Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:32 AM   Moonset 5:56 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 061047 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 647 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

New 12Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The mid levels continue to remain active across the CWA during the short term period of the forecast. High pressure remains in control of the sensible weather at the surface.

500mb analysis shows a shortwave moving through the CWA early this morning. The system has provided just enough lift for showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning. A secondary shortwave is noted over northern MS, in the base of a trough. This second shortwave may skirt the CWA just to the north, but maybe provide just enough lift for sct shra/tsra this afternoon and evening. With the system passing further north, the highest pops should be across far N GA this afternoon/evening. Shortwave ridging should build in for Tuesday, but isold/sct afternoon/evening storms are expected again.

With the early morning activity, convection may end up getting somewhat of a later start this afternoon and evening over the southern two thirds of the CWA A few strong storms will be possible, producing gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

NListemaa

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Transient shortwave ridging will begin to transition back to west southwest flow aloft on Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will likely reach the warmest levels of the week with afternoon ranging from the mid-to-upper 80s in north Georgia to lower 90s in Middle Georgia. With a quasi-stationary surface front situated across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, PoPs Wednesday will be highest across north Georgia with lower chances farther south.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to a shortwave moving along the aforementioned frontal zone Wednesday afternoon. This activity will shift southeastward through Thursday morning, likely in the form of a gradually decaying convective complex. As such, PoPs will begin to increase across north Georgia by Thursday morning, and the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant damaging wind threat will need to be monitored as it pushes into our area.

The surface cold front will get a kick into the state through the day Thursday as the upper trough swings through the Great Lakes region. Depending on how morning activity pans out and the degree to which afternoon instability recovers ahead of the front, additional thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening could pose a further severe threat. With PWATs in advance of the front potentially nearing 2", locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

By Thursday night into Friday, the bulk of PoPs should be relegated into Middle Georgia as the front continues to push southward. A cooler and drier airmass will gradually filter from north to south in the wake of the front, setting up a much cooler and less active weekend forecast. Below normal temperatures are likely to persist into early next week.

RW

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Some small potential for patchy MVFR cigs this morning, but it remains low. VFR for the remainder of the day, outside of any storms. Complex over northern AL should mostly skirt north of ATL this morning, but will have to monitor if the system holds together/or dives a little further south. Atmos is fairly stable from overnight convection and with the potential cloud cover from the system across northern AL, afternoon convection could be late.
Coverage is still in question. Winds should switch over to the SW side by mid morning and remain on the west side through the remainder of the period.

//ATL Confidence
12Z Update
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 64 87 67 88 / 40 30 20 30 Atlanta 67 86 68 88 / 30 30 30 30 Blairsville 61 80 63 82 / 40 40 40 50 Cartersville 64 86 66 87 / 30 40 40 40 Columbus 67 90 69 92 / 20 20 0 10 Gainesville 65 85 68 86 / 40 30 30 40 Macon 65 89 68 90 / 30 20 0 10 Rome 65 85 66 87 / 30 40 40 40 Peachtree City 65 87 68 89 / 30 30 20 20 Vidalia 68 91 70 92 / 30 20 0 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Buffalo River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EDT     8.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     10.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Buffalo River entrance, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Dillard Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:19 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EDT     8.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:33 PM EDT     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM EDT     10.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dillard Creek, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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