Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Skidaway Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday April 21, 2018 7:11 PM EDT (23:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 657 Pm Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers.
Mon..SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 657 Pm Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Cool and dry high pressure will prevail into Sunday. A low pressure system will approach the area Sunday night and will then slowly move up the coast through the middle of next week. Weak high pressure will return late next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Skidaway Island, GA
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location: 31.91, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 211949
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
349 pm edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
Cool and dry high pressure will prevail into Sunday. A low
pressure system will approach the area Sunday night and will
then slowly move up the coast through the middle of next week.

Weak high pressure will return late next week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The mid-levels will consist of a ridge moving over the
southeast while a cut-off low moves towards the ARKLATEX area.

At the surface, broad high pressure will generally be located
east of the great lakes region. Another somewhat weaker high
should be over the outer banks of nc during the first part of
the night. This high will be absorbed into the main high as the
night progresses. Meanwhile, low pressure forming near the
arklatex area will move eastward. But the southern periphery of
the high across our area will continue to give us dry weather
overnight. It should be noted that models try to bring some
light showers towards the altamaha around daybreak. But they
appear to dry out as they get closer. Clouds will increase
overnight, with the majority being over ga. Lows will be
moderated somewhat by the clouds, generally falling into the
50s, except around 60 at the beaches.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Tuesday
Sunday: expect a transition day as the shortwave ridge aloft breaks
down and shifts eastward with the arrival of a deep upper low into
the lower mississippi valley. High pressure will continue to extend
into the region, though moisture will steadily deepen through the
day with increasing clouds. There could even bee isolated to
scattered showers through the day within the onshore flow if there
is enough low level convergence. We continue to advertise rain
chances in the 20-30 percent range. Highs are expected to be around
70 across the area, upper 60s at the beaches. Also, expect another
breezy afternoon closer to the coast with gusts into the 20-25 mph
range possible.

Sunday night and Monday: overall, not much change to the forecast
thinking during this time period. Deep moisture will stream into the
region with precipitable water values expected to surge past 1.5
inches, which would be at or above climatological maxes. Deep
forcing will spread across the region as the 300 mb jet noses in
from the west, coincident with low level convergence and isentropic
ascent. Coverage and intensity of precipitation should ramp up late
Sunday night and continue through much of Monday. Rain chances
steadily increase and reach 100 percent everywhere by Monday
morning. There remains a chance of thunder, mainly with elevated
instability, and it has been maintained in the forecast.

The ingredients for a widespread heavy rainfall event are certainly
in place, but there is just enough model inconsistency to create
some forecast uncertainty. Models are showing run to run differences
with where the heaviest rainfall occurs, based on how convection
over the coastal waters spreads onshore in the southeasterly flow.

The forecast continues to feature widespread 2-3 inch amounts, with
a bullseye of 3-4 inches along the south carolina coast. However,
depending on exactly where the most active feeds of convection set
up, there could be tighter amount gradients and shifts in where the
highest lowest amounts occur. The concern for flooding remains on
the low end due to the fact that much of the area is in a severe
drought (national drought monitor) with significant rainfall
deficits for 2018. Since the start of the year, almost the entire
forecast area is 4-6 inches below normal with some areas more than 6
inches below normal. Specifically (through 4 20), kchs is 4.44 below
normal and ksav is 7.12 below normal. So, a widespread rain would be
very welcome and we likely have enough capacity to take on a lot of
water with minimal flooding concerns.

Monday night through Tuesday: the bulk of precipitation will come to
an end from southeast to northeast Monday night as the moisture feed
shifts downstream of the forecast area. We could still see some
showers on Tuesday as the trough sits across the area and 500 mb
temperatures fall within the trough. Model response only seems to
warrant 20-30 percent chances at this time. We could even see enough
sun to allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s on
Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Mid level troughing will persist over the eastern u.S. Through late
week. At the surface, an area of low pressure will slowly lift
northeast up the coast Wednesday into Thursday. There are some
discrepancies in the models thereafter, but it appears that a cold
front could be approaching the forecast area closer to the weekend.

Rain chances will remain fairly low through the period with no more
than 20% in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will be near
normal.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
18z tafs:
chs...VFR. Gusty east winds will diminish around sunset.

Sav... Gusty east winds will diminish around sunset.VFR through
~15z Sunday, then MVFR due to lowering ceilings. The shower
threat increases late in the taf, but confidence was too low to
include it at this time.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions in reduced
ceilings and visibilities are expected Sunday night into at least
Monday night. Gusty winds expected on Monday.

Marine
Tonight: a broad area of high pressure will persist to our
north while low pressure forming near the ARKLATEX area moves
eastward. The interaction between these two features will
maintain easterly winds across the waters. Expect winds to be
gusty early in the evening, then easing around sunset. The
pressure gradient is expected to be a bit more elevated across
our ga waters, leading to slightly higher winds there. As a
result, the small craft advisory will remain up for amz374 due
to winds and seas.

Sunday through Thursday: high pressure will remain in place on
Sunday with enough enhanced gradient to produce elevated east to
east-northeast winds. Speeds should generally top out in the 15-20
knot range, but could be marginally supportive of small craft
advisories. Winds will then increase through Sunday night as a
surface low to the west develops, and small craft advisory
conditions become more certain. Once advisories are up beginning
Sunday night, they will likely be in place for most, if not all of
the waters, through Monday night Tuesday. The main period of
interest will come on Monday when a surge of southeasterly flow is
anticipated which could bring a period of gales. The best setup will
be across the charleston county waters and the outer georgia waters,
and this will be added to the hazardous weather outlook. The
gradient will begin to relax Monday night, and the surface low will
move to the northeast on Tuesday. Conditions will improve but
elevated seas could linger a bit longer. The local waters will then
be headline free through the rest of the period.

Rip currents: Sunday conditions will be quite with onshore flow
in the 15-20 knot range, with gusts to around 25 knots at
times. This elevated onshore flow, combined with modest swell,
will result in a moderate risk of rip currents at all beaches.

The chance for an elevated risk of rip currents will then continue
into the early week time period due to strong onshore winds and
larger surf.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for amz374.

Near term...

short term...

long term... Ect
aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 12 mi41 min ENE 17 G 22 64°F 65°F1025.6 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 36 mi71 min ENE 11 67°F 1024 hPa (-1.0)63°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 37 mi81 min ENE 12 G 14 66°F 65°F5 ft1024 hPa (-0.7)60°F
41033 43 mi63 min ENE 16 G 23 63°F 64°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA10 mi15 minENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F53°F63%1024.7 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA18 mi18 minE 1110.00 miOvercast67°F53°F61%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E6NE4NE5NE4NE5NE4CalmCalmNE7NE6NE4N5NE7NE10NE10
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1 day agoW6NW12
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2 days agoS6S5S6SW8SW6SW6SW6SW10SW11W12SW8SW9SW9SW11W13
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Tide / Current Tables for Vernon View, Burnside River, Georgia
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Vernon View
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Sat -- 12:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:23 AM EDT     8.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:44 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:03 PM EDT     7.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.78.58.47.45.73.71.80.50.212.54.25.76.87.26.85.742.20.80.20.72.24.1

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:09 AM EDT     -2.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:54 AM EDT     1.76 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:34 PM EDT     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:23 PM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.10.2-0.9-1.9-2.2-2.1-1.6-0.60.61.51.81.51.10.6-0.3-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.80.51.62.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.