Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pachuta, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:08PM Sunday March 18, 2018 1:05 AM CDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pachuta, MS
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location: 31.95, -88.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Jackson, MS
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Fxus64 kjan 180547 aac
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service jackson ms
1247 am cdt Sun mar 18 2018

Severe weather possible over the next 48 hours...

Updated for 06z aviation discussion

06z TAF discussion:
vfr conditions prevail across much of the region early this
morning. However, ifr MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at
most sites heading into daybreak, with at least some visibility
reductions possible as well. Scattered shra tsra will also
increase from west to east during the early morning hours, with ts
possible at any time during the day along and south of i-20 and
during the afternoon and evening north of i-20. Ceilings will
gradually improve through the day at most sites, except hbg pib
where MVFR conditions may stick around through much of the day.

Then a return to ifr MVFR ceilings are expected later this
evening across most of the region. Dl

We had a few relatively potent storms south of the highway 84
corridor late this afternoon into very early this evening along
a low level convergence zone just north of the coast. Atop this
zone the strong west to east upper jet ensured enough deep layer
wind shear for some storm organization with respectable
temperature lapse rates aloft delivering moderate instability. But
that convection is gone with only a few showers trying to
initiate along this northward-drifting convergence zone in an
environment where instability is decreasing (due to loss of
heating). Meanwhile, out to our west more robust and widespread
showers and thunderstorms are going on west of the sabine river
where a nearby low pressure system and closer proximity to energy
influx from western trough is providing substantially more
atmospheric lift.

Through the remainder of the night, model consensus is rather good
that the northward lifting convergence zone will eventually get
co-located with a southward sagging "stalled" surface front (now
mostly to our north), especially in western zones. In these
western zones enhanced lift associated with this feature will also
be prone to better instability (mainly elevated above the surface)
and upward motion aloft as minor disturbances approach from out of
the mentioned western trough. The result should be a smattering of
showers and embedded thunderstorms in western zones after
midnight. Small hail cannot be ruled out with some storms late
tonight as shear and most-unstable CAPE is certainly more than
marginal. However, thinking is that overnight activity will not be
rooted at the surface and also not organized enough to warrant a
truly severe threat. Of course we will be watching things closely.

The other, more minor, concern is for patchy (perhaps briefly
dense) fog forming late tonight mainly across southeastern ms.

As for tomorrow, models are trending to show more cool influx near
the surface in northern zones through at least midday as the
mentioned sagging front tries to work toward the i-20 corridor.

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage over this time period with probably only a marginal risk
for any severe storms in the region through midday (and this risk
mainly south of i-20). The considerably better chances for severe
storms still looks to come in the afternoon to evening hours
tomorrow with the main risks being large hail and damaging winds,
although tornadoes certainly cannot be ruled out. Bb
prior discussion below:
tonight and Sunday: local radars had scattered thunderstorms
tracking east across our southeast most zones. This activity is
not expected to become severe and will dissipate early this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Mid afternoon water
vapor imagery and surface analysis had a weakening shortwave
nearing the ohio river valley and an associated surface low with a
trailing cold front back across the arklatex. This cold front
will drift into our northwest most zones later this evening and
stall close to highway 82. Model consensus suggests thunderstorms
will develop to our west along this stalling front and track east
toward our cwa. Mostly elevated severe storms capable of hail and
damaging winds may enter our southeast arkansas counties and
northeast louisiana parishes before sunrise. This activity should
spread east of our CWA before noon but afternoon heating will
contribute to additional thunderstorm development. This
development will likely be surface based and capable of producing
damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. In addition,
locally heavy rain will also be possible. Considering the current
river flooding and soil moisture across the area, flash flooding
may also occur. Late Sunday afternoon and evening, a closed low
developing tonight over the sierra nevadas will swing east over
the central plains and deepen a surface low. The strengthening waa
in response may help enhance development along the old stalled
front prolonging the severe thunderstorm threat. 22
Sunday night through Friday... The primary concerns for the period
will be the several rounds of severe weather for Sunday night into
Monday followed by another round of cool temps for the middle of
next week.

At the beginning of the period some strong to severe convection will
be occurring across portions the region as a closed low tracks
across the southern plains. A surface boundary will be across the
forecast area. Wind shear fields and instability will be favorable
for severe weather for most of the night. Latest cam guidance shows
that some of the strongest storms will be across the north where
the better forcing will take place. There was also some discrete
strong cells across the southeast according to the NAM cam
guidance. Any development at night is going to depend on how the
convective features develop during the day Sunday. Another round
of severe weather will be possible for Monday as the associated
cold front pushes across the region. It looks like the best chance
will be across the east where the best instability will occur
during the afternoon. The latest NAM cam guidance did not look
very active on this model run. The primary risk for Sunday night
into Monday will be large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes.

So will split the Sunday to Monday period with two severe
graphics. One for Sunday and Sunday night with the slight risk
graphic and then the slight risk across the northeast graphic for
Monday with the SPC day 3 outlook issued earlier today.

With pwats around 1.5 inches wpc is holding on the the slight risk
for Sunday into Sunday night. So with some of the backwater areas
and some of the rivers being up and moist soil conditions from
recent rainfall, will keep the current flood graphic of 1 to 3
inches for Sunday into Sunday night. Wpc has gone down some on the
qpf for our area for days 1 through 3.

The cold front will exit the region by Monday evening taking out the
strong thunderstorms with it. There may be some lingering isolated
showers in the evening in the wake of the front before they depart.

Another southern stream shortwave will bring some showers on
Tuesday which will exit by Tuesday evening. Cool high pressure will
build across the region for Wednesday into Thursday. This will occur
as we develop an amplified pattern with an upper ridge over the
plains to an upper trough over the eastern seaboard. Northwest flow
aloft will bring some rather cool nights to the region. Lows for
Wednesday and Thursday morning will dip into the middle 30s across
the east, which will cause some frost issues for tender vegetation.

On Friday the upper ridge will move over the lower mississippi
valley with some low level return flow. Temperatures will start to
moderate back into the lower 70s during on Friday. 17

Preliminary point temps pops
Jackson 62 82 49 59 61 27 13 19
meridian 61 83 51 62 72 41 23 15
vicksburg 63 81 50 60 56 24 9 14
hattiesburg 64 84 53 65 65 31 24 11
natchez 65 82 51 60 48 23 11 13
greenville 60 76 47 57 66 26 8 19
greenwood 59 77 47 56 68 36 10 24

Jan watches warnings advisories
Ms... None.

La... None.

Ar... None.

Dl bb 22 17

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 97 mi54 min 67°F 60°F1014.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Meridian, Key Field, MS28 mi68 minS 610.00 miFair67°F63°F87%1013 hPa

Wind History from MEI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS9S6S7S5S5S7S6S6S9SW10SW7SW9SW10SW8W11SW7S8SW7SW3S4S6S7SW5S6
1 day agoS8S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7S8S4SW4S6S3SE6SE7SE7S9S9S10S11S12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S6S6S8--5S3SW5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama
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Lower Bryant Landing
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Sun -- 05:25 AM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:00 PM CDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 PM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:28 PM CDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama
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Lower Hall Landing
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Sun -- 04:37 AM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:35 PM CDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:02 PM CDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jackson, MS (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jackson/Brandon, MS
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.