Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flemington, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:53PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:21 AM EST (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 11:06PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 640 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..E winds 5 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 640 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flemington, GA
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location: 31.95, -81.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221058
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
558 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves
inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work
week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No real changes were made for the today period, but did speeds
up pops slightly for the evening hours based on the latest data.

Another warm day is in store for the region as 850 hpa
temperatures push +12c within a modest warm air advection
regime ahead of an approaching cold front. Some stratocumulus
will likely impact at least the coastal areas this morning, but
these should break by late morning early afternoon. Still
expect quiet a bit of cirrus to traverse the area as high level
moisture associate with the subtropical jet spreads east.

Skies will be mostly cloudy for a good portion of the day, but
still expect highs to once again reach into the lower 70s with
a few spots potentially touching the mid 70s, especially across
interior southeast georgia south of the i-16 corridor.

Models are insistent that isolated showers could affect mainly
south coastal south carolina later in the day as isentropic lift
peaks in the vicinity of an ill-defined coastal trough. Models
soundings show an extensive dry pocket between 400 hpa and a
cloud layer around 2.5-3kft, so it is hard to believe that
measurable rainfall could occur in this type of environment.

However, both the rap and h3r still show isolated showers
developing in the beaufort-summerville corridor as the coastal
trough reaches the beaches. There just is not enough evidence at
this point to suggest measurable rainfall could occur (maybe
patchy sprinkles), so will remove all mentionable pops.

However, it should be noted that some statistical guidance
packages are showing pops as high as 50-70% in the beaufort-
charleston-georgetown region, which just seem unreasonable in
this regime.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight: the region will be fully embedded within the warm
sector overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front looks to remain west of the region through the day, but
will likely be approaching the far western zones around daybreak
Tuesday. A warm and increasingly moist airmass will hold in
place through the night as deep-layered forcing ahead of a
powerful upper low propagating across the middle mississippi
valley overspreads the southeast states. This will support a
swath of rain with embedded tstms ahead of the cold front with
isolated, isentropically induced shower activity developing out
well ahead of the wind shift. Likely pops around 60% will be
maintained for most areas early Tuesday, but higher pops may
eventually be needed. Increasingly wind fields within the warm
sector will prevent temperatures from dropping too much with
lows only dropping to around 60 within a well mixed boundary
layer. The record low minimum at the charleston airport could
be challenged.

Surface instability will be quite limited, but guidance shows
showalter values becoming slightly negative (as low as -1c) as
the night progresses. This coupled with the degree of deep-
layered lift throughout the column could support at least
isolated tstms, so a slight chance of tstms will be included.

Increasing dewpoints over the cooler atlantic shelf waters could
support some sea fog over the nearshore waters, some of which
could brush areas along east of the highway 17 corridor in south
carolina. A mention of "patchy fog" will be included to trend.

Tuesday: the cold front will move through the region in the morning.

Any remnant showers will quickly get pushed offshore as high
pressure builds in from the west in the afternoon and overnight
hours, bringing drier conditions and clearing skies. The increased
sunshine and some downslope flow should help to offset the initial
cool advection, allowing temperatures to rise well above normal,
especially near the coast. Breezy winds will also develop behind the
front in the afternoon. Additionally, wind gusts could briefly
approach 25 kt for lake moultrie. Cold air advection becomes more
dominant at night and that combined with the mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to drop quite a bit from the daytime highs.

However, they are still expected to be near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday: surface high pressure will dominate.

Other than some high clouds associated with a short wave, dry
conditions are expected. Despite mostly sunny skies, weak cold air
advection will limit highs to near normal, with overnight lows a few
degrees below normal.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
High pressure will prevail Thursday night into Friday, bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Models are in excellent
agreement showing a strong cold front approaching from the west
Saturday, then moving through the region on Sunday. Given the great
agreement, we have pops gradually increasing on Saturday, then rain
highlighted on Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
not out of the question, but we're still several days out.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Primary concern:
* MVFR CIGS and timing
* rain chances overnight
low clouds have yet to develop despite agreement by all
available guidance. Hard to say why clouds have not developed a
expected. Opted to delay the onset of MVFR CIGS by several hours
given current satellite trends. CIGS will remain high-end
MVFR low-endVFR for much of the day. Risk for low clouds will
increase this evening as low-level jetting strengthens. Rain is
expected to reach ksav by 07z and kchs by 09z. Some light
showers could reach ksav as early as 03z, but no vsbys impacts
are expected. Again, limited any vsby restrictions in the rain
to MVFR for now.

Extended aviation outlook: gusty winds are expected behind a cold
front on Tuesday.

Marine
Today: an ill-defined coastal trough will move inland today.

Could see a few showers closer to the gulf stream, but no major
impacts are expected. Light winds will gradually become
southeast then south today as high pressure shifts farther
offshore. Winds will remain 10 kt or less nearshore and closer
to 10 kt offshore. Seas will average 1-2 ft nearshore and
building to 2-3 ft over the georgia offshore waters. Increasing
dewpoints coupled with veering winds could support patches of
sea fog over the georgia waters later today, possibly as far
north as edisto beach late. SREF guidance is rather bullish on
the density and extent, but will not bite off on this quite
yet. Will show "patchy fog" and include a mention for dense sea
fog in the hazardous weather outlook for now.

Tonight: the risk for sea fog will continue, if not slightly
increase later in the evening, as dewpoints rise even more and
low-level trajectories favor increasing parcel residence times
over the cold shelf waters. Speeds will increase to 15-20 kt
with seas building to 2-4 ft, highest over the georgia offshore
leg. Seas should remain below small craft advisory thresholds,
although it could be close beyond 40 nm closer to daybreak.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: a cold front will move through the waters
in the morning. Continental high pressure will build in from the
west during the day and overnight. Cold air advection behind the
front combined with an enhanced pressure gradient will lead to
increased winds and seas in the afternoon and evening hours. We may
need small craft advisories for amz350 and 374 along with the
charleston harbor. Conditions will improve overnight as the gradient
lessens.

Climate
Record high minimums for 23 january:
kchs: 62 1999
kcxm: 66 1937
ksav: 65 1937

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service until further notice.

Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: kltx, kcae, kjgx,
kvax and kjax.

The downtown charleston observation site (chls1 kcxm) remains
out of service until further notice.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi51 min E 6 G 7 49°F 47°F1021.4 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 38 mi81 min E 4.1 45°F 1021 hPa (+0.0)45°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 50 mi91 min E 7.8 G 7.8 55°F 50°F1 ft1021.1 hPa (-0.4)52°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA7 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F90%1021 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA18 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair46°F42°F87%1021.3 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA19 mi28 minN 310.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F41°F93%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from LHW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6NW4CalmS3CalmSE5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW6NW5NW6W8W6SW10SW8W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW3SW5W6W7SW6NW6SW8SW6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
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Mon -- 02:14 AM EST     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:38 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:37 PM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.80.90.90.80.70.50.30.20.100.20.50.8110.90.80.60.40.20.100.1

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Belfast River, Georgia
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Belfast
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     7.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:40 PM EST     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:53 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:05 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.1764.42.61.10.20.41.63.45.26.57.37.46.85.43.61.80.4-00.62.24.15.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.