Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butterfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:59PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 9:32 PM MDT (03:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butterfield, TX
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location: 31.85, -106     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus64 kepz 212055
afdepz
area forecast discussion
national weather service EL paso tx santa teresa nm
255 pm mdt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
If you are counting the number of windy days across the
borderland, add another for Wednesday. Unfortunately it won't be
the last one upcoming. Another pacific storm system approaches
Wednesday to bring more strong and gusty southwesterly winds and
areas of blowing dust across the region. Southwestern new mexico
will be under another wind advisory, while far west texas sees
strong winds, but falls just short of the speeds required. The
area will continue it's string of dry conditions through the rest
of the week. This means more clear skies than clouds. Each day the
upcoming weekend temperatures will to run at or above seasonal
averages. Winds will drop off Thursday through the weekend, but
still remain breezy these days, before the next strong wind event
arrives next Monday.

Discussion
At this point in the year, the current upper-level weather
pattern suggests we are running about a month and a half behind
the typical seasonal evolution from late winter to spring to
summer. Our deeply amplified wave pattern aloft, and southern jet
position are more typical of early spring offerings than mid-may
dominance as we are currently seeing. Boiled down to measurable
weather elements, it means generally dry, mild, and windy
conditions for our region. This forecast largely follows that
theme.

Yesterday's low pressure passage is out in the plains, but
a long wave mean trough remains carved out across the western u.S.

We sit in the base of this trough with a strong jet overhead, and
mean surface troughing to our east. The result is tight pressure
gradients and good daytime mixdown of strong winds aloft to make
for breezy to windy afternoon conditions for most days of this
7-day forecast package.

Wednesday we start a warming trend as we shift winds back to
southwest and keep dry air inbound across the region. The mean
western u.S. Trough remains through the work week and we see
another low pressure system swing by, well to our north, for
Thursday. A few more clouds for the gila but no pcpn expected. We
will see a minor pacific front passage to cool temps just a few
degrees. The pattern of deep southwesterly flow will continue to
keep our winds in the breezy category. With the surface trough
attempting to reposition over our eastern cwfa, the western cwfa
zones will see the highest winds, while the eastern cwfa (otero
lowlands and far west texas) possibly sees sub-breezy wind
conditions for fri- sun. With the surface trough shifting west
over the heart of our cwfa, we will also see the dryline drawn
west into far west texas and south central new mexico. Current
gfs, and to a lesser degree, the ECMWF indicate the dryline will
wash up against, and slightly intrude, our eastern boundary Friday
night into Saturday. Thus we do have slight pops in for hudspeth
and otero counties for this period. The gulf moisture should be a
very short-lived ingredient in our region, with it getting shoved
back east Saturday afternoon. However, it does linger nearby and
might try to reenter Saturday overnight into Sunday morning. We'll
watch that.

Monday and Tuesday of next week look like they could be a carbon
copy repeat of what we saw yesterday (this mon) and today (tue).

Another deep upper low will approach from the west and then lift
across the four corners region. This will again position a strong
jet over the area, and induce a deep lee surface trough to our
east. Strong pressure gradients and deep mixing will bring back
strong winds similar to what we saw yesterday. It will be a dry
passage. Thus winds and dust will be be main impacts.

14-bird

Aviation Valid 22 00z-23 00z...

vfr conditions prevail thru this period. The upper system that
affected the region yesterday is moving away, but we will still feel
its influence as windy conditions remain thru this evening.

Generally west to southwest winds with speeds between 15 to 25 kts
are expected thru 9z. Afterwards wind speeds should decrease between
10 to 15 kts with some gusty isolated locations. The approach of
another system will increase the intensity of the winds again
tomorrow after 18z.

29-crespo

Fire weather
Critical fire weather conditions continue over the next few days. An
upper level system that is leaving the area is responsible for
today's critical conditions, but an incoming system is responsible
for tomorrow's increased risk. More dry air is expected as the next
system tries to move into the region. Minimum relative humidity
values will be in the upper single digits and the lower teens in the
lowlands while the mountains continue in the upper teens and lower
20s over the next few days. While the winds will be around 15 to 25
mph, but stronger for the western zones with speeds in the range of
25 to 35 mph.

The winds intensity is expected to decrease on Thursday which will
prevent the development of fire weather conditions. However, it is
not by a lot. Humidity continues to be in the teens in most areas
late this week and the weekend. Early next week, we may again have
another chance for critical fire weather conditions as another
strong upper system moves in with dry air and windy conditions.

29-crespo

Preliminary point temps pops
El paso 60 88 61 84 0 0 0 0
sierra blanca 54 86 57 84 0 0 0 0
las cruces 50 81 53 79 0 0 0 0
alamogordo 52 83 54 79 0 0 0 0
cloudcroft 40 59 42 56 0 0 0 0
truth or consequences 51 78 54 75 0 0 0 0
silver city 45 72 46 65 0 0 0 0
deming 49 83 50 78 0 0 0 0
lordsburg 47 80 48 75 0 0 0 0
west EL paso metro 58 86 60 83 0 0 0 0
dell city 54 90 58 87 0 0 0 0
fort hancock 58 94 61 90 0 0 0 0
loma linda 55 82 58 79 0 0 0 0
fabens 57 90 61 86 0 0 0 0
santa teresa 54 84 55 81 0 0 0 0
white sands hq 57 83 61 80 0 0 0 0
jornada range 50 81 51 79 0 0 0 0
hatch 50 81 51 80 0 0 0 0
columbus 52 85 55 80 0 0 0 0
orogrande 53 83 56 81 0 0 0 0
mayhill 46 71 48 68 0 0 0 0
mescalero 44 69 45 65 0 0 0 0
timberon 42 69 43 66 0 0 0 0
winston 40 69 40 66 0 0 0 0
hillsboro 47 76 48 73 0 0 0 0
spaceport 48 78 50 76 0 0 0 0
lake roberts 39 72 40 64 0 0 0 0
hurley 44 75 44 69 0 0 0 0
cliff 40 79 39 71 0 0 0 0
mule creek 43 72 44 65 0 0 0 0
faywood 45 77 47 70 0 0 0 0
animas 49 81 47 77 0 0 0 0
hachita 48 81 47 77 0 0 0 0
antelope wells 50 81 48 79 0 0 0 0
cloverdale 47 74 47 71 0 0 0 0

Epz watches warnings advisories
Nm... Red flag warning until 9 pm mdt this evening for nmz111-112.

Red flag warning from noon to 9 pm mdt Wednesday for nmz111-112.

Wind advisory from noon to 9 pm mdt Wednesday for nmz402>411-
414>416.

Wind advisory until 7 pm mdt this evening for nmz414>416.

Tx... Red flag warning until 9 pm mdt this evening for txz055-056.

Red flag warning from noon to 9 pm mdt Wednesday for txz055-056.

14 29


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX20 mi1.7 hrsWSW 21 G 3310.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy76°F10°F8%997.9 hPa

Wind History from ELP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW26
G37
NW23
G36
NW23
G34
NW18
G28
NW17
G36
NW19
G30
NW22
G28
NW23
G30
NW25
G33
W28
G36
W25
G35
W15
G24
SW5NW4NW7W14
G22
SW18
G29
SW17
G28
W19
G30
W24
G32
W25
G31
W21
G30
SW20
G28
SW21
G33
1 day agoW11W11W12
G20
W13SW9W11W13W12
G24
W11
G21
W11W16
G21
W10W12W14
G21
SW15W10SW13W17
G24
W19
G24
SW13
G23
W27
G34
W31
G41
NW28
G39
NW30
G43
2 days agoW8NW8NW10W9W8W6SW8CalmSE6SE6SE5SE6S7S64S7SW6SW9S6S16
G22
W13
G18
W14
G20
W11W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station El Paso, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.