Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butterfield, TX
May 7, 2024 1:52 AM MDT (07:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:12 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 4:41 AM Moonset 6:44 PM |
FXUS64 KEPZ 070557 AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1157 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Warm and breezy to windy conditions continue through Wednesday.
Winds reduce some for Thursday. Eastern areas will see a slight chance for a thunderstorm starting Saturday into the weekend.
Elsewhere we will continue to see warm afternoons with some breezes.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Long wave trough continues to cover the western CONUS with a ridge east. UL jet is moving across the Desert SW, beginning to eject into the Plains. That means wind for us and a severe weather outbreak for them. If you know anyone who lives in the Central and Southern Plains, let them know they need to monitor the weather this afternoon and evening for the potential of a high-impact severe weather outbreak. For us back home, high fire danger and some patchy blowing dust are the impacts along with gusts around 40 MPH with higher in the mountain. This trough remains entrenched through the period, so we rinse and repeat for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be breezy each afternoon with gusts topping out around 40 MPH and some blowing dust, basically a repeat of today.
On Thursday, we remain at the base of the trough, but high pressure will move down the Plains inhibiting lee troughing, forcing the surface trough axis across Central and Western NM.
This will allow winds to decrease for Thursday as well as moisture to pool along the eastern border of our CWA Models continue to let some of this moisture push west on Friday before mixing east in the afternoon with a bit more robust intrusion on Saturday.
The Euro is more aggressive with the intrusion than the GFS.
Aloft, a s/w, the remnant of the same low giving us our wind today and the severe weather to our east, will move from UT on Friday, across the Four Corners, and into NM or CO by the weekend. If the moisture can remain in place, the added dynamics would help foster a few thunderstorms. If the system passes enough to the west, some attendant moisture with the system itself could also provide some storm chances on Sunday. For now, chances are pretty low and focused across the Sacramento Mountains. Models have been pretty bullish with these moisture intrusions, only for the solution to never materialize.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
VFR conditions will largely prevail through the day tomorrow. Expect generally SKC with some FEW250 and winds continuing to decrease tonight. Tomorrow afternoon will be another breezy day, similar to what we saw today. Dust could become an issue again tomorrow, but may just be hazy skies with less of a chance of the dust being concentrated and reducing visibilities.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Very dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to foster near critical to critical fire concerns through Wednesday. Tomorrow and Wednesday both look to see 20-foot winds top out around 18 to 23 MPH with min RH values dropping into the single-digits. Winds will be a bit weaker across the International Border. A Red Flag Warning remains in place for Tuesday with a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. An eventual upgrade to a warning is anticipated within the next 24 hours.
We see a reduction in wind for Thursday, bringing us out of critical concerns although min RH values will remain quite low. On Friday, moisture will try and push in from the east before retreating back to the east in the afternoon. Depending on how far west it moves, it will help with morning recoveries as well as afternoon values. East of the boundary, there will also be a slight chance for a thunderstorm, especially for the Sacramento Mountains.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 58 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 60 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 45 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 51 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 49 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 51 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 41 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 39 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 40 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 84 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 81 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ110>113.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ110>113.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1157 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Warm and breezy to windy conditions continue through Wednesday.
Winds reduce some for Thursday. Eastern areas will see a slight chance for a thunderstorm starting Saturday into the weekend.
Elsewhere we will continue to see warm afternoons with some breezes.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Long wave trough continues to cover the western CONUS with a ridge east. UL jet is moving across the Desert SW, beginning to eject into the Plains. That means wind for us and a severe weather outbreak for them. If you know anyone who lives in the Central and Southern Plains, let them know they need to monitor the weather this afternoon and evening for the potential of a high-impact severe weather outbreak. For us back home, high fire danger and some patchy blowing dust are the impacts along with gusts around 40 MPH with higher in the mountain. This trough remains entrenched through the period, so we rinse and repeat for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be breezy each afternoon with gusts topping out around 40 MPH and some blowing dust, basically a repeat of today.
On Thursday, we remain at the base of the trough, but high pressure will move down the Plains inhibiting lee troughing, forcing the surface trough axis across Central and Western NM.
This will allow winds to decrease for Thursday as well as moisture to pool along the eastern border of our CWA Models continue to let some of this moisture push west on Friday before mixing east in the afternoon with a bit more robust intrusion on Saturday.
The Euro is more aggressive with the intrusion than the GFS.
Aloft, a s/w, the remnant of the same low giving us our wind today and the severe weather to our east, will move from UT on Friday, across the Four Corners, and into NM or CO by the weekend. If the moisture can remain in place, the added dynamics would help foster a few thunderstorms. If the system passes enough to the west, some attendant moisture with the system itself could also provide some storm chances on Sunday. For now, chances are pretty low and focused across the Sacramento Mountains. Models have been pretty bullish with these moisture intrusions, only for the solution to never materialize.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
VFR conditions will largely prevail through the day tomorrow. Expect generally SKC with some FEW250 and winds continuing to decrease tonight. Tomorrow afternoon will be another breezy day, similar to what we saw today. Dust could become an issue again tomorrow, but may just be hazy skies with less of a chance of the dust being concentrated and reducing visibilities.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024
Very dry, warm, and breezy conditions will continue to foster near critical to critical fire concerns through Wednesday. Tomorrow and Wednesday both look to see 20-foot winds top out around 18 to 23 MPH with min RH values dropping into the single-digits. Winds will be a bit weaker across the International Border. A Red Flag Warning remains in place for Tuesday with a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday. An eventual upgrade to a warning is anticipated within the next 24 hours.
We see a reduction in wind for Thursday, bringing us out of critical concerns although min RH values will remain quite low. On Friday, moisture will try and push in from the east before retreating back to the east in the afternoon. Depending on how far west it moves, it will help with morning recoveries as well as afternoon values. East of the boundary, there will also be a slight chance for a thunderstorm, especially for the Sacramento Mountains.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 58 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 60 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 73 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 45 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 87 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 52 90 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 51 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 49 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 51 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 41 74 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 39 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 40 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 84 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 81 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 46 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for TXZ055-056.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ110>113.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ110>113.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBIF BIGGS AAF (FORT BLISS),TX | 20 sm | 57 min | NNW 02G13 | 7 sm | Clear | 72°F | 16°F | 12% | 29.96 | |
| KELP EL PASO INTL,TX | 20 sm | 61 min | NW 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 72°F | 16°F | 12% | 29.92 |
El Paso, TX,
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