Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flemington, GA

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:05PM Monday August 20, 2018 11:02 AM EDT (15:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:06PMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 939 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Rest of today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming sw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 939 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The area will be situated between an inland trough and atlantic high pressure through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Wednesday, then stall just offshore through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flemington, GA
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location: 31.95, -81.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 201350
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
950 am edt Mon aug 20 2018

Synopsis
The area will be situated between an inland trough and atlantic
high pressure through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the
area from the northwest on Wednesday, then stall just offshore
through the end of the week.

Near term through tonight
Today: no significant changes were made with the latest update.

Overall there is not much change in the pattern compared to
the past few days. Thus, expect generally warm and muggy
conditions to prevail with only isolated showers and
thunderstorms much of the afternoon with the best chance toward
the deeper moisture and forcing near the midlands csra.

The modified 12z chs sounding indicates moderate instability
with a bit more dcape than previous days so any stronger storms
could more easily produce damaging winds. Also, deep moisture (pwats
over 2 inches) and relatively weak deep layer flow storm motions
should lead to heavy rain which may produce localized minor
flooding. Highs will warm into the lower 90s away from the
beaches with heat indices peaking near 100 degrees.

Tonight: the latest GFS suggests this cluster or an associated
outflow could interact with the sea breeze after near sunset,
which could potentially result in a brief uptick in convection.

It is unclear exactly how this scenario will evolve, but the rap
does loosely support such a scenario. Will carry 30% across
interior southeast south carolina into the interior georgia
counties along the savannah river to try and account for this
with 20% pops elsewhere. Expect any lingering convection to
dissipate by midnight with rain-free conditions prevailing
during the early morning hours Tuesday. Lows will range from the
lower 70s inland to the upper 70s near 80 at the beaches.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of a weak ridge
just off the east coast, getting absorbed into the synoptic flow.

Broad high pressure will be off the southeast coast while a trough
stretches from the great lakes region into the deep south. As the
day progresses the high offshore will get pushed away by the
eastward moving trough, which is forecasted to stretch from the
great lakes region down into the southeast overnight. At the
surface, low pressure over the great lakes region in the morning
will quickly move into canada as the day progresses. The low will
drag with it a cold front, which is forecasted to be just west of
our area by the overnight hours. Also, in front of the front will be
a weak surface trough. Moisture is forecasted to increase just ahead
of the front. A small swath possibly up to 2.3" is forecasted to
move through our area overnight. Per SPC sounding climatology, this
is above the 90% moving average for chs for this time of year. Pops
may be a little tricky. Models seem to indicate the best chances in
the morning over the coastal waters and into the charleston tri-
county area. But then this activity decreases and far inland
locations experience greater chances. The main swath of
precipitation moves through during the first half of the night and
then becomes more prominent along the coast and offshore just before
daybreak. Despite the approaching front and plenty of moisture,
instability is lacking. GFS blcapes struggle to reach 1,000-1,500
j kg during the daylight hours, inching upwards in the evening.

Dcapes are marginal, but 0-1 km bulk shear does increase during the
evening and overnight. So there certainly is a small wind threat
with the strongest storms that manage to develop. The heavy rainfall
potential will remain limited due to higher winds aloft helping to
move along any storms that do develop. Temperatures are expected to
be a few degrees above normal.

Wednesday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of a trough
stretching from the great lakes region down into the southeast. This
trough is expected to remain in place into the night and amplify. At
the surface, a cold front will be just west of our area in the
morning. It will slowly move eastward during the day, and become
located over or just off our coast by the overnight hours. Pwats
drop below 2" during the day, possibly lower than 1.5" far inland.

The highest pops are in the vicinity of the front, but models do
indicate an area of enhanced precipitation along the immediate coast
in the afternoon. Precipitation then shifts offshore during the
evening with only some remnants along the coast overnight.

Instability is very low for this time of year, so thunderstorms
could have a difficult time forming in many locations. But if they
do, and they become strong, then they will have high dcapes to work
with. Though, this all depends on the exact location of the front.

If it shifts a lot, then that will require large changes to the
forecast. Temperatures should be near normal.

Thursday: in the morning the mid-levels will consist of a trough
stretching from the northeast u.S. Down into the southeast.

Meanwhile, broad high pressure will be located over the southern
plains. As the day progresses the trough will lift to the northeast
and deamplify, followed quickly by a weak ridge. Meanwhile, high
pressure over the southern plains will try to work its way towards
the southeast. At the surface, a cold front will stall just offshore
while strong high pressure is over the middle ms valley. As the day
progresses, the high will move eastward, which will help push the
front further away from us. The high will also push more dry air
into our area, keeping pwats ~1.75". Even inland dewpoints could
fall into the upper 60s, making it feel comfortable for august.

Models still indicate the best potential for precipitation is along
the coast. However, this may be overdone given the influences of the
high. For now, we're only going low end chance pops. Similar to
Wednesday, meager instability will make it hard for thunderstorms to
develop. But we'll keep them in the forecast for now because it's
august after all. Temperatures will be near normal.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Models show a northeastern u.S. Trough lifting into Friday, followed
by broad high pressure building from the southern plains over the
weekend. A front will be stalled offshore during this time period.

The exact location of the front will drive the precipitation
potential. Given the uncertainty, we went with a model blend.

Additionally, temperatures could be a few degrees below normal.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Vfr. Coverage of convection should be lower than the past few
afternoon evenings, thus no mention of tsra will be included at
either kchs or ksav for the 12z TAF cycle.

Extended aviation outlook: small probabilities of brief flight
restrictions Tuesday due to convection. Higher probabilities of
brief flight restrictions due to convection associated with a
front Wednesday through Friday.

Marine
Through tonight: no concerns with a southerly wind regime
holding firm. Speeds will remain 15 kt or less during the
daytime hours and 15-18 kt overnight within a typical, noctural
surge regime. Seas will average 1-3 ft today and 2-4 ft tonight.

Tuesday through Friday: the coastal waters will be situated
between an inland trough and atlantic high pressure Tuesday. A
cold front will approach the area from the west on Wednesday,
then stall over or just to the east of the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will lead to mainly southwest
winds through Wednesday, followed by changing wind directions on
Thursday before generally prevailing from the northeast on
Friday. Though, if the front shifts further away, then more
changes may be needed with the wind forecast. The highest winds
are expected during the first half of Tuesday night due to an
elevated pressure gradient from the approaching front. Wind
gusts at this time should peak around 20 kt. Though, a few gusts
could briefly approach 25 kt across the easternmost portion of
the charleston waters and the offshore ga waters beyond 30 nm.

No marine headlines are expected. Seas will generally be in the
2-4 ft range this week. The exception will be Tuesday night when
some 5 footers are expected in the areas where the wind gusts
will be the highest.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjb
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 31 mi39 min WNW 8 G 9.9 82°F 83°F1019.9 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 38 mi63 min W 5.1 83°F 1019 hPa (+1.0)75°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 50 mi73 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 82°F2 ft1019.2 hPa (+1.4)76°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wright Army Airfield (Fort Stewart)/Midcoast Regional Airport, GA7 mi2.1 hrsSW 510.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1018.9 hPa
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA18 mi2.1 hrsWSW 410.00 miFair78°F76°F93%1018.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA19 mi70 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1019.3 hPa

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1 day agoSW6SW6W6S8S8SW5SW9SW9SW9SW4S7CalmW8CalmSE4S4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5
2 days ago--SW4E3S5E4W3S7SE4E11--SE4SW4CalmS3SW3SE4CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW5

Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.20.20.30.60.810.90.90.70.60.40.20.20.10.30.50.811.110.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Belfast River, Georgia
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Belfast
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:18 AM EDT     7.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:28 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     7.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.33.65.16.47.16.964.63.21.91.11.11.93.24.86.47.587.66.65.23.62.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.