Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montgomery, GA

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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 20, 2019 10:11 AM EDT (14:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 8:10AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 743 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 743 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A trough of low pressure will persist over the southeast through at least the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montgomery, GA
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location: 31.84, -81.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 201138
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
738 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will persist over the southeast
through at least the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Today: an approaching upper wave coupled with building deep
layered wind fields and moderate diurnal instability will pose a
risk for late day organized convection and severe weather
potential across our region. It appears the greatest chances for
damaging wind and large hail will congeal to our north in
association with the proximity of the short wave and more robust
upper forcing. Models indicate that a split in upper jet
segments will take place this afternoon which complicates the
forecast for our region. In the big picture, we did not stray
far from our forecast persistence with afternoon pops increasing
to 50-60 percent to the west of i-95. The fast upper winds
suggest many of the cam solutions may be slow, but the hrrr and
nssl WRF appear to be handling storm motions better late day.

Deep layered shear parameters indicate good potential for tstms
to organize into bowing line segments (perhaps cold pool) late
in the day but confidence on timing and areal extent is only low
to moderate between 4 pm and 6 pm when convection is expected
to be on the uptick. We raised temps a couple degrees in some
areas and expect breezy conditions at times this afternoon as
low level mixing deepens with steep lapse rates off the surface.

This evening: between 6 pm and 10 pm, we think our potential
for severe weather will likely peak but the extent of organized
convection is uncertain as there could be a split between storms
to the north of the area and developing storms somewhere along
the lower savannah river. Convective watches may be possible
with the main threats damaging winds and perhaps isolated
instances of large hail. Shear and instability parameters also
suggest isolated brief tornados cannot be ruled out, especially
at apexes of any bowing or comma structures.

Later tonight, conditions will improve with decreasing chances
for showers and tstms after midnight, lows in the lower to mid
70s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Friday: guidance depicts drier air spreading across the forecast
area from the north northeast. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower thunderstorm across far southern inland counties Friday
afternoon, but latest trends suggest that most, if not all,
locations should remain rain-free, so maximum pops are capped below
15 percent with no mention of diurnal convection. Above-normal
temperatures are expected to peak in the middle 90s at most
locations away from the beaches, and dewpoints in the 70s could
contribute to heat index values around 105f across far southern
counties. Thus, per our lower criteria prior to july 1, a heat
advisory could be required across SE ga counties mainly
south southwest of savannah. With continued rain-free conditions,
Friday night temperatures will remain in the 70s most areas and
could hold close to 80f on the beaches.

Saturday and Sunday: hot and humid conditions will prevail. High
temperatures should average in the middle 90s at most locations, and
dewpoints in the 70s will spread deeper into the forecast area. As a
result, maximum heat index values around 105f are possible at many
locations, and heat advisories could be required. Meanwhile, expect
greater coverage of convection, especially during the afternoon
evening hours both days. Afternoon evening pops average 30-50
percent, and MLCAPE values as high as 2500-3500 j kg suggest some
potential for brief isolated pulse severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Weak troughing at the surface and aloft will persist through at
least the middle of next week. Guidance continues to depict above-
normal temperatures. Interestingly, despite the trough, medium range
guidance suggests that coverage of diurnal convection could become
sparse next week, resulting in below-normal daily pops.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Periods of MVFR CIGS around the coastal corridor through mid
morning. Risk for tstms will increase at both kchs and ksav
late this afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing of the
tstms was terminals was slowly increasing, coverage not as
much, we introduced a prob30 at both sav chs airports between
21z and 01z.

Extended aviation outlook: mainlyVFR.

Marine
We have issued a SCA for the charleston harbor this afternoon
and evening as potential for frequent gusts in the mid 20 kt
range looks good, especially near the entrance. Otherwise we
have ongoing SCA for the remainder of the waters this morning
with a gradual ebb in speeds along the far southern sc and near
shore ga waters after mid morning. We are concerned that speeds
will increase again in these waters late day and this evening
but there is also a potential convection eventually scrambles
the synoptic flow. Late day and this evening, strong to severe
tstms could roll off the coast in some areas of sc or ga,
producing locally hazardous marine conditions. Overnight, the
low level flow remains strong and scas are possible across most
all of the waters. Seas will range from 3-5 ft within 20 nm
during this time with some 6 ft seas possible over outer ga
waters.

Friday through Tuesday: south to southwest winds and associated seas
are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through
this period. Seas as high as 4-5 feet to start Friday will settle
back to 1-3 feet much of the time through early next week. Winds
gusting as high as 20 knots Friday should remain mainly 15 knots or
less for the remainder of this period.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 11 pm edt this evening
for amz330.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for amz352-
354.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz374.

Near term...

short term... Spr
long term... Spr
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 19 mi60 min W 12 G 20 81°F 82°F1013.7 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 30 mi72 min WSW 15 81°F 1014 hPa (+2.0)76°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 34 mi82 min WSW 18 G 19 81°F 82°F5 ft1013.7 hPa (+1.6)77°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA13 mi76 minWSW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F74°F80%1012.8 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA21 mi19 minW 17 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F73°F70%1013.1 hPa
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA22 mi76 minWSW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F74°F78%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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--S8S6SE4SE3SE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE7

Tide / Current Tables for Florida Passage, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Florida Passage
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Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     7.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.66.75.33.61.90.60.20.92.44.25.76.56.55.84.63.21.80.80.51.22.84.66.27.2

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:42 AM EDT     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:35 PM EDT     -1.58 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:49 PM EDT     1.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.9-1.6-2-2.1-1.5-0.30.91.71.71.40.90.2-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.30.91.71.91.61.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.