Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington Island, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 5:50PM Monday January 22, 2018 3:00 PM EST (20:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:46AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1237 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
This afternoon..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1237 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will prevail this afternoon as a weak coastal trough moves inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington Island, GA
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location: 32, -81     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221748
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1248 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail today as a weak coastal trough moves
inland. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
morning, followed by high pressure through the end of the work
week. Another cold front will likely impact the area early next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Nearby radars continue to show isolated showers over charleston
and berkeley counties, and it rained briefly at kchs earlier. We
maintained slight chance pop over these two counties, with
little measurable QPF to occur. We also opened a slightly larger
range of temps from the cooler coast and near lake moultrie to
the warmest locations south of i-16 in ga where some mid 70s
will occur. Most other places will reach the upper 60s and
lower 70s. Sea fog still evident along the immediate coast, but
now as far north as st. Catherines island and south to sapelo
and the mouth of the altamaha river.

Previous discussion:
we have opted to include a slight chance of showers, mainly over
the northern half of charleston county and far e-se berkeley
county. Satellite pictures showing an enhancement of cumulus
clouds, and now both kltx and kcae showing returns. This is in
response to the poorly defined coastal trough. Most places
though will stay rainfree given large dew point depressions.

Today: a vertically stacked cyclone will move NE through
nebraska and missouri, with it's associated cold front will ride
east toward the tennessee valley and through the NW gulf. As
this occurs it forces a large atlantic ridge and it's associated
short wave ridging over and near the local area further into
the ocean, supplying us with a deep s-sw flow throughout the
vertical.

Isentropic ascent will produce increasing stratocumulus clouds
that either advect onshore and or develop, while considerable
cirriform clouds will also occur in response to a coupled upper
jet moving through the se. Despite average sky coverage of
60-80%, strong warm advection with 850 mb temps reaching 10-11c
will allow for highs to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. The
exceptions will be along the coast where onshore flow will limit
highs to around 60f north and mid 60s south.

There is a small area of sea fog hugging the coast from near
sapelo to the altamaha river entrance and southward. Some of
this will spread northward as winds veer to the s-se this
afternoon, and could reach near tybee island toward dark.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Tonight: the region will be fully embedded within the warm
sector overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. The
front looks to remain west of the region through the day, but
will likely be approaching the far western zones around daybreak
Tuesday. A warm and increasingly moist airmass will hold in
place through the night as deep-layered forcing ahead of a
powerful upper low propagating across the middle mississippi
valley overspreads the southeast states. This will support a
swath of rain with embedded tstms ahead of the cold front with
isolated, isentropically induced shower activity developing out
well ahead of the wind shift. Likely pops around 60% will be
maintained for most areas early Tuesday, but higher pops may
eventually be needed. Increasingly wind fields within the warm
sector will prevent temperatures from dropping too much with
lows only dropping to around 60 within a well mixed boundary
layer. The record low minimum at the charleston airport could
be challenged.

Surface instability will be quite limited, but guidance shows
showalter values becoming slightly negative (as low as -1c) as
the night progresses. This coupled with the degree of deep-
layered lift throughout the column could support at least
isolated tstms, so a slight chance of tstms will be included.

Increasing dewpoints over the cooler atlantic shelf waters could
support some sea fog over the nearshore waters, some of which
could brush areas along east of the highway 17 corridor in south
carolina. A mention of "patchy fog" will be included to trend.

Tuesday: the cold front will move through the region in the morning.

Any remnant showers will quickly get pushed offshore as high
pressure builds in from the west in the afternoon and overnight
hours, bringing drier conditions and clearing skies. The increased
sunshine and some downslope flow should help to offset the initial
cool advection, allowing temperatures to rise well above normal,
especially near the coast. Breezy winds will also develop behind the
front in the afternoon. Additionally, wind gusts could briefly
approach 25 kt for lake moultrie. Cold air advection becomes more
dominant at night and that combined with the mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to drop quite a bit from the daytime highs.

However, they are still expected to be near normal.

Wednesday and Thursday: surface high pressure will dominate.

Other than some high clouds associated with a short wave, dry
conditions are expected. Despite mostly sunny skies, weak cold air
advection will limit highs to near normal, with overnight lows a few
degrees below normal.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
High pressure will prevail Thursday night into Friday, bringing dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Models are in excellent
agreement showing a strong cold front approaching from the west
Saturday, then moving through the region on Sunday. Given the great
agreement, we have pops gradually increasing on Saturday, then rain
highlighted on Sunday. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are
not out of the question, but we're still several days out.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Isolated shra will stay n-ne of kchs this afternoon, while MVFR
ceilings will stay south of ksav. Thus we have a forecast of
low-endVFR ceilings at both sites this afternoon and into this
evening. However, as low level winds increase tonight, lower
ceilings will develop, trending down at least into the MVFR
range and continuing through late in the TAF period. A cold
front will bring light to moderate shra to both sites overnight
into Tuesday morning, with a very low risk of isolated tsra,
maybe knocking visibilities down to 5nm.

Although presently not shown in the tafs, there is a chance of
llws overnight as a 35-45 kt low level jet moves through. Since
it is marginal due to surface winds of 10-15 kt, we will defer
to later TAF issuances to see if it should be included.

Extended aviation outlook: gusty winds are expected behind a cold
front on Tuesday.

Marine
This afternoon: the local waters will lie under the western
portions of extensive atlantic high pressure, with the
anticyclonic circulation only marginally interrupted by N ill-
defined coastal trough that dissipates this afternoon. While
this is initially keeping winds NE and E closer to shore, winds
will veer to s-se all waters this afternoon. Speeds on average
will be no higher than 10 or 15 kt, with limited seas at or less
than 2 ft.

Satellite images showing sea fog now as far north as st.

Catherines island, then south to near sapelo island and the
mouth of the altamaha river. Some of this will spread further
north through the afternoon as winds veer around, perhaps
reaching near the entrance of the savannah river late. A marine
weather statement has been issued to mention the fog and address
the concern for locally dense fog. The bulk of the fog will
occur within about 5 nm of the shoreline.

Tonight: the risk for sea fog will continue, if not slightly
increase later in the evening, as dewpoints rise even more and
low-level trajectories favor increasing parcel residence times
over the cold shelf waters. Speeds will increase to 15-20 kt
with seas building to 2-4 ft, highest over the georgia offshore
leg. Seas should remain below small craft advisory thresholds,
although it could be close beyond 40 nm closer to daybreak.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: a cold front will move through the waters
in the morning. Continental high pressure will build in from the
west during the day and overnight. Cold air advection behind the
front combined with an enhanced pressure gradient will lead to
increased winds and seas in the afternoon and evening hours. We may
need small craft advisories for amz350 and 374 along with the
charleston harbor. Conditions will improve overnight as the gradient
lessens.

Climate
Record high minimums for 23 january:
kchs: 62 1999
kcxm: 66 1937
ksav: 65 1937

Equipment
The kclx radar remains out of service until further notice.

Repairs are ongoing. Adjacent radars include: kltx, kcae, kjgx,
kvax and kjax.

The downtown charleston observation site (chls1 kcxm) remains
out of service until further notice.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...

climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 6 mi49 min E 6 G 8 52°F 46°F1019.5 hPa
41033 37 mi53 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 51°F 49°F1018.9 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 42 mi71 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 60°F 53°F2 ft1019.2 hPa (-2.6)59°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 43 mi121 min S 7 73°F 1020 hPa (-2.0)65°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 48 mi76 min S 1 68°F 1020 hPa61°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA8 mi65 minSE 710.00 miFair73°F61°F67%1018.6 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA14 mi68 minS 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F61°F62%1019 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC22 mi2.2 hrsNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F57°F78%1020 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S5S9S3SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E7E5E5SE6SE7
1 day agoSW7SW7SW3S4S6S4S3CalmS3CalmSW3W5CalmCalmSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW4
2 days agoW7W5SW5S4S6CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W4W8NW8W10

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel
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Mon -- 05:15 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:31 AM EST     7.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 PM EST     7.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.95.84.22.510.20.51.73.65.46.77.37.46.65.23.41.70.4-00.72.44.35.96.9

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:02 AM EST     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EST     1.83 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:36 PM EST     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     1.99 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:03 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.6-1.1-0.40.61.41.81.610.5-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.8-1.5-0.901.11.91.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.