Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thunderbolt, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 21, 2018 1:03 AM EDT (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:40PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1242 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1242 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The region will remain between atlantic high pressure well the east and an inland trough of low pressure through later this week. The trough of low pressure is expected to settle over the region and will likely persist into early next week. A cold front could push into the region by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thunderbolt, GA
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location: 32.04, -81.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 210447
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1247 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
The region will remain between atlantic high pressure well the
east and an inland trough of low pressure through later this
week. The trough of low pressure is expected to settle over the
region and will likely persist into early next week. A cold
front could push into the region by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Mainly dry weather is anticipated overnight. Convective debris
clouds will continue to diminish and thin, and skies will
be mostly clear to partly cloudy. We're seeing a few signs of
light fog forming where earlier rains occurred, and this could
lead to some pockets of 2-4 nm visibilities overnight, but no
mention required in the forecast. Lows will make it down only
to the mid and upper 70s, with even a few sites close to 80f
near the coast and in downtown charleston.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday
The summer solstice occurs at 607 am Thursday.

The biggest change in the overall pattern through the rest of the
week and into early this weekend is that the strong mid upper level
ridge will gradually weaken. The ridge weakens in response to a
strong upper low that models have been persistently showing will form
over the central u.S. And slowly move east-northeast toward the
lower great lakes by the end of the period. In addition, deep layer
moisture increases some. The combination of lower mid upper heights,
better deep layer moisture and some vorticity advection will result
in slightly higher pops, generally in the chance range, each
afternoon. The difficulty is that the best moisture does not
necessarily coincide with any weak upper level forcing each day,
which is why we left chance pops for mainly afternoon evening. The
best deep layer moisture looks to be Thursday, but oddly, guidance
is reflecting slightly lower pops. Given the lower upper
heights and the potential for some large scale weak upper forcing,
there may be a slightly higher chance for strong to low end severe
storms each afternoon. However, the chances are not enough to
mention in the forecast or hwo at this point.

Temperatures will remain well above normal, but not quite as hot as
last few days as upper heights fall by about 5 decameters. Guidance
showing considerable drop in surface dewpoint temperatures on
Thursday, which seems a little suspect, but did keep upper 60s
inland and lower to mid 70s at the coast. The combination of
slightly lower dewpoints and temperatures will lead to lower heat
indices, but still in the lower 100s likely each afternoon. Lows
very warm, in the mid to upper 70s, to around 80 at the coast.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The upper ridge will temporarily rebuild over the southeast on
Sunday, causing temperatures to rise back into the middle 90s,
reducing convective coverage, and potentially requiring heat
advisories. A substantial upper vort MAX is forecast to drop
southeast into the area Monday, pushing a weak back door cold
front through the area Monday night or Tuesday. There is
increasing model agreement that temps will be a couple degrees
cooler next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR. The potential for convection late Thursday is low
enough that we don't require any mention in the tafs at this
time.

Extended aviation outlook:
through this weekend: mostlyVFR conditions. However, chances
for afternoon convection will be slightly higher through much of
the period, which will result in slightly higher chances for
brief convectively induced flight restrictions.

Marine
Overnight: a decent SW flow between an inland trough and high
pressure to the se, as speeds average 10-15 kt throughout. Seas
will bounce around between 2 and 3 ft.

Long term marine... (Friday through Thursday)...

no highlights expected through Monday. The marine area will
remain between atlantic high pressure well to the east and lower
pressure over the land. This will produce southwest winds of
mainly 15 knots or less, highest during the afternoon and near
the coast with the sea breeze, with seas 2 to 3 feet. By the end
of the period early next week, models are indicating the
potential for a cold front to approach from the north, which
could increase the pressure gradient enough to produce 15-20
knot winds.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi64 min WSW 4.1 G 6 80°F 81°F1012.5 hPa (+1.0)
41033 37 mi56 min SSW 7.8 G 14 82°F 84°F1011.3 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 45 mi64 min SW 8.9 80°F 1012 hPa (+1.0)75°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 45 mi74 min SSW 12 G 14 82°F 83°F3 ft1011.7 hPa (+0.4)
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 47 mi79 min Calm 81°F 1012 hPa78°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi68 minSW 310.00 miFair78°F73°F88%1011.5 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi71 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds79°F75°F88%1012.1 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC22 mi69 minS 510.00 miFair82°F77°F84%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS6SE6SE9W13
G22
E4S3CalmS6SW5N5W3SW3
1 day agoS3S3CalmS3SW3CalmCalmSW5SW6CalmCalmS4SW4S4S9SE11SE9S8S9S9
G15
S6S7S5SW5
2 days agoCalmW5CalmCalmCalm--------SW3W3CalmS4SE8SE7SE8SE9SE10SE7S7S5S4CalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Thunderbolt, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Thunderbolt
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Thu -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:44 AM EDT     8.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.35.26.988.27.45.83.81.90.4-0.10.51.93.85.87.48.28.27.35.73.71.80.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Savannah River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM EDT     -2.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:22 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:36 PM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.11.91.40.4-0.8-1.6-2-2.1-1.7-0.70.61.72.12.11.81.20.1-1.1-1.8-2.2-2.3-1.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.