Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 12:33 AM   Moonset 10:20 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 290908 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 408 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through tonight: A large mesoscale convective system will continue to track east across the area early this morning, and it should gradually weaken as it moves into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. One concern with this decaying MCS scenario is for a wake low wind event to take place, and current upstream obs suggest this could be unfolding (e.g., El Dorado gusted to 36 mph from the southeast). Will continue to monitor for increased mesoscale wind potential, but overall, any remaining severe threat looks marginal, and the progressive nature of the diminishing MCS should help to limit the heavy rain potential. Going through tonight, convective rainfall potential should continue ahead of a shortwave trough passage this evening. There may be increased fog potential for early Tuesday morning. /EC/

Tuesday through mid next week: Our area continues to be under a late spring/early summer regime with a warm humid airmass in place. Showers and thunderstorms will be a daily possibility, driven by this humid airmass, as well as intermittent disturbances. Through much of the week, ridging aloft will prevent any airmass change. Moisture is ample to support diurnal convection, though weak shear will limit any updraft organization.
Later in the week, a weak cold front attempts to push southward and may bring briefly cooler temperatures, but significant airmass change is unlikely. Rain and storm chances slowly decrease early next week as we begin to warm even more with temperatures in the upper 80s and perhaps some spots reach 90 degrees by mid next week. /SAS/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Humid southerly flow will fuel a slow-moving convective system and support increased mostly MVFR category stratus and TS potential as we go through the morning, but expect a slight improvement later Monday afternoon with a greater chance for reaching VFR category.
By Monday night, ceilings are expected to lower significantly, and we may see a greater threat for IFR category ceilings, and perhaps even some vsby reductions due to fog prior to daybreak.
Overall, southerly surface wind and stronger mixing should limit widespread fog potential. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 78 62 82 62 / 90 60 10 0 Meridian 83 61 84 61 / 70 60 20 0 Vicksburg 76 63 84 63 / 100 30 10 10 Hattiesburg 82 64 86 64 / 70 60 30 10 Natchez 76 63 84 64 / 100 30 20 10 Greenville 75 64 82 63 / 100 30 0 0 Greenwood 75 63 82 62 / 90 60 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama, Tide feet

Lower Hall Landing
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Mon -- 12:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:15 AM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 PM CDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

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Jackson/Brandon, MS,