Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yellow Bluff, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 5:39PM Monday February 19, 2018 1:39 PM CST (19:39 UTC) Moonrise 9:49AMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 927 Am Cst Mon Feb 19 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Slight chance of showers.
Thursday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 927 Am Cst Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis..A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails through the end of the week, except occasionally stronger well offshore through mid week. Patchy fog development will be possible late each night into the early morning hours over the bay waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yellow Bluff, AL
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location: 31.95, -87.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 191803 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1203 pm cst Mon feb 19 2018

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Southerly flow off the gulf of mexico has kicked in
over the area, especially over western portions of the forecast
areas, with the abundant CU coverage the tip-off. Current temp
trend on track, along with light shra over western portions of
the area, so am not planning on any more updates. Fog was removed
from zone product in an earlier update.

16

Aviation
18z issuance... Southerly flow will continue to increase moisture
levels over the area, with MVFRVFR CU in abundance over mainly
alabama TAF sites. Into the overnight, am expecting fog to
redevelop over mainly alabama TAF sites. Wind strength will be
biggest driver between mainly stratus or visbys getting into lifr
levels. At this point, kmob looks to have the greatest chance of
being affect by dense fog, with a few hundred feet of rise as the
moist air approaches the TAF site helping with fog formation.

Also, with winds in fog formation nuclei rich western mobile bay,
kbfm also has a good chance of seeing lifr level CIGS visbys
tonight.. Guidance is very conservative with kpns, so have been
more conservative in dropping the CIGS visbys there overnight.

16

Prev discussion issued 546 am cst Mon feb 19 2018
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

12z issuance... Patches of lifr to ifr ceilings over the area at
the beginning of the period, along with a few patches of thick
fog over the interior florida panhandle, transition toVFR
conditions for the entire area by mid morning. An ifr MVFR
ceiling develops this evening with the potential for vlifr lifr
conditions in low ceilings and fog at some locations. Light
southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 knots through midday then
diminish to a light southeast flow again tonight. 29
prev discussion... Issued 434 am cst Mon feb 19 2018
near term now through Monday night ... An upper ridge extending
from the northern gulf into the western atlantic amplifies
significantly through the period as a longwave trof advances
across the western states. A series of shortwaves moving through
the southwest flow aloft ahead of the advancing upper trof lead to
a series of surface lows moving from the plains and off to the
northeast, along a slowly advancing cold front. A surface ridge
oriented near the northern gulf coast strengthens somewhat today
in response to the slowly advancing front series of surface lows
resulting in light southeast winds near 5 knots currently over the
area increasing to 10 to 15 knots by midday. This modestly increasing
southerly flow is expected to limit fog development to patchy at
best early this morning. Another unseasonably warm day is expected
today with near record highs. The forecast high for mobile is 80, and
the record is 83 set in 2017. The forecast high for pensacola is
78, and the record is 81, also set last year. Other than some
isolated light showers possible over the western portion of the
area today, dry conditions are expected through tonight. 29
short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... Upper ridging
continues to build over the western atlantic and southeastern u.S.

Through the short term, with broad troughing maintained over the
western conus. This pattern leaves us beneath the back edge of the
upper trough, near the periphery of a wide band of southwest
upper-level flow extending from mexico northeast into eastern
canada. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure continues to
ridge from the western atlantic into the southeastern u.S. And
eastern gulf, maintaining a warm and moist onshore flow across
our area. The combination of anomalous mid- and upper-level
ridging and warm onshore flow result in high temperatures
remaining around or even just above record levels Tuesday and
Wednesday. This will especially be the case in areas that can see
sunshine peek through the clouds.

The mid-level ridge axis over the northern gulf elongates and
pushes east late Tuesday into Wednesday in response to the
advancing western CONUS trough. With this shift, subsidence over
our area weakens enough for some showers to form Tuesday
afternoon. Rain chances continue into Wednesday, especially over
our northwestern counties, as the upper trough slowly advances
eastward and pushes a surface front into the lower mississippi
river valley. Models also remain in fair agreement in developing
enough instability across our area Wednesday afternoon to include
a mention of thunder mixed in with the rain showers. 49
long term Thursday through Sunday ... The midweek surface front
ultimately stalls to our northwest, keeping the axis of heaviest
rainfall out of our area except for areas generally west of i-65,
which could see some scattered showers and storms continue into
Thursday afternoon. The front then lifts off to the north Thursday
night as another mid-level ridge builds back over the area. The
resulting subsidence beneath this ridge will help suppress rain
chances Friday.

Eventually, the upper ridge that blocked the western CONUS trough
all week dampens and pushes south, leaving a primarily zonal flow
pattern across much of the eastern CONUS over the weekend.

Meanwhile, mid-level southwest flow continues from mexico up into
eastern canada as a potent shortwave digs into the desert
southwest. The resulting cyclogenesis in the lee of the southern
rockies develops a surface low over the south plains, which kicks
quickly northeast into the great lakes region by Sunday. This low
drags another front southeast towards our area, stalling it
across our inland counties and bringing rain chances back to the
area both Saturday and Sunday.

In terms of temperature, expect the near-record high temps to
continue Thursday and Friday thanks to the anomalous mid-level
ridge and associated subsidence. This will be especially true for
areas east of i-65 on Thursday, away from the showers and storms
near the stalled front. Temperatures then cool a little (but
remain well above seasonal normals) over the weekend as the next
front stalls nearby and overcast skies return. 49
marine... A light to moderate southeasterly flow prevails through
the end of the week, except occasionally stronger well offshore
through mid week. Patchy fog development will be possible late each
night into the early morning hours over the bay waters. 29

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 92 mi57 min 73°F 59°F1022.8 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 93 mi69 min SE 13 76°F 1023 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 96 mi51 min S 6 G 11 69°F 63°F1022.8 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Evergreen, Middleton Field, AL42 mi46 minS 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds81°F59°F47%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from GZH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW8S5CalmCalmS4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6E3CalmE4E7SE6S7S8SE11S15
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1 day ago6
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W8SW8W3S4S8SW7SW4SW3SW6N6N3NW3N4N3N3N4N4NE3N3NE3SE6CalmCalm
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W86W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S7SW7SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama
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Lower Bryant Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:54 AM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:16 PM CST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:26 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.91.11.21.31.31.31.21.10.90.70.60.50.50.60.80.91110.90.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:39 AM CST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:17 AM CST     0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:50 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:04 PM CST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM CST     0.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:26 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.30.20.20.20.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station East Alabama
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.