Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 12:13 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM

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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 912 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds, becoming S 3 ft at 7 seconds. Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 3 seconds. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and sw 1 foot at 3 seconds. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 912 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A cold front will move through late today, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 151332 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 932 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through late today, followed by high pressure into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
This morning: The day is off to a quiet start with no ongoing convection and areas of low stratocumulus across the forecast area. This cloud cover will gradually mix out over the next couple of hours and we might have a clear period before diurnal cumulus begins developing this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows a well defined shortwave upstream of the area across the Tennessee Valley and plenty of mid-level dry air streaming across the Southeast. Surface analysis shows a front situated upstream of the forecast area that will steadily track to the east and into the area this afternoon. Surface winds will be west to west-southwest into the afternoon, which will keep the diurnal sea breeze pinned along the coast, despite mid to upper 80s for highs inland. We should be convection-free through the morning and into the mid afternoon thanks to the westerly flow, some mixing out of dew points, and the dry air aloft. However, beginning around mid afternoon the pinned sea breeze could serve as the initiation of convection. This seems most likely along the Charleston County coast, approximately in the 3-5 pm time period. Additional thunderstorms will be possible, primarily across the South Carolina counties. For any storms that do develop, the ambient environment will be supportive of a low end severe threat. Model soundings show MLCAPE values of 2,000 J/kg with DCAPE values approaching 1,000 J/kg. There is also still about 50 kts of mid-level flow and lapse rates could approach 6.5 C/km. All this to say, we will have the potential for severe weather, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts and large hail will also be possible. Convective coverage is expected to be limited to isolated to scattered which will help keep the overall severe threat more limited. The main time period will be roughly 3-8 pm.

Tonight: Showers and/or thunderstorms will likely weaken considerably and/or shift offshore with a weak sfc front shortly after sunset, ending precip across the entire area for the rest of the night. Dry high pressure will then settle in for the night with temps dipping into the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/around 70 near the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The local forecast area will be positioned along the southern periphery of a mid level trough situated off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A nice day is expected on Thursday, owing to the NW flow aloft and high pressure briefly building in at the surface. High temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s, with mostly clear skies and dry conditions forecast. Overnight lows Thursday will be in the mid 60s inland with 70 along the beaches.

The flow aloft will briefly transition to a zonal flow on Friday, with surface high pressure retreating out into the Atlantic waters. To the west a mid level trough and associated surface cold front will begin trekking towards the Deep South.
Ahead of the approaching cold front isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the far inland zones late Friday. Otherwise, another rain-free forecast with high temperatures again reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be rather mild, given the increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front. Low temperatures are forecast to only dip into the mid 60s inland with low 70s along the coastline.

Saturday is expected to be another active weather day as a low pressure system impacts the forecast area. A warm front is forecast to lift northward early, with a cold front pushing through later. PWATs are forecast to reach 1.5+ inches Saturday afternoon. Additionally, both the GFS/ECMWF show a decent amount of instability across the region (around 1000 J/kg of CAPE).
Given the favorable environment, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms as well as thick cloud cover will likely hinder high temperatures on Saturday, only reaching into the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The aforementioned mid level trough will slip offshore Saturday night/Sunday morning, with broad ridging building in behind it.
High pressure will also build in at the surface and dominate through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.
Apart from Sunday afternoon which could see a greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms due to lingering dynamics from the departing trough, rain chances through early next week remain minimal as subsidence builds into the region. Under plentiful sun, ridging aloft, and surface high pressure temperatures each day will reach into the upper 80s with some locations across southeastern GA possibly touching 90.

AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR cigs will likely persist at the SAV terminal for the next 1-2 hours (12-14Z) until sfc winds increase and dry air filters into the region from the west. Low clouds could also briefly impact CHS/JZI terminals early this morning, where tempo MVFR cigs are in place between 12-13Z. Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals thereafter, but gusty west-southwest winds around 20 kt are anticipated much of the afternoon. There is a small risk for showers and/or thunderstorms near the CHS/JZI terminal late this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to all terminals on Saturday as a low pressure system impacts the region.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient will persist across local waters today ahead of a weak cold front advancing toward the coast late day and early night. The pattern supports southwest winds generally up to 15-20 kt by late morning and through afternoon hours, before stronger wind fields shift to the north-northeast and the pressure gradient weakens post fropa. Cold air advection behind the front will be somewhat marginal, keeping marine conditions below advisory levels through the night. However, winds will shift to west and continue to gust in the 15-20 kt range. Seas should generally range between 3-5 ft today, highest across offshore Georgia waters and Charleston County waters. Overnight seas will subside to 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: Conditions through the period are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will briefly build in at the surface on Thursday, with winds generally around 10 knots and seas averaging 2 to 3 ft. A cold front will push through the region on Saturday, shifting winds more to the W and surging slightly to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are expected to build on Saturday as well, increasing to 3 to 4 ft. By Monday winds will shift to the NW, generally around 10 knots with seas diminishing to around 1 to 2 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Daufuskie Landing
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:42 AM EDT     6.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:24 AM EDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT     5.98 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:45 PM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Daufuskie Landing, Daufuskie Island, New River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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