Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 6:24 AM   Moonset 9:22 PM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 446 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds, becoming S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms likely early this evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds, becoming sw 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Showers and tstms. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: sw 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds, becoming nw 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: nw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 6 seconds and ne 1 foot at 6 seconds. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: nw 1 foot at 2 seconds and ne 1 foot at 6 seconds. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Mon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 446 Pm Edt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A cold front will approach the area tonight, then move offshore Friday. High pressure will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 092055 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 455 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach the area tonight, then move offshore Friday. High pressure will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Radar indicates the line of strong thunderstorms has moved off our coast and the severe threat has come to an end. The tornado watch has been dropped. Though, we expect another 1-2 hours of stratiform precipitation for some locations, especially along the coast, followed by clearing this evening. The rest of the night should be dry. However, a second MCS will arrive from the west after the pre-dawn hours Friday morning. Temperatures are expected to remain nearly steady around 70 degrees tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
The forecast for Friday is quite tricky. A quasi-zonal flow will persist aloft, though we will see several potent shortwaves ripple through the area during the day. Given the high theta-e airmass across the Southeast, ample instability should be in place to support convective development with these upper vort maxima. Furthermore, the presence of 50-60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear will favor organization of the convection once it become established. Most of the guidance continues to indicate the most impressive shortwave will move through southeast SC/GA between 15Z and 18Z.

There is surprising agreement between the synoptic models and the CAMs that a large area of showers and thunderstorms will move across the forecast area between 9am and 3pm Friday. It appears that an MCS could be ongoing across south central GA at daybreak that then pushes east through our area. Thus, the greatest coverage of convection would occur over our southeast GA zones. This is also where the strongest convective indices are expected, so our primary focus for severe weather potential is in southeast GA and extreme southern SC. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat assuming the convection becomes organized into a line. Isolated large hail or tornadoes can never be completely ruled out. Farther to the north in SC, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through, but extensive cloud cover in the morning and less available instability should reduce the overall severe weather potential.
Rainfall totals on Friday will range from 1-1.5" in southeast GA and 0.5-1.0" in southeast SC.

The brunt of the convection is expected to be off the coast by 3pm. A secondary shortwave will drop into SC early Friday evening, pushing the cold front into the area. A big question mark is what convection, if any, develops out ahead of the front. It will heavily depend on what happens in southern SC with the first batch of convection and whether or not the airmass gets worked-over as a result. If convective coverage is limited during the early afternoon activity, a greater degree of destabilization could occur in southern SC, allowing for a more conducive airmass for convective development late Friday afternoon or early evening. For now we penciled in scattered PoPs across eastern Berkeley/Charleston Counties late afternoon and early evening.

Saturday will be dry and noticeably cooler with highs in the upper 70s. Sunday will warm up a bit due to upper ridging, with highs in the mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Early next week will briefly start off quiet before a warm front extending across the Deep South lifts north. Conditions look quite unsettled beginning late Monday night into Wednesday due to plentiful upper forcing and deep moisture building in. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
21z TAFs: Radar indicates the line of strong thunderstorms has moved east of all of the TAF sites, so they were amended to show the improving conditions. Behind the storms, stratiform precipitation will persist until early evening, then end. VFR is expected for part of the night. MOS and some of the ensembles then indicate IFR ceilings developing over the terminals late tonight, which we have in the TAFs. Finally, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to bring impacts to the TAF sites late in the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could continue into Friday afternoon with flight restrictions and gusty winds possible within convection. VFR conditions will return for the weekend into early next week.
Scattered convection expected Monday night and Tuesday.

MARINE
Through Sunset: A line of thunderstorms is moving though the coastal waters. Some of these storms could produce gusts in excess of 40 kts and possibly a waterspout. The main line of storms should move east our waters and dissipate by about sunset.

Tonight: Expect winds to be mainly SW 10-20 kt. A few gusts up to 25 kt are possible across the Charleston County waters this evening, especially across the far northeastern portion of the zone. But the time and areal extend don't appear to be enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. Seas should be in the 2-4 ft range.

Friday: A decent SW gradient expected in advance of a cold front, though winds will be quite variable once convection moves offshore midday. Late in the afternoon and early evening, wind gusts could approach 25 kt, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that a short-duration Small Craft Advisory is needed. Due to the low confidence we will hold off on any issuance with this package.

Marine conditions will improve Saturday morning as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds/seas expected to increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next storm system.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Highway bridge
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Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     Moonset
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Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia, Tide feet

Fort McAllister
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Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     7.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:50 PM EDT     8.55 feet High Tide
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Fort McAllister, Ogeechee River, Georgia, Tide feet

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