Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thunderbolt, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:23PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:45 AM EST (11:45 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 2:47AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 547 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
AMZ300 547 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Dry high pressure is expected through Wednesday. A storm system will then impact the area Thursday and Friday, followed by cooler and drier high pressure through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thunderbolt, GA
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location: 32.04, -81.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 181121
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
621 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
Dry high pressure is expected through Wednesday. A storm system
will then impact the area Thursday and Friday, followed by
cooler and drier high pressure through early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 615 am: a band of cirrus is timed to lift north of the
forecast area by daybreak this morning. Patchy fog was observed
across portions of the charleston tri-county early this morning.

I expect the fog to dissipate by 13z, starting the day with
mostly sunny conditions. The current forecast appears in good
shape.

As of 230 am: a weak backdoor cold front is forecast to slide slowly
south across the forecast area today, possibly becoming stationary
near the altamaha river by sunset. In fact, patchy fog is expected
to develop across the charleston tri-county area, along and ahead of
the front. As the front passes, sfc winds are forecast to veer from
the ene today. Given the weak CAA and possible late afternoon
arrival of cirrus, I will forecast high temperatures to range from
near 60 near the santee river to the mid 60s near the altamaha river.

Tonight: a weak frontal wave is forecast to develop over the gulf
stream off the ga coast late tonight. To the west, sfc high pressure
will ridge SW along the east facing slopes of the appalachians. Llvl
flow will turn from the south and will strengthen through the late
night hours. It appears that isentropic lift will develop over the
marine zones during the pre-dawn. However, moisture appears to
increasing from the top-down, but remaining rather dry over the land
zones. I will indicate increasing cloud cover late tonight. Given
the better moisture and lift over the marine zones, I will indicate
schc pops off shore for a few showers. Low temperatures are forecast
to range 3-4 degrees above normals, generally low to mid 40s.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
A coastal trough offshore could bring a few showers along the
central sc coast Wednesday but most areas will be dry until after
midnight Wednesday night. Rain chances should peak Thursday as a
warm front lifts north through the area and upper forcing combines
with the deepest moisture before tapering off Thursday night and
even moreso Friday, although some showers are expected to linger
through Friday afternoon as the deep upper trough cutoff low
persists across the region. Instability looks minimal but can't rule
out a few weak storms, especially near the coast Thursday into early
Friday. The main concern though will be flooding as some places
could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain. Given the wet ground from
recent rainfall this could lead to some flash flooding. However the
threat seems mainly confined to coastal areas of central sc such as
downtown charleston where elevated astronomical tide levels could
come into play. Fortunately the highest tides are most likely Friday
morning after the bulk of the rain should have already ended.

However, the Thursday morning and evening high tides will likely be
near or higher than 6.5 ft mllw and thus should be the periods of
greatest flash flood risk. Temperatures will remain above normal
through the period.

Long term Friday night through Monday
Cooler and drier conditions will be returning Friday night and
continuing through early next week with high pressure generally
dominating. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr at ksav through 12z Wednesday. Near term guidance and
observations indicated that at least patchy fog remain across
portions of the charleston tri-county area around dawn. I will
initialize the kchs TAF with mifg, dissipating by 13z.

Otherwise, tafs will feature rounds of few to sct cirrus with
winds veering from west early this morning to ene during the
daylight hours. Weak lift and deepening moisture may support
periods of MVFR ceilings at kchs during the pre-dawn Wednesday,
highlighted with a tempo from 10z-12z.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions possible starting Wednesday
afternoon due to MVFR ceilings, then are likely Wednesday night into
Friday with periods of ifr or worse due to low clouds heavy rain.

Also, gusty winds likely Friday Friday night.

Marine
A weak backdoor front will slide slowly south across the marine
zones today. Winds in the wake of the front will veer from NW early
this morning to NE during the daylight hours. Winds are expected to
strengthen to 10-15 kts this afternoon. Tonight, a weak frontal wave
is forecast to develop over the gulf stream off the ga coast late
tonight. To the west, sfc high pressure will ridge SW along the east
facing slopes of the appalachians. Winds tonight will remain from
the NE between 10 to 15 kts. Seas today through tonight are forecast
to range between 1-2 ft within 10 nm and 2-3 ft across the outer
waters.

Wednesday through Sunday: no concerns until later Thursday when
advisory winds and or seas are likely to return at least over the
offshore waters. Small craft advisories are expected for all waters
at some point, mainly Thursday night through Friday night. Cannot
rule out some gale force gusts as well Friday and Friday night
especially closer to the gulf stream. Improving conditions then
expected this weekend as high pressure returns.

Equipment
The kclx radar will be down until further notice. A technician
is scheduled to make repairs on Tuesday.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned rjb
marine... Ned rjb
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 7 mi51 min WNW 7 G 8 47°F 56°F1018.3 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 45 mi55 min WNW 12 G 14 54°F 57°F2 ft1018.1 hPa (+0.7)43°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 45 mi45 min NW 5.1 46°F 1018 hPa (+1.0)42°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 47 mi60 min Calm 41°F 1018 hPa41°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA6 mi49 minW 510.00 miFair40°F36°F88%1017.6 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA11 mi52 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds40°F37°F93%1018.3 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC22 mi70 minVar 410.00 miFair45°F39°F81%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3Calm----SW3W5W3SW6SW5SW7W3W4CalmCalmW3W5W6W5W4W4W6W6W5
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W8W7W5SW3W3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoSW4W5SW4SW5S4W10W9W13SW11W6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W4SW5W3W4W3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Thunderbolt, Wilmington River, Georgia
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Thunderbolt
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:22 AM EST     7.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM EST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     7.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:50 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.44.15.87.17.87.66.65.13.52.11.21.123.34.96.27.17.36.75.43.71.90.60.2

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current (2) (expired 1999-12-31)
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Savannah River Entrance
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Tue -- 01:48 AM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:46 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:50 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:38 AM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 12:06 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:14 PM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM EST     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.21.41.10.5-0.1-0.8-1.5-2.1-2.2-1.8-1-0.10.81.21.10.5-0.1-0.7-1.4-2.1-2.3-2-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.