Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thunderbolt, GA

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:15PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 1:23 AM EDT (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:33PMMoonset 7:31AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1212 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 1212 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Weakening low pressure will brush the north carolina coast tonight, as high pressure begins to build from the atlantic in its wake. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and Thursday, then stall nearby into Friday. A second cold front is expected over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thunderbolt, GA
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location: 32.04, -81.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 260421
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1221 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Synopsis
Weakening low pressure will brush the north carolina coast
tonight, as high pressure begins to build from the atlantic in
its wake. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday
and Thursday, then stall nearby into Friday. A second cold
front is expected over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
No major changes were made for the early morning update. Did
nudge lows down 1-2 degrees for most areas given the nearly
ideal radiational setup. Dry conditions will prevail overnight,
although some activity is expected to develop over central
georgia into the western midlands near an area of isentropic
assent.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday
Wednesday: a broad long wave trough centered near hudson bay in
canada will result in a cyclonic flow across much of the lower 48
states, while a strong h5 ridge centered between fl and bermuda will
hold in place. This will result in a continuation of abnormally high
heights across the local region, with a deep w-sw flow to prevail.

Sub-tropical surface high pressure will begin to fill in behind the
wave of low pressure off the nc and southeast va coasts that is
lifting to the north and northeast, as a nearby stationary front
dissipates and is replaced nearby with a lee side trough. Further
upstream will be an elongated cold front that stretches from low
pressure in eastern canada to another low in the lower ms valley
that crosses much of the appalachians by sunset. While there is
certainly sufficient moisture with pwat as high as near 2 inches,
the best forcing stays outside of the forecast counties to the west
and northwest, and the overall thermodynamic environment is not
overly impressive. The air mass will remain capped in the morning,
before we look for isolated activity to form along the sea breeze,
and scattered coverage further upstream closer to the lee side
trough. This could lead to a collision of these two boundaries near
and west of the us-301 corridor, which will result in pop as high as
30-40% these locations by late in the day. Dcape is in excess of
1000 j kg, so strong winds might occur in a few of the taller
storms. MAX temps will be far above climo due to h8 temps of 17-18c
and the high heights aloft, with most places 90f or better inland
from the coast.

Wednesday night: models differ on how much activity will linger
through the night, but expect due to late day boundary interactions
that are anticipated within the forecast area, that it'll take at
least several hours before it winds down. We'll show scattered pop
through the night. Where convection does end and if debris clouds
diminish enough there could be some concern for low stratus and fog.

Lows will be well above normal.

Thursday: the road mid and upper level trough will edge its way a
little eastward, which will push a cold front into closer proximity
of the area. However, the front will struggle to make it too far
southeast, as it becomes parallel to the flow aloft and is impeded
by deep sub-tropical ridging over the atlantic. The environment in
advance of the front looks favorable for showers and t-storms with
considerable moisture and instability. Although lapse rates are
somewhat limited in strength and there could be some morning
convection that occurs that could restrict how strong storms in the
afternoon can develop. However, with some upper level difluence due
to the nearby upper jet close to the appalachians and 0-6 km bulk
shear of 20-25 kt, there could be some organized storms that form.

This could lead to a marginal severe risk as per SPC guidance, with
potentially strong or damaging winds with dcape of 1000-1500 j kg.

But due to the NAM not showing much convection and the possibility
that there is too much activity that occurs in the morning, we will
not add mention yet to the hazardous weather outlook. Temps won't be
quite as high as Wednesday, but still several degrees above average.

Friday: the cold front becomes diffuse as the center of deep layered
ridging shifts closer to the area from the atlantic, with a slight
increase in heights aloft, plus a small increase in surface
pressure. That said, there remains adequate moisture and
instability, plus some forcing due to upper difluence and meso-scale
boundary interactions at the surface, to again allow for a chance of
showers and t-storms. Dcape is forecast in excess of 1000 j kg and
there is around 20 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, so we'll need to monitor
for isolated strong or marginally severe storms. H8 temps hold
around 17-18c while heights rise a tad, enough to boost temps above
normal.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Models show a cold front approaching the region early this weekend,
then possibly stalling over us or just to the north. The location
of the front will determine the resulting forecast. We're forecasting
above normal pops and temperatures.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr. Similar to yesterday, there are no signals for stratus
impacting the terminals through daybreak. Could see some shallow
ground fog and possibly a hint of stratus at kchs prior to
daybreak, but not anticipating any problems. Convection should
remain west of the terminals this afternoon.

Extended aviation outlook: convection resulting from a nearby with a
passing cold front could bring flight restrictions Wednesday night
through Thursday. Brief flight restrictions are also possible each
afternoon into this weekend.

Marine
Tonight: winds seas will remain well below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. Northeast east winds around 10 kt or
less this evening will slowly veer to east southeast and become
light after midnight as low pressure currently over the western
atlantic shifts north of the area and weakens. Seas will average
2-4 ft through the period, highest in northern south carolina
waters and offshore georgia waters.

Wednesday through Thursday: the coastal waters will be positioned
underneath the outer fringes of atlantic high pressure, while a slow
moving cold front is found inland over the southeast states. Not
much going on regarding winds and seas, although scattered t-storms
will occur Wednesday night and Thursday, a few of which will be
strong.

Friday through Monday: the cold front falls apart inland during
Friday, with strong high pressure to begin building from the north
on Saturday, then covering the entire area early next week. There
are two concerns regarding late this week and early next; the first
is the possibility of long period swells from post-tc leslie that
will produce larger seas in the marine area. The second is the
potential for enough pinching late in the forecast period for
stronger winds. We'll see if either of these conditions are able to
result in small craft advisories at a later time.

Rip currents: conditions look quiet across the surf zone through
Thursday, but there remain indications from both the wave watch and
nwps guidance that long period swells from post-tc leslie spinning
in the central atlantic will impact the beaches late in the week. If
this comes to fruition, an enhanced risk of rip currents would
occur.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi41 min S 1 G 1 79°F 83°F1020.6 hPa
41033 37 mi75 min S 1.9 G 3.9 81°F 83°F1019.5 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 45 mi83 min SE 4.1 79°F 1020 hPa (+1.0)74°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 45 mi33 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 84°F3 ft1020.1 hPa (+0.4)74°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 47 mi98 min Calm 73°F 1020 hPa73°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi87 minN 010.00 miFair74°F71°F90%1019.6 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair76°F73°F91%1020.2 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC22 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5NE3CalmCalmN3NE3NE6NE5E4CalmE3CalmE5SE4SE7E7SE7SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE8NE3E9E12E12
G19
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E5E9SE5S4SE6SE3S4CalmE7NE5NE4E4CalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Thunderbolt, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.