Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Garden City, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:20PM Sunday September 23, 2018 8:53 AM EDT (12:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:54PMMoonset 4:42AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 603 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 603 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will weaken today as a stationary front gradually approaches from the north into Monday. Low pressure will approach from the atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, then weaken as it moves northward. A cold front is forecasted to approach from the west towards the second half of the week and then possibly stall over the area. A second cold front is expected next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garden City, GA
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location: 32.07, -81.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 231003
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
603 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will weaken today as a stationary front gradually
approaches from the north into Monday. Low pressure will
approach from the atlantic Monday night into Tuesday, then
weaken as it moves northward. A cold front is forecasted to
approach from the west towards the second half of the week and
then possibly stall over the area. A second cold front is
expected next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is pretty much on track. Made minor adjustments to
hourly pops over the marine area per kclx radar trends. The rest
of the forecast looks good.

H5 heights will rise today as the deep layered high pressure
centered well offshore the southeast u.S. Begins to build west
and influences from the weakening tutt over the gulf of mexico
wane. Despite the strengthening ridge aloft, the elongated
surface high extending from eastern georgia to north of bermuda
is weakening and becoming increasingly strung out ahead of a
strong cold front that is moving farther offshore of the new
england and mid-atlantic coasts this morning. This weakening of
the surface anticyclone will allow deeper moisture to slowly
advect north and northwest along the coast as the sfc-h8 flow
slowly veers. Pwats are forecast to rise to 1.50 to 1.85 inches
through the day and will be locally near 2 inches along the
georgia coast at times later this morning per latest rap
output.

Expect a larger areal extent of isolated shower activity today
compared to past several days with activity generally remaining
confined to the coastal counties until the afternoon sea breeze
pushes inland. There is a potential for more scattered coverage
along coastal georgia later this morning where deeper moisture
will be found, but am hesitant to increase pops any higher than
20% at this time given the sea breeze geometry will favor more
of a pure sea breeze. Pure sea breeze circulations typically
have weak, ill-defined convergence fields associated with them
and with strong capping still noted aloft in the absence of any
upper-level forcing feature, there is just not enough evidence
to justify higher pops at this time. This will have to be
monitored, however. Highs will range from the upper 80s near 90
well inland to the mid 80s at the beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday
Tonight: quiet conditions will persist. Another subtle coastal
trough surface perturbation will move west into the waters
early Monday and may help to increase the risk for showers just
before daybreak. Most of the night looks dry, however, with
clouds increasing from off the atlantic. Lows will range from
the upper 60s near 70 well inland to the upper 70s at the
beaches.

Monday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure off the
southeast coast in the morning, with it's western periphery barely
stretching into our area. Additionally, a ridge will be over the
great lakes region. The ridge will move eastward through the day and
into the night. This will help to strengthen the high off our and
allow heights to rise over our area. At the surface, a broad area of
low pressure will be far to our east Monday morning. Meanwhile, a
stationary front will spread across nc. The front will slowly move
southward during the day and into the night, weakening and then
dissipating, possibly over our area. Meanwhile, the broad low will
gradually approach from the atlantic. Models have backed of on the
pwats a little, with amounts peaking ~2" in the afternoon. Though,
spc sounding climatology indicates this is still above the 90%
moving average for chs for this time of year. The lift and moisture
will generate precipitation, with areal coverage initially along the
coast and then moving inland during the afternoon, aided by the sea
breeze. Pops are in the chance category. But it's not out of the
question they may need to get raised more in some areas as the cams
start to reach this time period. Instability, while in place is not
overly impressive. Regardless, there is still a risk for
thunderstorms. Steering winds won't be too strong, so some storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall if they are slow moving or if
there is back-building. Luckily, the precipitation will
dissipate in the evening. However, more showers are expected to
develop over the coastal waters overnight and move towards the
coast. It's possible the pops may be a little too high overland
at night. Finally, heights and 850 mb temperatures are now
hinting that temperatures may rise above normal, but before the
precipitation begins.

Tuesday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure off the
southeast coast. At the surface, the broad low initially approaching
our area is forecasted start moving northwards and weaken. It is
expected to get absorbed in the overall flow by the nighttime
hours. Pwats appear to trend downward. But they may remain slightly
above normal for this time of year. Models have the best rainfall
potential over the charleston tri-county area and this is where we
have the highest pops. Instability is highest near the coast, then
quickly lowering inland. Again, it's not overly impressive and the
thunderstorm threat was capped at slight. The precipitation will
quickly dissipate in the evening. However, more showers are expected
to develop over the coastal waters overnight and move towards the
coast in easterly flow, possibly making it to our coastal counties
just before daybreak. Temperatures will be a few degrees above
normal.

Wednesday: the mid-levels will consist of high pressure off the
southeast coast and long wave troughing over the central u.S.

The axis of the trough will slowly move eastward, which will push
the high further offshore and cause our heights to lower. At the
surface, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Most
of the activity will stay fare away from us. But models at least
show chance pops and this is reflected in the forecast. Unlike
previous days, the overnight hours will see more precipitation
coverage as the front approaches. Heights and 850 mb temperatures
will again lead to another day of above normal temperatures.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
Wednesday night a cold front will be slowly approaching from the
northwest. This trend will continue into Thursday. The front may
then stall over or nearby our area Friday. Another cold front is
then forecasted to approach from the northwest on Saturday. The
rainfall potential will depend on the approximate location of the
fronts. For now it appears to equate to above normal pops. However,
more adjustments to the forecast are expected.

Aviation 10z Sunday through Thursday
MostlyVFR. Risk for isolated showers in the vicinity of both
kchs and ksav will increase by 15z and continue through early
afternoon before activity shifts west of the terminals. Direct
impacts are possible, but durations will be very short. Could
see some high-end MVFR CIGS develop at either for a few hours
after sunrise, but opted to hold conditionsVFR for now given
low confidence and CIGS will be tied into where isolated showers
occur.

Extended aviation outlook: multiple atmospheric features could
bring brief periods of convection, especially during the
daylight hours. Brief flight restrictions are possible.

Marine
Through tonight: an easterly flow regime will hold through
tonight. Winds are expected to tip to the northeast late as a
coastal trough approaches from the east. Winds will remain less
than 15 kt with seas 2-4 ft.

Monday through Thursday: a weakening stationary front to our
north will slowly approach on Monday. Meanwhile, a broad area of
low pressure will approach from the atlantic. These two
features will cause the pressure gradient to increase, causing
winds seas to trend upwards. However, no small craft advisories
are expected because the worst conditions will be far to our
east. If anything, seas may reach 5 ft across portions of the
charleston waters and our outer ga waters during this time. The
stationary front will dissipate across our area Monday night as
the low continues to approach. The low is expected to weaken
Tuesday, then move northwards before it gets to our area,
getting absorbed into the atmospheric flow Tuesday night. A cold
front is forecasted to approach from the west towards the
second half of the week and then possibly stall over our area.

No advisories are anticipated.

Rip currents: latest ww3 and nwps output show swells dampening
to 1 ft by the time they reach the beaches today with periods
averaging 10-11 seconds. This typically supports a mid-range low
risk for rip currents with winds remaining less than 15 kt
despite increasing astronomical influences from the approaching
full moon. A 2 ft swell with a similar period does tip the risk
back into the moderate category, but a swell height of this
magnitude reaching the beaches seems a bit of a stretch based on
the latest model data. Ultimately decided to maintain a low-
end moderate rip current risk given it is a weekend with good
weather and to keep continuity from the previous forecast. This
also blends better with the moderate rip current risk areas
outlined by wfos wilmington and jacksonville.

There could be an enhanced risk of rip currents early this week
if swell associated with the tropical wave over the atlantic
makes it to our beaches.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA 11 mi48 min 75°F 83°F1017.9 hPa
41033 40 mi46 min S 9.7 G 14 79°F 83°F1016.9 hPa
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 46 mi54 min SE 5.1 75°F 1017 hPa (+1.0)73°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 48 mi69 min Calm 72°F 1018 hPa71°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 48 mi64 min S 3.9 G 5.8 82°F 84°F3 ft1016.7 hPa (+0.5)70°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hunter U. S. Army Airfield, GA3 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair72°F69°F91%1016.9 hPa
Savannah-Hilton Head International Airport, GA7 mi61 minN 310.00 miA Few Clouds71°F71°F100%1017.5 hPa
Hilton Head Island, Hilton Head Airport, SC24 mi64 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------E9--E7E9E7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3N6NE5E10--E10E12E14E14E11E10E6E3Calm--------------------
2 days agoNE3N4E7NE8
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E11E13E10E9E5E6CalmE5E4E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Savannah (Bull Street), Georgia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.