Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Reidsville, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 8:08PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm...including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1226 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1226 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Atlantic high pressure will remain in control as troughing persists inland through late this week. A cold front will approach this weekend, likely falling apart early next week as high pressure returns. Another cold front will approach during the middle of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reidsville, GA
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location: 31.95, -82.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 171633
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1233 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Atlantic high pressure will remain in control as troughing
persists inland through late this week. A cold front will
approach this weekend, likely falling apart early next week as
high pressure returns. Another cold front will approach during
the middle of the week.

Near term through tonight
No changes with this update. Convection has started firing
across the area and if the current trend continues, then we
should be able to cancel the heat advisories within a few hours.

Many spots not being impacted by convection are currently
experiencing temperatures well into the 90s with heat indices
at or approaching 110 degrees. Convection will provide some
relief. SPC mesoscale analysis indicates the greatest
instability across the charleston tri-county and these seems to
match up well with other cams.

Otherwise, the expansive mid upper level subtropical ridge will
persist across the region with another dose of hot and steamy
summer weather for the forecast area. Due to a general increase
in moisture between 700 mb and 500 mb, we will see pwats build
over the area but with the ridging aloft, the main impetus for
diurnal convection will be a sluggish sea breeze and some broad
low level moisture convergence near an inland surface trough.

Thermodynamics look typical for this time of year for pulse
convective and pops today closely maintained general
persistence, not far off typical climo numbers for this time of
year.

Tonight: isolated evening or perhaps even spotty coastal nocturnal
convection is possible, as models show the upper ridge flattening
late. We played it mainly dry after midnight with another very
warm night with lows in the upper 70s most areas.

Short term Friday through Sunday
Friday: the area will lie near the southern extent of the westerlies
aloft, as deep ridging persists across the region from the
atlantic to the desert sw. The surface pattern features a well
pronounced piedmont trough and the sub-tropical ridge axis
across fl. Despite weak subsidence capping, there is adequate
instability and moisture to generate scattered convection,
mainly in the afternoon and generally triggered by the sea
breeze and small-scale boundary interactions. Pwat in excess of
2.0-2.2" and storm motion from W to E at only around 10-12 kt
will support locally heavy rain in persistent storms. The
overall thermodynamics aren't overly impressive, but with dcape
greater than 1000 j kg, strong wind gusts can occur in a few of
the tallest t-storms. Both the 925 mb and 850 mb temps remain
abnormally warm, supportive of another day with above normal
highs, at least in the lower and middle 90s prior to the onset
of convection. Associated heat indices should peak at 105- 108f,
so no heat advisory is currently anticipated.

Saturday: despite a strong short wave sweeping through the great
lakes, oh valley and upper midwest, deep ridging holds firmly in
place. The impulse aloft will push a cold front a little closer to
the area from the nw, but similar to the pattern aloft, strong
ridging will block the progress of the front from getting too close.

But due to its proximity, pwat greater than 2" and typical
instability, convective rain chances will reach at least 50%,
perhaps higher once boundary interactions, mergers, etc occur. There
is a little more shear (around 15 or 20 kt within the first 6km), so
a few multicellular clusters can occur. Moisture pooling in advance
of the front can result in a heavy rain threat, but storm motion is
a bit higher than Friday, so no widespread flooding would occur.

Again with the dcape in excess of 1000 j kg we'll need to be
concerned with some wet microburst potential a few of the storms.

Little change in low level temps and thickness values, but with a
higher rain chance, MAX temps won't be as hot as recent days, but
still above normal.

Sunday: deep sub-tropical ridging will dominate, as the cold front
fizzles out to the nw, as the sea breeze looks to be the main focus
for convection, aided by some forcing due to the rrq of the upper
jet across eastern nc and SE va. Plenty of moisture and typical
instability, will support at least chance pop's, and with less flow
than on Saturday and the high pwat's there is yet again another
locally heavy rain potential. Not much change in low level temps and
thicknesses, so MAX temps will again reach above normal prior to
convection developing.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Abnormally strong mid level ridging will prevail Monday and Tuesday
before broad long wave trough develops over a good portion of the
eastern states during the middle of the week. Simultaneously at the
surface the sub-tropical ridge will persist as a lee side trough
redevelops for Monday and Tuesday, but with diminishing heights
aloft and the formation of the large scale trough, a cold front will
attempt to approach late in the forecast period. Plenty of moisture
and modest thermodynamics will support at least scattered coverage
of showers and t-storms through the period, including Monday, the
"big" day of the total solar eclipse. Temps will remain above august
norms.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
MainlyVFR outside isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms,
mainly this afternoon and early evening. Will adjust based on
radar trends.

Extended aviation outlook: temporary flight restrictions can occur
in scattered and mainly diurnal convection through early next
week.

Marine
The low level ridge axis remains well off to the south and
southeast of the waters through tonight and a typical warm
season regime of south to southwest synoptic flow will persist
over the waters. Speeds will be fairly light today with seas 2
ft or less near shore and 3 ft well offshore. Late day and
overnight surges should not amount to more than 15 kt on average
with seas still in the 2 to 3 ft range overall.

Friday through Monday: for the most part the sub-tropical atlantic
ridge will maintain its hold on the coastal waters, blocking
upstream low pressure troughs and a cold front from ever getting
this far se. At times there is enough tightening of the gradient and
a boost from the sea breeze and nocturnal low level jetting to
produce S or SW winds as high as 15 or 20 kt, but not quite enough
to reach advisory levels. Seas will top out at 3 or 4 ft. Mariners
should plan for at least isolated to scattered showers and t-storms
through the entire period.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical influences will lead to a round of elevated tides early
this weekend into early next week. Only small tidal departures are
necessary and we could approach shallow coastal flooding levels,
especially over parts of the sc coast, including downtown
charleston.

Climate
Record high minimums for 17 august...

kchs 78 2010
kcxm 82 2010
ksav 78 1995
record high minimums for 18 august...

kchs 78 2010
kcxm 82 1998
ksav 78 2010
record high minimums for 19 august...

kchs 79 2010
kcxm 81 2009
ksav 79 1878

Equipment
The temperature sensor at the downtown charleston observation site
(kcxm) has failed. Technicians are working to resolve the problem.

Temperature and dewpoint data will not be available until the sensor
is replaced.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for gaz087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.

Sc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for scz040-042>045-
047>052.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term... 33
aviation...

marine...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 58 mi92 min W 1.9 93°F 1018 hPa (+0.0)76°F
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 66 mi44 min NW 6 G 7 91°F 86°F1017.7 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 78 mi42 min Calm G 1.9 87°F 86°F1 ft1017.6 hPa (+0.0)78°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vidalia, Vidalia Municipal Airport, GA21 mi37 minNNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1018.3 hPa
Claxton Evans County Airport, GA23 mi37 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F73°F58%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from VDI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W6W6W7W5N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmW3W5W6W5W5
1 day agoNW8SW8NW7SW7SW5W4W3SW3W6W6W5W7CalmCalmW3W3W3CalmW4W4W4W4W4W6
2 days agoCalmCalmW12
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Tide / Current Tables for Highway bridge, Ogeechee River, Georgia
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Highway bridge
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Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:59 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.10.10.20.50.81110.80.60.40.20.1-000.30.71.11.21.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Belfast River, Georgia
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Belfast
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     7.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:57 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     9.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.63.14.96.57.57.775.63.81.90.4-0.20.52.24.46.68.39.18.97.86.14.22.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.