Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Wellton Hills, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:48PM Saturday March 17, 2018 9:19 AM MST (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:02AMMoonset 7:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wellton Hills, AZ
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location: 31.95, -113.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 171553
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
853 am mst Sat mar 17 2018

Synopsis Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures today. A
cold front will then bring scattered showers late tonight into
Sunday morning. Snow showers will also occur across mountains north
of tucson. Expect cooler temperatures Sunday followed by a strong
warming trend through midweek.

Discussion Clear and dry for most of our area today, as a
southwesterly flow increases once again ahead of a strong regional
trough digging deeper into the great basin. Winds increasing
during the day today, but remaining below wind advisory levels and
critical fire weather parameters. Temperatures pretty close to
average with dew point trends up a few degrees over the past 24
hours. A look at current analysis and 12z model output says steady
as she GOES with the system impacting the area tonight into Sunday
morning. The associated cold front should push from west to east
through much of our area between 2am and 9am, with best precip
chances just ahead of and with frontal passage. With no updates,
please see the previous discussion below for additional details.

Aviation Valid through 18 18z.

Isolated -shra developing mainly west to north of ktus during the
06z-12z period Sunday, or late tonight. Otherwise, clear skies
most sections until around 17z-19z today. Expect few clouds 6k-10k
ft agl and sct-bkn clouds above 15k ft agl this afternoon and
evening, cloud decks then lowering to around 5k-9k ft agl late
tonight. Surface wind this morning generally sly swly 5-15 kts
increasing to 10-18 kts with gusts near 25 kts this afternoon.

Surface wind tonight swly 5-15 kts with gusts near 25 kts,
strongest speeds vicinity kfhu. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Isolated showers to develop mainly west to north of
tucson late tonight, then scattered valley rain and mountain snow
showers across much of the area Sunday morning. Clearing from the
west Sunday, then dry conditions Monday through Thursday. There
is a slight chance of showers next Thursday night with showers
ending early Friday. Expect gusty southwest winds this afternoon
and in favored southwest wind prone areas such as sierra vista
tonight, then gusty west to northwest winds Sunday. 20-foot winds
will mainly be less than 15 mph Monday into Wednesday. Gusty
southwest afternoon winds to return next Thursday and Friday.

Prev discussion Expect clearing skies to generally continue
during the next several hours, but clouds will increase later
today as the upper trough digs southward into southern california.

A tightening mid- level gradient will support gusty southwest
winds this afternoon, but wind speeds will remain below advisory
criteria. Gusty southwest winds will continue tonight especially
in favored southwest wind prone locales, most notably the huachuca
mountains near sierra vista.

The 17 00z nam12 gfs ECMWF were quite similar with depicting the
mid upper level trough axis and associated cold frontal boundary to
move eastward across this forecast area later tonight and Sunday
morning. These solutions have trended slightly slower with the onset
and ending of valley rain mountain snow showers versus solutions
from 24 hours ago.

Have noted a markedly drier trend via the 17 00z univ of az wrf-nam
and wrf-gfs versus their respective solutions from 24 hours ago. If
the wrf-nam and wrf-gfs are reality, then measurable precip would be
confined to Sunday morning, and just to the white mountains. For
this forecast issuance, these solutions were generally discounted,
but slight downward adjustments were made to the inherited pops.

At any rate, have maintained precip-free conditions across southeast
arizona into this evening, then have opted for isolated showers
mainly west to north of tucson late tonight. Am still expecting
scattered to numerous valley rain mountain snow showers Sunday
morning mainly from tucson northeastward to the white mountains.

Precip-free conditions should occur Sunday morning across western
pima county, and perhaps across far southeast cochise county.

Stronger westerly flow aloft will lead to a rapid ending of precip
by Sunday afternoon, although lingering moisture should be
sufficient for a slight chance of snow showers across the white

Appears that rainfall amounts at lower elevations will mostly be
less than one tenth of an inch, and about 0.10" - 0.35" liquid
amounts for mountains from near tucson northeastward to the white
mountains. Snow accumulations of 1-3 inches should also occur across
the highest peaks of the white mountains, mount graham and the
catalina rincon mountains near tucson.

After precip ends Sunday afternoon, expect dry conditions Sunday
evening into Thursday. Ridging aloft will move eastward across the
area Wednesday, then southwesterly flow aloft to strengthen Thursday
ahead of the next deepening upper trough. There were differences
between the gfs ECMWF regarding precip potential next Thursday into
Friday, with the GFS faster and at times wetter than the ecmwf.

Thus, forecast confidence at this time is fairly low regarding
precip detail for late next week. Have opted for a slight chance of
showers Thursday night, and dry conditions across much of the area
next Friday. This scenario is likely to change during the next few
days or so.

Seasonably mild temperatures to continue today, then about 5-10
degrees of cooling most sections Sunday. A strong warming trend is
on tap Monday through Wednesday followed by temperatures lowering
closer to seasonal normals by next Friday.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

Meyer francis
visit us on facebook... Twitter... Youtube... And at weather.Gov tucson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Yuma, Marine Corps Air Station, AZ63 mi82 minS 47.00 miFair52°F37°F57%1015 hPa

Wind History from NYL (wind in knots)
Last 24hr5NE4NW7W6W5SW3--W8SW7SW6W10NW9NW8W9NW5W7W5NW4NE4CalmCalmCalmS4W4
1 day agoS10SW7
2 days agoNW12

Tide / Current Tables for El Golfo de Santa Clara, Sonora, Mexico
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El Golfo de Santa Clara
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Sat -- 02:21 AM MST     3.27 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM MST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:45 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:28 AM MST     -2.92 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:27 PM MST     2.90 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:47 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:11 PM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:32 PM MST     -3.19 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Penasco, Sonora, Mexico
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Puerto Penasco
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Sat -- 02:01 AM MST     4.84 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM MST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:40 AM MST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:59 AM MST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM MST     -0.53 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:10 PM MST     4.55 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 PM MST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:06 PM MST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:11 PM MST     -0.79 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.