Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butterfield, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:56PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:12 AM MST (16:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 7:38AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butterfield, TX
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location: 31.85, -106     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus64 kepz 201044
afdepz
area forecast discussion
national weather service EL paso tx santa teresa nm
344 am mst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
The borderland is off to a chilly start today as we say so long
to our most recent winter type storm. Despite plenty of sunshine,
temperatures will stay well below normal today. Meanwhile another
storm system will be gaining strength along the west coast and
heading our way. Rain and higher elevation snow will develop
across western parts of the area Thursday before moving east
across the region Friday. In the wake of this next storm system,
we will finally settle into a quieter and somewhat warmer weather
pattern starting late weekend and continuing into next week.

Discussion
A bit of winter's chill has settled over the region this morning
as Tuesday's brief snow maker has now ejected quickly into the
central plains with colder and drier northwest flow remaining in
it's wake. This will allow for ample sunshine throughout the day
today, but temps will still be several degrees below normal as we
remain under the influence of a broad western trough.

The upper flow quickly transitions over to southwesterly by
Thursday afternoon as yet another winter type storm is set to drop
into the southwestern united states. As of this morning, water
vapor imagery is already showing another strong jet coming off the
northern pacific and diving southward parallel to the west coast.

Models continue to show good agreement and consistency in this
jet streak carving out a closed low over southern california and
western arizona by Thursday afternoon. This will serve to tap into
a bit of additional moisture and bring it into the western parts
of the borderland Thursday. Previous model runs kept things
stationary until late Friday when the low finally began to lift
out. However, the past couple of runs are now hinting at a
slightly more progressive nature to this system, but not enough to
radically alter the forecast at this point.

As such, it still looks like a rain snow event for western zones
with the higher elevations of the gila receiving the bulk of the
snowfall late Thursday through Friday. 6" to 10" snowfall at the
highest of elevations is not out of the realm of possibility with
some lower elevations such as silver city seeing several inches of
accumulating snow as well. However the rest of the area will
likely see more wind than precipitation as the best chances for
precip elsewhere will be associated with a pacific frontal system
quickly sweeping past Friday afternoon and evening.

This somewhat more progressive solution allows for quick drying
over the weekend with temps getting back close to normal by
Sunday. This should be followed by several days of more tranquil
weather with temps at or a little above normal for much of next
week as the active storm track shifts back to our north for a
while.

Aviation Valid 20 12z-21 12z...

mostlyVFR conditions are expected through the period. Skies will
remain mostly clear with only high level clouds passing through.

Winds will be generally from the west at speeds of 10 to 15 kts
during the afternoon hours.

Fire weather
Drier air has filtered into the region and will result in lowland
min rh values close to 15 percent this afternoon. However winds
are not expected to reach critical thresholds, thus limiting any
fire weather concerns in the short term. Winds will be picking up
Thursday as another storm system approaches, but the strongest
winds will be located across western zones where min rh values
will be just a bit higher due to additional moisture arriving in
advance of the storm. So once again critical fire weather
conditions will be avoided.

Meanwhile, this next system will manage to produce a fair amount
of wetting precip across western zones, the gila region in
particular, where lower elevation rainfall and higher elevation
snow will be common Thursday through Friday. Chances for wetting
precipitation will be spreading eastward as a cold front sweeps
across the area Friday, however overall precipitation amounts will
be lower for central and eastern fire weather zones. Temps look to
stay a bit cooler than normal until after the passage of this
system with warmer and drier conditions returning for late weekend
and early next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
El paso 51 30 60 38 0 0 0 0
sierra blanca 49 28 60 35 0 0 0 0
las cruces 49 26 56 37 0 0 0 0
alamogordo 48 26 57 36 0 0 0 0
cloudcroft 28 16 36 24 0 0 0 0
truth or consequences 48 23 52 36 0 0 10 20
silver city 40 22 44 33 0 0 40 60
deming 48 21 55 34 0 0 0 20
lordsburg 46 22 50 35 0 0 30 50
west EL paso metro 50 31 59 38 0 0 0 0
dell city 53 24 64 33 0 0 0 0
fort hancock 55 30 67 37 0 0 0 0
loma linda 46 28 55 35 0 0 0 0
fabens 52 29 63 37 0 0 0 0
santa teresa 49 26 57 35 0 0 0 0
white sands hq 49 30 57 38 0 0 0 0
jornada range 49 23 55 33 0 0 0 0
hatch 50 23 55 36 0 0 0 10
columbus 51 26 57 37 0 0 0 0
orogrande 49 24 57 33 0 0 0 0
mayhill 40 21 49 31 0 0 0 0
mescalero 36 19 44 29 0 0 0 0
timberon 36 17 44 27 0 0 0 0
winston 42 13 44 28 0 0 30 50
hillsboro 48 21 51 33 0 0 20 30
spaceport 49 21 53 33 0 0 0 10
lake roberts 37 15 44 27 0 0 40 70
hurley 42 19 47 32 0 0 30 50
cliff 44 16 49 32 0 0 50 70
mule creek 40 21 44 32 0 0 70 70
faywood 44 22 47 33 0 0 20 30
animas 48 23 52 37 0 0 10 40
hachita 48 19 53 34 0 0 0 20
antelope wells 51 23 54 35 0 0 0 10
cloverdale 45 25 47 36 0 0 10 30

Epz watches warnings advisories
Nm... None.

Tx... None.

27-laney


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
El Paso, El Paso International Airport, TX20 mi22 minS 410.00 miA Few Clouds36°F15°F42%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from ELP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmS11W12
G16
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W16W14W12W15
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N93NW6NW10NW9S5S3S4
1 day agoCalm3E6S8S9
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S6S7E14E12E9E74CalmE12E5E5E5E8NE6E5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW11W5CalmSW14
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NW8NW8W10W14NW8NE4NW5N4NW5SE4SE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station El Paso, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.