Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skidaway Island, GA

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Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:28PM Sunday July 22, 2018 3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:22PMMoonset 1:34AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 128 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 15 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 128 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. An upper disturbance will move through the area tonight. Low pressure will develop over the region late Sunday, and persist until the middle of next week before dissipating. Atlantic high pressure is expected to build from the east across the region by late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skidaway Island, GA
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location: 31.91, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 220552
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
152 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
An upper disturbance will move through the area tonight. Low
pressure will develop over the region late Sunday, and persist
until the middle of next week before dissipating. Atlantic high
pressure is expected to build from the east across the region
by late week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 140 am: the remnants of a MCS will push over the inland sc
counties over the next half hour. A outflow boundary was clearly
seen on kclx. New updrafts were developing along the boundary,
tapping a field of weak normalized CAPE of 0.1. Near term
guidance have not handled this activity well. However, the cool
pool was tracking well to the east. I will limit chc to schc
pops to cover the passage of the boundary.

Previous discussion:
the forecast philosophy has not changed significantly over the
past few hours. Storms moving into central georgia have been
weakening as they encounter strong convective inhibition (cin)
left in the wake of the mesoscale convective system (mcs) that
pushed through georgia earlier in the day. Farther north,
stronger storms are continue to flourish across the south
carolina upstate within a better corridor of mixed-layer
instability, lower CIN and upper forcing associated with
shortwave energy rounding the base of the mean long-wave trough.

Water vapor imagery suggests the best forcing should occur
across central and eastern south carolina over the next few
hours, but convection remains rather far to the west. With deep-
layer forcing and bulk shear weakening after midnight and cin
increasing with time with the loss of insolation, the window for
any type of organized severe weather this far to the southeast
is quickly ending. Plan to lower pops to 20-30% with the late
evening, highest north of an allendale-hampton-hunting island
line and remove mention of severe tstms from the hazardous
weather outlook. Lows from the lower 70s well inland to around
80 at the beaches look good.

Short term 6 am this morning through Tuesday
An unsettled pattern is expected through this period as a deep upper
trough low and surface low settle southward across the SE u.S..

Chances for precipitation are expected to be above normal for much
of the period, while maximum temperatures will likely be a little
below normal due to upper troughing, cloud cover and higher coverage
of convection.

Sunday: current model forecasts indicate that Sunday might have
the lowest coverage of convection with lower deep layer rh values
moving in for at least part of the day. There is a hint of afternoon
sea breeze induced convection, and then possibly more later in the
day evening from the west given the upper low settling into the
region. SPC does indicate a marginal risk for severe storms over the
extreme south, but confidence and aerial extent too low at this time
to put into grids or hwo.

Sunday night through Tuesday: it is very difficult to pin down any
one period where pops will be higher than another. At this time, it
seems most logical to center highest pops each day during peak
heating afternoon given the upper low just to the west. Also, with
deep southerly flow and ample deep layer moisture, there will be an
increased potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. The
heavy rainfall threat might be highest over the charleston tri-
county region where a surface trough low level convergence zone sets
up. Have kept generally likely pops for each afternoon, and then
high end chance to low end likely during the night.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
The upper trough across the eastern united states will gradually
weaken Wednesday into Thursday as it lifts northeast. A deep
layered atlantic ridge will then build in from the east,
resulting in a somewhat drier pattern with more typical diurnal
convection.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
The remnant of a MCS will track near kchs through the pre-dawn
hours, I will carry a vcsh between 7z-10z. Otherwise, kchs and
ksav should remainVFR with light SW winds. Broad mid level low
will settle over the southern appalachians today. A least
scattered CU should develop across the region this afternoon,
bases around 5 kft. A few thunderstorms could pass near or over
the terminals late this afternoon and evening. I will highlight
with a prob30 between 22z to 2z.

Extended aviation outlook:
Monday through Wednesday: a deep upper trough will settle just
to the west with ample moisture and forcing to produced
scattered to numerous shower thunderstorms each
afternoon evening. Expect periodic flight restrictions during
this period.

Thursday: the upper trough weakens and the area likely returns to
more scattered afternoon convection.

Marine
Tonight: southwest winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Will have to
watch upstream convection for any impacts to mainly the
charleston county waters, but current indications are they this
activity will dissipate before reaching the coast.

Sunday through Thursday: the waters are expected to sit between
deep low pressure over the land to the west and higher pressure
well to the east. This will result in a pressure gradient that
can support 10-20 knot southerly winds and seas generally 3 to 5
feet. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken by Thursday
as the deep low pressure center dissipates. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible through at least
Wednesday, then possibly becoming more scattered by Thursday.

Models are indicating that the persistent southerly flow could
generate seas of 6 feet by later Monday through at least
Wednesday, mainly beyond 15-20 nm offshore. Thus, small craft
advisories may be needed for portions of the offshore by later
Monday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term...

aviation... Ned
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 12 mi37 min WSW 6 G 8.9 76°F 84°F1010 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 36 mi61 min SW 12 76°F 1010 hPa (-1.0)74°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 37 mi71 min SSW 18 G 23 80°F 84°F3 ft1009.6 hPa (-1.7)75°F
41033 43 mi53 min WSW 16 G 23 81°F 84°F1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi65 minSW 510.00 miFair75°F70°F86%1009.4 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA18 mi68 minSSW 510.00 miFair75°F71°F88%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4W4CalmCalmCalmW4CalmW3W6SW5S7SW6W9W10W5W5W3CalmSW4S3S6SW7SW5
1 day agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW5W4SW6SW6SW7S4W7S14
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2 days agoSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmSE3NE5SE9SE9SE9SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for Vernon View, Burnside River, Georgia
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Vernon View
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Sun -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:07 AM EDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:54 PM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.93.55.16.476.65.64.22.61.20.40.51.42.94.76.47.57.87.46.34.831.5

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Sun -- 02:13 AM EDT     1.78 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM EDT     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:38 PM EDT     2.04 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:04 PM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.41.81.71.30.6-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.8-1.7-10.31.4221.81.40.5-0.6-1.4-1.9-2.2-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.