5:48 PM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1242 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
This afternoon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds.Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Wed night - S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1242 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the southeast u.s. Through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 061745 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 145 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through mid week. A cold front will move through the region late week bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Midday update: Continuing to monitor trends. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/Kg MLCAPE across the region and minimal CINH. Spottier showers have developed, mainly across the tri-county region, but a lack of any stronger focusing mechanism. Convection may be becoming a bit more organized/focus from eastern Georgia into the SC midlands ahead of the short- wave trough. Recent HRRR runs have trended less bullish in precip coverage across the region this afternoon and it may take until some of the aforementioned convection to press in from the west to get a bit better coverage
Continuing to monitor

Previous discussion...
Morning composite analysis reveals short-wave ridging along the southeast coast and surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast. Pronounced short-wave trough extends from the Ohio Valley down through Alabama with the parent circulation rolling eastward through Tennessee and Kentucky. A few rounds of showers and some thunderstorms are also moving through the Tennessee Valley...extending into the South Carolina midlands. Across the CWA, relatively quiet at the moment with a modestly juicy air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s) across the South Carolina and southeast Georgia coastal areas.

Parent short-wave circulation will migrate toward the mid Atlantic with modest troughing edging into the Carolinas/ northern Georgia region this afternoon into tonight. Modest larger scale forcing for ascent in tandem with the developing sea breeze circulation should kick of sct-nmrs showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along with additional convection developing in central/eastern Georgia and into the midlands making a run toward the forecast area later in the day into the evening. 60-70 pops were maintained for the afternoon with decreasing chances along the coast

Strong-severe storm possibilities: Severe weather threat remains on the low side. Locally heavier rain is possible with slower moving convection. Diabatic heating will drive afternoon MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, locally higher along the sea breeze. But larger scale wind profiles will remain on the very marginal side through peak heating with 0-6Km bulk shear values climbing to around 20 knots while mid level lapse rates remain generally under 6C/Km. That said, a briefly stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out along a locally enhanced instability max or slightly backed low level flow with the sea breeze. Slightly stronger mid level flow will be spreading into the region this evening, although past peak heating/instability.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid-level ridging will briefly set up over the region Tuesday into Wednesday before becoming quasi-zonal Wednesday into Thursday. The Southeast U.S. will still be positioned on the western grip of Atlantic high pressure as a series of surface lows pass across the northern CONUS. Lingering moisture from a recent passing shortwave could result in the initiation of a stray isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze Tuesday. The forecast currently features POPs ranging 10-20% considering most locations will likely stay dry. Conditions will remain dry through Thursday morning with a mix of clouds and sun. The main focus during the short-term forecast period is on temperatures, with a couple of unseasonably hot days ahead. High temps will reach the upper 80s/low 90s Tuesday, rising to the low 90s both Wednesday and Thursday, with some locations reaching the mid 90s. Locations along the beach however will be cooler, topping out in the mid 80s. Record setting high temperatures are possible both days (see Climate section below). Dew points in the upper 60s will keep heat indices from reaching the 100 degree mark. Overnight, both Tuesday and Wednesday will be mild with min temps in the upper 60s/low 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front will push across the area Friday bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Guidance has trended the timing of the front slightly quicker, and now shows the potential for convection to spread in as early as Thursday evening and then potentially another round Friday afternoon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build bringing dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through Tuesday morning.

KCHS/KJZI: Scattered showers have developed in the tri-county area and will be impacting mainly CHS over the next several hours with a higher probability for thunder as well. Bulk of convection will likely remain inland from JZI through the afternoon.

At KSAV, a few showers are possible through the afternoon hours with a better risk for showers/thunder late this afternoon into this evening.

Precip coverage diminishes later this evening and overnight.
There could be some ground fog at the terminals toward morning, although fog probabilities are too low to include in the forecast for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Outside of a possible stray shower Tuesday, VFR conditions are expected through the week.

MARINE
At the sfc, the pattern will feature high pressure from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a warm front across the Ohio River Valley. This pattern should yield south-southwest winds across the marine zones. Speeds are forecast to favor values between 10-15 kts today and tonight. Seas should range between 2-3 ft through the near term period. Beyond 50 nm, seas may build to 4 ft late tonight across the outer GA waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain relatively benign conditions over the local marine waters.
Southeasterly winds in the morning will back slightly during the afternoon and evening hours each day as the sea breeze develops.
Winds will average 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Winds will increase Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible as gusts approach 25 kt, but look marginal at this juncture. By Saturday, winds will shift out of the north around 10 kt with seas dropping to 3 ft or less.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to high astronomical tides over the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including Downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides through Thursday.

CLIMATE
May 8: KCHS: 93/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Florida Passage
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     9.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florida Passage, Ogeechee River, Georgia, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:48 AM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:24 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:08 PM EDT     2.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:49 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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