Sunrise 6:26 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 10:15 AM   Moonset 12:09 AM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 152 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
This afternoon - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers early, then showers with a slight chance of tstms late. Tonight - SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds, becoming se 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. Rain likely in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely. Wed - SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 152 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A storm system will bring active weather through Wednesday. High pressure will build in late week before another storm system moves through this weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 131802 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 202 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring active weather through Wednesday.
High pressure will build in late week before another storm system moves through this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Extensive high cirrus along with some mid-level cloudiness continues to overspread the forecast area this morning out ahead of a developing upper trough across the central U.S. Weak moist isentropic ascent will lift north through the area, bringing scattered light to moderate rain to the area. Later this afternoon, somewhat greater coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms should move through southeast GA in association with a convective complex driven by Gulf Coast shortwave. The cloud cover will limit instability so we are not concerned about severe weather today.

Tonight: The overall convective trend of upstream thunderstorms could play a large role in precip chances across southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, at least during evening hours. Given latest model trends, precip chances have been lowered to 40-50% during evening hours. However, there should be an uptick in precip coverage and thunderstorm potential during the second half of the night as isentropic ascent increases along/ahead of a warm front lifting north into the region approaching daybreak while h5 shortwave energy continues to traverse the Southeast along the eastern edge of the mid-lvl trough to the northwest. Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms could impact the local area by a few hours prior to daybreak, and a few stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out with increasing instability locally as the warm front shifts north into the area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
To start on Tuesday a mid-level trough will be positioned over the central Mississippi Valley. This trough will then trek eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic states into Wednesday, pushing off the East Coast on Thursday. At the surface a warm front will be to the north of the forecast area on Tuesday, with a cold front pushing through later on Wednesday. High pressure will briefly build into the region on Thursday.

The most active part of the forecast is Tuesday, with numerous showers likely ongoing to start the morning. There is significant uncertainty in how the precipitation coverage is going to evolve through the day, but most guidance points to the heaviest rainfall remaining offshore. However, it is possible that some of the heavy rainfall could impact the immediate coastline, especially the SC coastline. Generally around 1 to 1.5 inches is expected over the forecast area, with some locations around 2 inches in Charleston and Berkeley Counties. An additional point of uncertainty is the convective evolution throughout the day on Tuesday. Models are not in agreement regarding the amount of instability. The forecast includes mention of a chance of thunder, as shear values are impressive and only a little bit of instability would likely trigger a thunderstorm. While the overall severe threat remains low, a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Thick cloud cover on Tuesday will yield high temperatures only in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Precipitation will shift offshore Tuesday night, leaving only some lingering showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures on Wednesday will likely reach into the mid to upper 80s. All precipitation should clear the forecast area by Thursday morning with clearing skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Zonal flow will develop aloft on Friday, with a shortwave poised to ripple through into Saturday. Broad ridging will then build in for the remainder of the weekend. An active weather pattern is expected Friday and Saturday, as showers and thunderstorms associated with the passing shortwave aloft and surface cold front impact the region. Temperatures through the period are expected to be above normal.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A warm front will lift north late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This afternoon and tonight, moisture and forcing north of the front will spread occasional light rain showers over the terminals. Most guidance shows the brunt of the afternoon precipitation shifting off the coast by mid-evening, then mainly dry for much of the overnight hours. The statistical guidance seems particularly aggressive with lowering ceilings this evening. We are leaning more toward the SREF which is more optimistic in keeping the MVFR/IFR ceilings across the SC Midlands through much of the night.

At least MVFR ceilings seem fairly likely shortly after daybreak Tuesday as the warm front lifts north through the area.
There should also be a better chance for robust convection during the day Tuesday, with occasional vsby restrictions as well.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to the terminals from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: High pressure will linger across local waters for much of the day, before shifting further offshore in advance of a trough well inland. Expect marine conditions to remain quiet through the afternoon with south-southeast winds slowly increasing mid-late afternoon to around 10-15 kt. Seas will also slowly build during the day, ranging between 1-2 ft across nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across offshore Georgia waters. An uptick in winds and seas is expected during the overnight period as a warm front slowly lifts north late. South-southeast winds should approach 15-20 kt across most waters after midnight, and could gust to 25 kt across Georgia waters late. Seas will also build overnight, reaching 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could eventually be needed across Georgia waters starting late tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday: A warm front will be positioned to the north of the marine waters on Tuesday, with SW winds 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas should average 4 to 6 ft across the Charleston County nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory may be required Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Seas 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A cold front is forecast to push through the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with winds shifting from the SW to the NW, remaining around 15 knots.
Seas will continue to diminish, with 2 to 3 ft forecast on Thursday.
Friday and into the weekend SW winds around 10 knots and seas 2 to 3 ft will prevail.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Savannah (Bull Street)
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Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     8.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     6.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah (Bull Street), Georgia, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:57 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:36 AM EDT     1.50 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:41 PM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:00 PM EDT     1.86 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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