Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isle of Hope, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:22PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:00 PM EST (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 339 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 339 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A warm front will lift north into the area tonight before a storm system affects the area Friday and Saturday. High pressure is expected to prevail through mid next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle of Hope, GA
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location: 31.98, -81.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 132125
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
425 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north into the area tonight before a
storm system affects the area Friday and Saturday. High
pressure is expected to prevail through mid next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
This evening and tonight: widespread high clouds will persist over
the area this evening as well as mild temps to the north of a weak
coastal trough warm front developing along the florida georgia
coast. Latest radar indicates some returns over coastal waters and
and near the southeast georgia coast, but precip will likely
struggle to reach the sfc due to dry low-mid lvl air during the next
couple hours. Rain shower activity will eventually spread across the
area from south to north initially late evening into early overnight
hours as low-lvl moisture begins to advect to the area along near
the warm front lifting north and inland. Strong isentropic lift will
develop over the area tonight and likely help precip coverage expand
across the area after midnight with latest guidance suggesting
highest rainfall accumulation over northern areas initially followed
by additional rainfall over inland areas late as the onset of
greater moisture advection and forcing occur with an approaching low
pressure system from the west. Precip coverage and intensity should
further increase late tonight as pwats increase upwards to around
1.5 inches over much of the area. Given the setup, bouts of moderate
to potentially heavy rainfall are not out of the question near daybreak.

However, minor flooding issues are anticipated with the bulk of heavier
rains after daybreak Friday morning. Low temps will remain mild,
generally ranging in the low mid 50s away from the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Sunday
A deep upper level low will move from the texas louisiana coast
Friday to off the mid atlantic coast later Sunday. This system will
result in widespread rain, heavy at times, Friday through Saturday
morning. The time period with the highest potential for heavy
rainfall is expected to be later Friday morning through Friday
evening. The moisture and forcing pulls off to the northeast Friday
night into Saturday, which will allow rainfall to gradually end from
southwest to northeast. The best chances for rain will remain over
the sc zones Saturday morning, then move off to the northeast out of
the area by afternoon as a surface cold front and drier conditions
push in from the west. The upper low finally moves out of the area
by early Sunday with high pressure returning from the west.

Heavy rainfall and flash flood potential: the forecast for rainfall
totals for this event have not changed much. Still expect totals of
2 to 4 inches across most of the area, highest over the sc zones,
and lowest over the southeast ga zones. At this time, the potential
for flash flooding appears to be too low to put a flash flood watch.

However, conditions will be favorable for "training" convective
cells due to deep south-southwest flow. Thus, it is possible that
isolated areas could experience rainfall rates of 1-2 inches hour
within areas where training occurs, which could result in ponding of
water and minor flooding of some low lying regions.

Thunderstorm potential: despite moderate to strong values of shear
and helicity, model guidance continues to show a lack of surface
based instability over the land. Up to 300-600 j kg possible,
especially the coast from mcintosh county, ga to just south of
beaufort, sc, mainly Friday afternoon and early evening. Have kept
slight chance mention for thunder, but chances for any severe storms
over the land areas seems too low to put in forecast at this time.

Temperatures: guidance shows temperatures to be much milder than
past several day. Highs Friday are expected to be in the mid 60s to
near 70. A little cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the surface cold
front, which will push through Saturday afternoon. The airmass
behind this cold front is pacific in nature, and will therefore
temperatures are not expected to be as cool. Highs both days in the
lower 60s. Lows will start off mild Friday night, in the mid 50s to
around 60, the cool into the 40s Saturday and Sunday nights.

Temperatures by Sunday will actually be close to seasonal
normals.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Deep layered ridging will yield dry weather and temperatures
within a few degrees of normal through at least Wednesday.

There are large model differences regarding a potential storm
system late next week.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
High clouds will dominate the area this evening, before more
substantial moisture shifts over the region late evening and
overnight. MVFR conditions should develop at both chs and sav
terminals late tonight into Friday morning as widespread showers
develop over the area with a passing low pressure system. Ifr
conditions are not out of the question at either terminal beyond
noon Friday and will likely need to be included in future
forecasts later Friday afternoon.

Still expect MVFR ifr conditions to be likely Friday through
Saturday morning at both terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible. By later Saturday, conditions expected to improve, likely
back toVFR by Saturday evening, then persisting through mid week.

Marine
This evening and tonight: the pressure gradient will increase
across the waters between high pressure to the north northeast
and a low pressure system tracking east over the mississippi
delta and deep south overnight. In general, easterly winds
upwards to around 10 kts will become southeast and increase to
15-20 kts as a warm front lifts north and inland through the
period. Gusts up to 25 kts are not out of the question late,
mainly over offshore georgia waters. Seas will also build
considerably during the overnight period, especially after
midnight. Seas could top out in the 4-7 ft range by daybreak
Friday, highest in the offshore georgia waters. Small craft
advisories will therefore remain in effect for offshore georgia
waters and nearshore south carolina waters overnight.

A deep layer low pressure system to the west of the waters Friday
and Saturday will setup a strong southerly pressure gradient over
most of the waters. Have continued small craft advisories for most
of the waters, except charleston harbor and the nearshore ga waters.

Small craft conditions are in place mainly for seas of 6 to 8 feet.

Conditions will begin to improve Saturday night for the nearshore sc
waters, and are expected to below advisory levels for all waters by
Sunday morning. Strong high pressure and no highlights return from
the west Sunday, and persists through mid week. West-northwest winds
Sunday and Monday are expected to veer to north-northeast by
Wednesday as high pressure moves north of the waters.

Hydrology
Models all still generally showing 2 to 4 inches of rainfall for
many areas, especially our sc zones from late Thursday night through
Saturday. Localized ponding minor flooding will be possible. River
and stream levels are also likely to rise. Several rivers across the
area are already at above flood stage, and could rise higher into
next week. Other rivers may approach or reach flood stage too by
early mid next week.

Given the current daily rainfall records listed below, it is very
possible some of those records could be approached or broken after
this event.

** current daily rainfall records **
charleston intl airport
12 14: 1.79 in 1977
12 15: 1.50 in 1974
downtown charleston
12 14: 1.17 in 1977
12 15: 1.79 in 1974
savannah airport
12 14: 1.68 in 1943
12 15: 1.03 in 1947

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 5 pm est Saturday for
amz352.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am est Sunday
for amz374.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 6 am est Sunday for
amz350.

Near term... Dpb
short term... Rfm
long term... Jrl
aviation... Dpb rfm
marine... Dpb rfm
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 9 mi30 min NE 9.9 G 12 53°F1022.7 hPa
41033 40 mi52 min ENE 9.7 G 14 57°F 56°F1022.4 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 41 mi120 min NNE 6 62°F 1021 hPa (-2.0)54°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 41 mi70 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 59°F2 ft1021.7 hPa (-1.2)59°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi64 minNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F47°F60%1021.6 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA14 mi67 minENE 610.00 miOvercast63°F46°F56%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E6----E10E9E7NE6
1 day agoW5W3W6W3W8W5SW7SW6SW5SW3W5W4W3W4CalmW3NW5NW7NW4NW3W5SW6S4SW6
2 days agoW5W4W8W5W6W6W5NW6NW7NW8N8NW5NW6NW7NW7NW9NW10NW9NW11NW12NW11NW10W9W9

Tide / Current Tables for Isle of Hope, Skidaway River, Georgia
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Isle of Hope
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Thu -- 12:25 AM EST     6.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:51 PM EST     7.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.76.65.84.32.81.51.11.52.64.15.46.57.27.46.95.642.41.311.72.84.25.4

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
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Thu -- 12:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 AM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:06 PM EST     -1.60 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:03 PM EST     1.67 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.1-0.9-1.4-1.3-1.1-0.70.111.51.51.10.70.2-0.6-1.3-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.60.51.31.71.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.